Whether you employ the late-round quarterback draft strategy, or you want to snag one of the elite options early, you should be on the lookout for must-own players in every round. Sometimes the quarterback you want falls into your lap, sometimes you have to reach for him, and once in a while you can wait until the very last round to scoop up a high-upside sleeper. So no matter what round you're looking to draft your fantasy signal-caller, I have highlighted several options that I consider must-own fantasy quarterbacks for the 2016 season at their current ADP, for one reason or another. I'm not saying that if you draft Matthew Stafford, he's going to win your league for you. But at his current asking price and given his strong finish last year, I think he's undervalued for the upcoming campaign. Take a look at the list and breakdown below, and feel free to slander my takes on Twitter @MattFranchise. It's cool, I'm used to it.
The consistently elite bargain
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks:
If you're going to draft a quarterback early, Russell Wilson is the best bargain among the top five quarterbacks being drafted. Targeting Wilson in Rounds 5-7 will allow fantasy managers to lay their roster foundation with a couple of elite players at other key positions prior to locking up a quarterback.
Wilson has finished as fantasy's QB3 the last two seasons, and he's only getting better. In 2015, he eclipsed the 4,000 passing yard threshold for the first time in his career. He also posted a career high 34 touchdown passes and a mere eight interceptions. His 68.1 percent completion rate ranked him fourth best among relevant fantasy quarterbacks and he added 553 rush yards (34.5 rush yards per game), third most among all quarterbacks last year. Since Wilson entered the league in 2012 he has finished no worse than third in rushing yards among quarterbacks in any given season. That rushing production adds a ton of value on a weekly basis and helps drive up his already consistent point totals. When a signal-caller is garnering at least three to five fantasy points via rushing yards every week, there is less need to worry about a potential dud outing.
Much of Wilson's impressive year-end numbers had to do with his second-half performance (which will be difficult to replicate, but is still worth noting). Coming out of a Week 9 bye last year, Seattle's record was 4-4. In Weeks 11-15, Wilson led his squad on a five-game winning streak, tossing 19 touchdown passes (adding one rushing score) and zero interceptions in that span. Nearly 60 percent of those 19 touchdown passes were caught by Doug Baldwin, whom Seattle re-signed this offseason and will return as the team's No. 1 receiving threat. Beyond Baldwin, Wilson is surrounded by arguably the best group of pass-catchers in his short career. Second-year phenom Tyler Lockett has the speed to get behind any defense in the league. Jermaine Kearse is a solid third option, and Paul Richardson, a second-round draft pick in 2014 is slated to return following a lost 2015 campaign due to injury.
All that said, it makes sense that coach Pete Carroll and co. are in the business of letting Wilson fire at will as he comes into his own as an NFL quarterback. Wilson recorded a career-high 483 pass attempts last season -- nearly 100 more attempts than he recorded as a rookie in 2012 (393). By no means are 483 attempts close to the most in the NFL (Philip Rivers led the way with 661), but Wilson's attempts have increased incrementally every season, a positive sign for more growth in 2016.
The Seahawks also added a pass-catching option out of the backfield during the draft in Notre Dame product C.J. Prosise. A converted slot receiver, Prosise will add versatility and unpredictability to Seattle's backfield. The way Carroll has been talking him up, it sounds like Seattle plans to use their rookie in some interesting ways, providing Wilson with yet another tool with which he can dissect opposing defenses.
There may not be a more efficient quarterback in the NFL than Wilson. For his asking price in fantasy drafts and the development of the weaponry surrounding him, the Seattle signal-caller presents a must-own situation as an elite player who is continually undervalued.
The veteran surrounded by youth and speed
Eli Manning, New York Giants:
In his age 34 campaign, Eli Manning put up career-best numbers in touchdowns (35), touchdown to interception ratio (35:14, or 2.5 TDs per INT) and passer rating (93.6). He also recorded the second-most passing yards of his career with 4,436, and for the second straight year, Manning registered 14 interceptions after leading the NFL with 27 in 2013. For context, while that number is an improvement upon his pick total from 2013, its still only four away from the most interceptions thrown last year (18, Blake Bortles) so there is still room to Manning to improve in that aspect.
Manning did put up a few single-digit fantasy point outings last year (two of which came against Dallas), so consistency was an issue. Still, Manning did well considering the weapons he had to work with. Obviously an elite wide receiver like Odell Beckham Jr. giving defenders fits in the secondary helps matters, but Beckham can't do it all, every week. So the Giants went out and bolstered their receiving corps with second-round pick Sterling Shepard, a guy that Marcas Grant has pegged as a late-round draft value among wide receivers. In this early stage of the offseason, the rookie already projects as New York's No. 2 receiver opposite Beckham. He's an upgrade over Rueben Randle, Dwayne Harris, and whoever else the Giants rolled out at receiver last year.
As Manning and his teammates became more comfortable and confident in their second year in McAdoo's scheme, we saw major improvements. He upped his completion percentage, passing yards per game, touchdown to interception ratio and passer rating compared to the seasons prior to McAdoo taking over.
New York's league-worst defensive play last year did drive some garbage time production on the offensive side, so we could see some regression this year, depending on game flow. But with McAdoo now serving as head coach and offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan (former quarterbacks and wide receivers coach) at the helm, expect to see the same kind of improvement as Manning enters his third year in the scheme. The fact that he's being drafted as the QB11 in fantasy presents an opportunity to capitalize on a veteran signal-caller who is surrounded by youth, speed, and is plugged into a pass-happy offense.
The bounce-back nobody saw coming
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions:
For the first time in his career, Matthew Stafford will not have Calvin Johnson available to catch his passes. Yet if the price is right, fantasy owners should still consider drafting Stafford as a low-end QB1.
This is fine. Everything is fine.
The Lions cannot replace Megatron, and they surely haven't attempted to. Instead, they added Marvin Jones in free agency who is technically the team's defacto No. 1 receiver. Slot-specialist Golden Tate is returning along with former first-round pick Eric Ebron at tight end and pass-catching running back Theo Riddick. Of course, none of these names provide the every-down threat that Megatron did, nor do they create short-yardage mismatches in the red zone the way only Johnson could. Still, Stafford is confident that he, and his offense, can adapt. The plan is to spread the ball around more than he has in the past. It was no secret to opposing defenses that when Johnson was on the field, he was Stafford's primary target. Now, the Lions will try to keep opposing defenses guessing.
That's the plan, at least.
But what does it mean for Stafford's fantasy value? Most of the Lions' skill position players were a total bust during the first half of last season. But once Detroit's offense started turning things around after Jim Bob Cooter took over, most fantasy fans had given up on players like Stafford, Ameer Abdullah, Tate and Ebron. And that's right when the team started blowing up box scores.
Stafford finished the year with four weeks as fantasy's QB6 or better in the Lions' final eight games. He threw 19 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in that span (compared to 13 TDs to 11 INTs in the first eight games). Even the Lions' league-worst run game saw an uptick. Abdullah's yards per carry average improved from 3.3 to 4.7 as Cooter switched from a zone-blocking scheme to a power-run scheme on the offensive line and employed shorter, quicker-hitting routes for his wideouts which led to quicker releases from Stafford. By the end of the season, when nobody was watching, Stafford and the rest of his team had improved tremendously in virtually all aspects of the offense.
Because of his incredibly horrific start to the 2015 season and the entire fantasy community giving up on him, Stafford's draft stock has dropped him to the QB17. He's another virtually free draft pick who could provide top-10 upside, even without his future Hall of Fame wideout.
The young QB on the cusp of greatness
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders:
Derek Carr played worlds better in his second season than he did in his first. The outlook for his third season is even brighter.
In his two NFL seasons he has accumulated 53 touchdown passes-second only to Dan Marino (68) in NFL history. He improved in just about every category that is important to a quarterback, but the one that matters the most for fantasy football his is touchdown to interception ratio. As a rookie, Carr went 21-12. Last year he went 32-13. That's a huge step forward, and while some of it has to do with the talent the Raiders have surrounded their franchise quarterback with (Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree), much of it has to do with Carr's raw talent.
The guy has thrown some of the prettiest passes you'll see, both of the incredibly accurate drop-in-the-bucket variety and the straight up laser types. Beyond Carr's duo of leading wideouts, he managed to spread the ball around to the rest of his pass-catchers with 54 percent of his completions going to seven different players. That is a sign of a young and intelligent quarterback making his reads and getting the ball to the open man whenever he can.
Additionally, the Raiders now have a size-speed threat over the middle that they lacked last year. As a rookie, tight end Clive Walford overtook Mychal Rivera last season as the team's No. 1 TE and projects to wreak havoc on opposing defenses in his second season. Combine that with the fact that Oakland bolstered its offensive line with the acquisition of top tier lineman Kelechi Osemele at left guard to provide Carr with even more time to make great throws and you're looking at a formula for both real-life and fantasy success.
Carr is on the cusp of a top-10 fantasy season and is only going to get better with experience as his offense grows around him. Carr's situation is ideal for those looking for a bargain in dynasty or keeper formats and fantasy owners would be remiss to overlook him in redraft formats as well.
The second-year sleeper with ALL of the weapons
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
As a rookie, Jameis Winston finished as fantasy's QB13, one spot ahead of Derek Carr. Two players who finished ahead of him in points last year, Blake Bortles and Kirk Cousins, carry question marks as to whether thay can repeat in 2016. That gives Winston the potential to slide into the top 10 by the end of 2016 if he can tone down his mistakes -- he tied for third in interceptions in the NFL (15) -- and turn up his passing touchdown rate.
Still, Winston's 28 combined passing and rushing scores last year ranked him third most in NFL history by a rookie signal-caller, and he's in good company with Cam Newton (35) and Russell Wilson (30). His six rushing touchdowns obviously boosted his fantasy value. Winston is a bigger bodied quarterback at 6-foot-4, 235 pounds coming out of college, so he has the mass to punch one in on a QB-dive at the goal line if need be. But he's definitely not as athletic as, say, Newton. Winston lumbered around awkwardly on his rush attempts, so we're not considering him a "running" quarterback.
In terms of the weapons Winston has at his disposal; Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Doug Martin and Charles Sims present an intimidating matchup for any opposing defense. It's evident that Winston has only scratched the surface as far as what he is capable of as a fantasy quarterback. As Alex Gelhar noted in his breakdown of Winston, Tampa Bay plans to give the Florida State product more responsibility at the line in his second season, and that should lead to even more big-play opportunities. His No. 1 threat, Evans, admittedly wasn't 100 percent focused last year which came to light in his league-leading drop rate. If Evans can bounce back and become a reliable red-zone threat, Winston's outlook is bright. The Bucs offense is trending upward in its second season in Dirk Koetter's scheme, and Winston is driving that ship. Fantasy owners need to climb aboard.
The QB who will save the planet, and your fantasy team
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills:
Last year Tyrod Taylor was, as Matt Harmon put it, a cheat code in fantasy football.
Taylor became a popular DFS value play, especially in the weeks he could be stacked with a healthy Sammy Watkins. In fact, in the 10 games that Buffalo's "Big 3" offensive weapons (Taylor, Watkins, LeSean McCoy) played in together last season, the team averaged 26.5 points per game on offense -- fourth in the NFL last season behind only the Panthers, Cardinals and Patriots.
Taylor's deep ball accuracy combined with his ability to gain yardage on the ground equated to one of the best waiver wire additions in fantasy, and an investment in the former Ravens' backup paid dividends both early on and late in the season when he regained form following a few missed games with an MCL sprain.
Taylor unloaded a dozen 20-plus air yard touchdown passes last season -- tied for the most in the NFL with Russell Wilson. He also averaged more rushing yards per game (40.6) than any other signal caller -- yes, even Newton (39.8) -- and threw a mere six interceptions (three of which came in a single game) on his 380 pass attempts. He slung 20 total passing touchdowns and added four rushing scores for good measure. When Taylor was on, he was basically a lock for nearly 20 fantasy points in a given week (he averaged 18.9 FPPG) which is pretty incredible considering that the Bills ran the ball more than any other team.
When you add up Taylor's dual-threat ability with his passing efficiency and potential to be even better this year, his QB19 ADP right now is absurd. If you have faith in the rewards that your fantasy squad will reap with Tygod at the helm, you can basically get your QB1 for free in the last round of a 12-team standard draft.
The perennially undervalued veteran
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers:
The Chargers were one of the worst teams in football last year, bu Philip Rivers still managed to finish as fantasy's QB12 when all was said and done. He had a wild five-week run where he scored 26.22, 20.60, 28.12, 25.44 and 24.04 fantasy points in consecutive weeks. But against a few tough matchups he struggled to put up double-digits facing great defenses like the Vikings, Broncos and Chiefs.
San Diego's defense and run game were both so awful last year that Rivers finished the season with 661 pass attempts -- more than any other quarterback in 2015 and sixth-most in any season in NFL history. To take it a step further, at age 34, Rivers set career highs in completions (437), attempts (661), and passing yards (4,792) juxtaposed against a career low in wins (four). He managed to rack up those numbers with a MASH unit of pass-catchers too. By Week 16 when San Diego played Oakland on Christmas Eve, Rivers' top two receivers were running back Danny Woodhead and wideout Dontrelle Inman (a former CFL player).
Looking ahead to this season, Rivers gets a healthy Keenan Allen back as his top target. The team added deep threat Travis Benjamin in free agency to open things up downfield and Stevie Johnson will return as the team's slot specialist. Veteran tight end Antonio Gates will be back too, and he may be old but he is still a lethal threat in the red zone. So if San Diego's offensive line can stay healthy this year and they can balance out the offense a bit in terms of the run game, Rivers should be able to remain a weekly starter in fantasy leagues. Also in Rivers' favor is the return of Ken Whisenhunt as the team's offensive coordinator. In Whisenhunt's last season as the Chargers OC in 2013, San Diego boasted one of the best offenses in the league. Hopefully his return will balance the Chargers offense and lead to more consistency on all fronts.
But seriously, what did Philip Rivers ever do to you to garner so much rejection? He's been through a lot, okay? Just draft him and never look back. There is no doubt that he will lead you to fantasy glory.
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Matt Franciscovich is an associate fantasy editor for NFL.com. Follow him on Twitter @MattFranchise.
