The winning formula in fantasy football is simple: Acquire the most productive players with the least resistance to points production as you can.
That's why I helped create a system that predicts player performance and provides the actual strength of an opponent and actual player production values. When used, this sytem has proven to be up to 37 percent more accurate than the metrics that everyone else in your league is using.
The system gives you a "Player Rating," "Defense Rating," and a third "Matchup Rating." The ratings are based on the most advanced and accurate mathematical algorithm in fantasy football, and take into account the following factors:
» Adjusted Player scoring based on strength of their previous opponents *
*» Adjusted Defense scoring based on the strength of the players they have faced at each position *
*» Whether the player and/or defense plays better at home or away *
*» How the player compares against other players within their same position *
*» How defenses compare against other defenses against the same positions *
*» ... and many more!
Sound complicated? Don't worry -- it's simple to understand. All you need to know is that the player, defense or matchup with the higher rating is the better option. That's it. Leave the number crunching to the geeks.
Use this system as the basis for your fantasy decisions to take the guesswork out of winning in fantasy football and get the edge on the competition.
EDITOR'S NOTE: The defense ratings for this week are based on numbers from the first four weeks of the 2014 regular season. "Statistically" a three week data sample out of a 16 week fantasy season is enough to draw valuable conclusions. The data continues to become more accurate each week. Plan on coming back for fresh algorithm-based ratings that you cannot get anywhere else!
Weekly Matchup Ranges
Below are the BEST and WORST defensive ratings against each position. The higher the number, the better the matchup:
Legend
Here's an easy breakdown of how each player module works. When these terms are mentioned in the text (i.e. "best") they are corresponding to these ratings and colors:
Expect More:
Players who could exceed expectations this week based on the weakness of their opponent.
QB
Ben Roethlisberger is a popular starting option this week because of the Jaguars' No. 1 fantasy points against (FPA) ranking. Although the algorithm adjusts the Jags to the third-easiest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks, it still means good things for Roethlisberger this week. Big Ben started off slow this season due to three straight "bad" rated matchups, allowing him just 12 fantasy points a game. Last week he faced his first easy matchup of the season and his production jumped to 22 fantasy points. Like most quarterbacks, he can produce more when facing easy matchups. The Jaguars are Roethlisberger's best matchup of the year having already given up 14 or more fantasy points to quarterbacks rated lower than Roethlisberger (Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles). This week, Roethlisberger should easily continue his recent upward trend of fantasy production allowing fantasy owners to "expect more" than his 15 fantasy points per game average. Forecast:The Jaguars are Roethlisberger's second-best matchup of the season. His next one is against the Colts in Week 8 and then his last easy matchup is Week 10 when he faces the Jets. He also faces four "bad" rated matchups within that period. [Recommended Usage: QB1]
If you are in an extremely desperate situation with your fantasy quarterback this week, perhaps you can find help in Rams quarterback Austin Davis. So far this season the Rams have attempted passes of 20 or more yards 14 times and have connected on 66.7 percent of those attempts, which leads the NFL. Certainly playing from behind helps those numbers but Davis has also been efficient. His 72.3 completion percentage is tops in the league among quarterbacks with at least 90 pass attempts. Remember that before the bye, Davis scored 20 points against Dallas. This week the Rams face the Eagles, who adjust to the No. 4 easiest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. They have already given up double digit points to poorly-rated quarterbacks like Chad Henne and Kirk Cousins. This week is the best matchup of the season for Davis and one that should make it easy to "expect more" than his 12 fantasy points per game average. If you are in trouble at quarterback, this matchup could be a nice one-week fix. Forecast: Davis is not worth much of a hold after this week as the Rams face the second-toughest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks next week in the 49ers. Beyond that, his schedule is also pretty bleak. [Recommended Usage: LOW QB1/QB2]
Coming off the worst game of his career, it is hard not to "expect more" from Foles this week. He enjoyed three straight "best" rated matchups to start the season and averaged 19 fantasy points per game. Once faced with his first "worst" rated matchup in Week 4, he responded with just four fantasy points. This week, Foles faces what appears to be the FPA ranked 17th-easiest matchup in the Rams defense, which is nothing to get too excited about. However, this is where the algorithm does its magic. The Rams actually adjust to the ninth-easiest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. The adjustment is due to the Rams facing two poorly rated quarterbacks in Josh McCown and Matt Cassel and giving up and average of 15 fantasy points against them. The return of Eagles' tackle, Lane Johnson, this week allows Todd Herremans to move back to right guard, greatly improving the Eagles' struggling offensive line. This addition should give Foles much more room to work. Curiously, the previously hyped Rams defensive front line has only caused one sack so far this season. Forecast: Foles' best matchups of the season are behind him. He faced three of the five easiest defenses against fantasy quarterbacks in Weeks 1 to 3 and doesn't face one again until Week 16. This week and next week are good matchups but then an argument can be made to sell high on Foles as he faces six bad matchups coming out of his Week 7 bye. [Recommended Usage: LOW QB1/QB2]
RB
Fantasy owners drafted Andre Ellington because of his big play potential. Even in his first three low fantasy point producing games, Ellington is still fifth in the NFL in percentage of plays of 15 yards or more. He's averaging 4.47 yards per carry and has already faced two of the league's toughest matchups for fantasy running backs. Ellington is coming off a much needed bye week that gave him a chance to rest his injured foot, just in time to face his best matchup of the year. The Broncos have an FPA ranking that makes them look like the 11th-easiest matchup for fantasy running backs, but the algorithm adjusts them to the No. 1 easiest due to the strength of the opponents they've faced. No starting running back has scored less than eight fantasy points against Denver this season and Ellington averages eight fantasy points per game. As a result owners can "expect more" from Ellington this week. Forecast:Ellington has a rough matchup against the Redskins next week and then his schedule goes back and forth from bad to good to finish the regular season. Weeks 13 and 15 are highlights of his remaining schedule making him a good RB2 or flex later in the season. [Recommended Usage: RB2]
Jeremy Hill has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners this season. He was likely drafted as a backup but has been able to produce, even in a limited role. His worst game this year came against his toughest matchup but he has averaged over 12 fantasy points per game against the "easy" ones. He has been seeing an average of eight touches per game behind Giovani Bernard with a season high 15 touches against the Falcons. The Falcons were the best matchup that the Bengals running backs have faced all year and they have another "best" rated matchup again this week in the Patriots. Hill should see plenty of work against a Patriots defense that has given up points to backup running backs in each game this season. This week should provide an opportunity for Hill to exceed his nine fantasy points per game average as the Bengals will likely run the ball well against the league's third-easiest defense against running backs. Forecast: You definitely want to be invested in the Bengals running game if you like good schedules. No other team has better matchups for their running backs to finish the season. Hill will certainly be a beneficiary as he faces only three more "bad" rated matchups between now and Week 16. [Recommended Usage: FLEX]
After a promising start to the season with two consecutive games with over 10 fantasy points, LeSean McCoy has failed to exceed three fantasy points in his last two outings. It might comfort fantasy owners to know that McCoy has averaged 13 fantasy points a game against "better" rated defenses and only two points a game against "worst" rated defenses in 2014. The good news is that McCoy will not see another "worst" rated defense until Week 14. This week, McCoy faces a Rams defense that appears middle of the road because of their 20th FPA rank, but the Rams actually adjust to the fourth-easiest matchup when you account for their opponent strength. More good news, Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson is back from suspension this week. Last season, the Eagles averaged 4.55 yards per carry behind the right tackle position and 5.29 yards per carry around the right edge. This season, the Eagles average only 2.0 yards per carry behind the right tackle and 3.6 yards per carry around the right edge. The difference has been Johnson's absence, and it could be just what Shady needs to produce against this great matchup. Forecast: Part of the blame for McCoy's slow start can be attributed to having already faced two of the top five toughest defenses for fantasy running backs this year. But he does not face another top-five defense until the fantasy playoffs. Until then there are five easy matchups waiting for him. [Recommended Usage: LOW RB1]
WR
Fantasy owners were excited after seeing Percy Harvin get 11 combined touches and produce 10 fantasy points to start off the 2014 season. His production has slowed since then, due in part to the fact that the Seahawks have faced two of the top-10 toughest defenses against fantasy wide receivers in the last two weeks. Harvin only averaged six fantasy points per game against that level of competition. This week, Harvin faces a Redskins secondary that is fifth-easiest matchup for fantasy wide receivers. Harvin should certainly be able to produce after receiving 21 touches in his first three games. He should remain a big part of the offensive game plan against a Redskins defense that will make it easy for him to exceed his seve points per game fantasy average. Forecast: This week is Harvin's second-best matchup of the season -- he faces his best matchup in Week 7 against the Rams. However, there are five "bad" rated defenses waiting for him from Weeks 6 to 12. [Recommended Usage: WR2]
It may seem like chance that Keenan Allen finally came alive in Week 4, with career highs in both catches and yardage, but really it was just his matchup. Prior to Week 4, Allen faced defenses that were all rated in the top half of the league against fantasy wide receivers. Allen averaged just four fantasy points against that level of competition this year, after also failing to outplay tough matchups for much of last year as well. In Week 4, Allen faced his first "better" matchup of the season and tripled his fantasy points production. This week he faces his first "best" rated matchup of the season against the lowly Jets secondary who are the third-easiest rated defense against fantasy wide receivers. The Jets have been regularly gashed against the opposition's best receiver and Allen is the Chargers top option. He should have no problem exceeding his six fantasy point per game average this week. Forecast:You can feel good about Allen next week as he faces his second easy matchup in a row. There are four more easy matchups coming between now and the fantasy playoffs, but beware of the two "worst" rated defenses waiting for him in Weeks 14 and 15. [Recommended Usage: WR2]
Victor Cruz has been coming back to life with two consecutive 100-yard games after a rocky start to the season. Along with the rest of the Giants' offense, Cruz has awakened under new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's West Coast system. Last week was the first easy matchup for Cruz and he rose to the occasion. He even did well against a "bad" matchup the week prior (although most of that production came in one play). This week Cruz faces the Falcons defense that is the 17th ranked FPA defense for wide receivers, but the algorithm adjusts them to the seventh-easiest matchup. This adjustment is due mostly to the poor quality of wide receivers that the Falcons have allowed to produce against them. Cruz and the Giants are heating up, and owners can certainly "expect more" from Cruz than his nine fantasy points per game average. Forecast:The Falcons are Cruz's second good matchup in a row after starting off against three bad ones. He has another "better" rated matchup in the Eagles next week then three bad ones in a row. If you make it to the fantasy playoffs, Cruz will face two of the top-five easiest defenses for wide receivers in Weeks 15 and 16. Those are his best two matchups of the season. [Recommended Usage: WR2]
Brain Quick has been off fantasy radars so far this season and is still only 13 percent owned in NFL.com fantasy leagues despite being the Rams' clear No. 1 receiving option. He was targeted nine times in each of the first two games this year and turned just four targets into 12 fantasy points in Week 3. If you are desperate for a one-week plug in, Quick should continue to produce as he faces his third easy matchup of the year against the Eagles. The Eagles are a bit tougher than their No. 4 FPA ranking may indicate, but they still rate as the 10th-easiest matchup for opposing wide receivers. The Eagles have given up double digit fantasy points to every opposing No. 1 receiver they've faced, and all of those receivers save for one have been rated lower than Quick. He is a high upside start with a little risk, but his situation in Week 5 should allow you to "expect more" from him than his 9 fantasy points per game average. Forecast:The Rams wide receivers have four more "better" rated matchups in the next month, but then they finish the fantasy season with some of the worst matchups and as a result, Quick and Co. are definitely not worth long term holds. [Recommended Usage: WR3/FLEX]
TE
Owen Daniels assumed a familiar role in Gary Kubiak's offense after Dennis Pitta went down to injury. Daniels has become Joe Flacco's safety valve over the middle of the field with a steady dose of about five targets per game. Daniels has been very matchup dependent, averaging only three fantasy points per game against "bad" or "worst" matchups. His only big fantasy game of the year came against a "best" rated Steelers defense. This week, he again faces another "best" rated defense in the Colts. The Colts are the third-easiest rated defense against fantasy tight ends. They have given up monster games to highly-rated tight ends this year, and even gave up eight fantasy points to Zach Ertz, who has almost the exact same rating as Daniels (-0.09). Daniels is averaging just six fantasy points per game and the matchup this week should give owners reason to "expect more" production. Forecast:Last week, Daniels faced one of his worst matchups of the year. This week is his second easiest of the year. Enjoy it while you can as easy matchups will be tough to come by for Daniels after Week 7. [Recommended Usage: LOW TE1]
Heath Miller finally became a fantasy producer in Week 4 as he turned 11 targets into 14 fantasy points, his highest point production in a game since 2012. Repeating a productive performance might be a tall order, but there are some interesting numbers that indicate this could be a possibility in Week 5. Miller leads the league in tight end slot routes with 42 and has a catch rate of 100 percent when targeted on those routes. Linebackers often cover the tight ends on these routes and Jaguars' linebacker Geno Hayes ranks toward the bottom of the league as a pass-covering linebacker. Also in Miller's favor is that the Jaguars are one of the worst defenses in the league against fantasy tight ends. Miller is normally not considered a fantasy starter, but his decent tight end rating against the very poor rated Jaguars defense this week makes him a great option. Forecast:Prior to last week, Miller faced defenses in the top 12 against fantasy tight ends each week. Miller can serve as a bye week spot start in Weeks 8 and 9, but the favorable matchups stop there. [Recommended Usage: TE1]
If you are looking for a desperation flier at tight end this week, the algorithm likes Seattle's Luke Willson. Willson has just one reception this year for one yard. Willson has played 53 snaps through the first three games but will now replace injured starter Zach Miller in the lineup. Last season, Willson played 60 and 61 snaps in the two games he started in place of Miller. The increase in snaps will help Willson's chances of out-producing his 2.5 fantasy points per game average, but so will his opponent this week. The Redskins are the eighth-easiest matchup for opposing tight ends and got destroyed by Larry Donnell last week. If you are desperate, then you can "expect more" from Willson. Forecast:It is not clear how long Willson will be the lone starter, but this week and next week are both "better" rated matchups that should hopefully help him make the most of his opportunity. [Recommended Usage: LOW TE1]
D/ST
PHI vs. STL: The Eagles defense is not great, but this is all about the matchup as they get the Rams at home this week. The Rams only score 18 points, and allow 2 sacks and 1.5 interceptions per game. The Eagles defense should be on your waiver wire so if you are in a pinch, they should perform better than usual this week.
CLE at TEN: You may have forgotten about the Browns as they were on bye last week. This gave them one extra week to prepare for the Titans, who are having major quarterback issues. The Titans give up 3 sacks and 1.5 interceptions a game and have only managed 15 points per game. The Browns have some very good talent that just needs to wake up, and this could be just the opponent to help them do so.
Expect Less:
Players who could fall short of expectations this week based on the strength of their opponent.
QB
Andy Dalton has been extremely consistent as a fantasy producer this year. Although his Week 5 opponent, the Patriots, appear to be the FPA second- toughest matchup for opposing fantasy quarterbacks, the algorithm adjusts them to the sixth-toughest. Dalton is holding on to the ball more than most quarterbacks this season: 18.6 percent of his dropbacks are for 2.6 seconds or more, which is the longest per snap time in the NFL. It is a testament to the Bengals excellent line that has allowed pressure on just 15.1 percent of Dalton's dropbacks. But, the Patriots' Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Jerod Mayo all are solid blitzers, giving Bill Belichick plenty of options against a quarterback like Dalton. Dalton is averaging a solid 15 fantasy points per game, but owners can "expect less" from him as he likely faces more pressure this week than any of his opponents have provided so far this season. Forecast: Dalton's two best matchups of the season are coming up in Weeks 7 and 9. However, he will get a steady stream of five "bad" rated opponents after that. [Recommended Usage: LOW QB1]
RB
Sit Marshawn Lynch? Absolutely not. But, like we told you in the "Fantasy Number Crunch" article last week, you should be wary of starting your running backs against Washington -- the second-toughest rated defense against fantasy running backs. Last week, they held Rashad Jennings to just five fantasy points and it is no coincidence. Defensive end Chris Baker is the second-ranked run stopper in the NFL, fellow end Clifton Geathers is sixth and linebacker Trent Murphy is in the top 15. This is a unit built to stop the run and they do it well. Seattle's offensive line is ranked fourth in the NFL in run blocking averaging 4.34 yards per carry, but Lynch and co. have not faced this good of a defensive front seven yet this season. The Chargers were the third-toughest rated matchup when Lynch faced them, and Lynch had his season low output of 12 fantasy points. Lynch has not proven to be "matchup proof" this season and even though he could post the most points scored against the Redskins this week, the numbers indicate that you should "expect less" production from him than his 20 fantasy points per game average. Forecast: Lynch has four straight good matchups in a row starting in Week 7, including his best of the season against the Rams. However, from Weeks 11 to 16 he has one of the worst-rated schedules of any running back in the NFL. [Recommended Usage: LOW RB1]
Chris Ivory has quietly become a top-20 rated fantasy running back despite having to share carries with Chris Johnson. Ivory is the 15th-ranked running back in fantasy point production, but the algorithm rates him as the 20th running back due to his inability to take advantage of weak opponents. Ivory has only faced two "bad" matchups this year, yet still produced on par with his usual numbers. This week Ivory and the Jets run game face the Chargers who are the third-toughest matchup for opposing running backs, even though their FPA ranking shows them as the 16th-easiest. The Chargers have already held one of the highest-rated running backs this season, Marshawn Lynch, to his season-low 12 fantasy points. They have faced other "average" rated running backs similar to Ivory and held them to average production. This matchup is shaping up to be one where Ivory owners can "expect less" from him than his 12 points per game average. Forecast: The Chargers are a brief speed bump in Ivory's schedule. The next two weeks feature Ivory's two easiest matchups of the year. Do not be discouraged after this week as he should get right back on track. [Recommended Usage: FLEX]
Alfred Morris is the ninth-ranked running back in fantasy points production, but the algorithm rates him as the 15th-best running back due to low production against some of his lesser opponents. Morris has performed well against his two "better" rated matchups this season, averaging 15 fantasy points in those three games. However, against his one "bad" matchup, the Eagles, he scored his season low. Last week he bounced back in a "better"-rated matchup against the Giants. His owners were lucky Morris salvaged the good matchup with a 20-yard touchdown in the third quarter since he had just five touches following that score. If not for that score, Morris could have under-produced against another good matchup. Granted, that game was out of hand so his low producing game against an easy Texans defense in Week 1 is a better indicator. This week, Morris faces by far his toughest matchup in the Seahawks. They are the toughest defense against fantasy running backs, having not allowed a running back to score more than seven fantasy points against them all year. Morris' 13 fantasy points per game average could be in jeopardy. Forecast: The Seahawks are Morris' worst matchup of the year. He does have five "bad" rated matchups between Week 6 and 12, but if you hang on for the fantasy playoffs you will love his schedule. [Recommended Usage: RB2]
WR
If you had been trolling around your waiver wire this week, you may have come across Brandon LaFell. He had a season-high 18 fantasy points on 10 targets last week and may look like a great player to plug in your lineup. If you look closer at the numbers, you see that prior to last week LaFell had only 13 total targets. His big Week 4 came mostly on one play in a game that only saw only three active receivers for the Patriots. The Bengals will offer a stiffer challenge than the Chiefs did and LaFell will be hard-pressed to exceed his 11 fantasy points per game average in this contest. You should be advised to "expect less" from LaFell this week rather than expecting another Week 4 performance. Forecast: You could stash LaFell as a deep league bye week replacement for Weeks 7 and 8 when he faces two top-three easy matchups. But the Patriots passing game is in for trouble Weeks 9 through 14 where they face four of top-five toughest defenses against receivers. [Recommended Usage: WR4/SIT]
Terrance Williams has been a pleasant fantasy surprise for those owners who put him into their starting lineups last week. He out-produced his matchup and turned seven targets into 20 fantasy points. That performance is what puts him atop the "Fantasy Points Per Touch" (FPPT) rankings for wide receivers. Williams has certainly done the most with his limited opportunities. He has only 20 targets on the season, which is in the Nate Washington and Torrey Smith range, yet he is currently the 18th scoring receiver in fantasy. However, he's only the 24th-rated from the algorithm as he has failed to consistently outplay his matchups. Williams did a great job last week, but in previous matchups against "easy" opponents he was average. His "Target to TD" ratio (5 to 1) is not realistic over an extended period, and this week he faces the Texans who are middle-of-the-pack against fantasy wide receivers. Forecast: This is Williams' second "bad" rated matchup in a row. There are two more after this and then he finishes the season against five easy matchups in his last eight games. [Recommended Usage: WR3]
TE
Greg Olsen has been a solid fantasy producer in the first month of the 2014 season. He is the fourth-most targeted tight end and is in the top 10 for fantasy points scored at his position. Yet, he is matchup dependent for production. His two best games came against his two best matchups and he had his worst game of the year against a "worst" rated defense just last week. You may want to use caution this week as he faces his former team, the Bears. You may notice that they currently rank as the FPA 10th-toughest matchup, but they held two highly-rated tight ends to their lowest point totals of the year, making the Bears the algorithm-adjusted third-toughest defense for opposing tight ends. Considering Olsen's inability to outplay his matchups this season, you can "expect less" this week. Forecast: This is the second "worst" rated matchup in a row for Olsen and he has one more next week against the Bengals. There are two more easy defenses after that but then nothing but bad matchups to finish the season. [Recommended Usage: LOW TE1]
D/ST
CAR vs. CHI: It may be tempting to start this "name brand" unit against mistake-prone Jay Cutler this week, but keep in mind that the Bears give up only one interception along and two sacks per game. They score more than 22 points and put up over 350 yards of offense weekly. The Panthers have not had an interception since Week 2 and have given up a score on 12 of the past 16 drives by the opposing offense.
HOU vs. DAL: The Texans have been one of the best fantasy defenses in the league so far this year, but the Cowboys have cleaned things up on offense. They are giving up only two sacks and one interception and average over 28 points per contest. They also bring the best rush attack in the NFL against the sixth-easiest defense to run against.
Week 6 Forecast:
Want to get the jump on bye weeks in Week 6? Don't wait until next week's waivers, grab these guys now and enjoy their tasty match ups before they are even on your opponents' radar:
QB:Drew Stanton vs WAS, Eli Manning at PHI, Joe Flacco at TB
RB:Chris Ivory vs DEN, Jeremy Hill vs CAR, Bishop Sankey vs JAX, Trent Richardson at HOU
WR:Devin Hester vs CHI, John Brown vs WAS, Miles Austin vs PIT
TE:Owen Daniels at TB, Dwayne Allen at HOU
DST:TEN at JAX, SD at OAK, BAL at TB
-- Chris Anthony is a guest contributor to NFL.com, hailing from Fantasy Omatic. You can follow him on Twitter @FantasyOmatic. Be sure to check back each week for more analytics-based analysis as the algorithm will only get more accurate over time!
