So you're about to have your fantasy draft. Or you're thinking about doing a fantasy draft. If you already had your draft, sorry 'bout your luck. You shoulda hit me up sooner to do this. Not that I would have ... but at least you would've asked. And that would have been nice. Sorry, where was I?
Right ... drafts. Anyway, when you're prepping for your upcoming leagues, there are probably more than a few players that you're considering adding to your board. I'm here to tell you that you might be doing it wrong. That's okay, no judgment. We've all been there. Allow me to offer some constructive criticism. Last week, I wrote about five undervalued players. This week, I'm serving up a few players that you're probably too high on. They might not kill your chances of winning a league but they might not help as much as you'd like. I'm just here to help.
Let's get started.
ADPs taken from Fantasy Football Calculator.
Derrius Guice (RB33; ADP 7.04)
Chalk up 2018 as a year of "what might have been" for Derrius Guice. Washington spent a second-round pick on the former LSU star with apparent designs on making him a featured part of their offense. Then in the team's first preseason game, Guice suffered a knee injury that turned out to be the dreaded ACL tear and before we'd even had a chance to get a real look at him ... he was gone.
Just over a week later, Washington signed Adrian Peterson. The longtime veteran defied most expectations and posted the eighth 1,000-yard season of his career. That came while trying to run behind an offensive line that ranked as one of the worst run-blocking units in the league and in an offense that took a nosedive after Alex Smith suffered a gruesome injury and the team was forced to run through a litany of uninspiring quarterbacks.
Nonetheless, you had to sit back and wonder -- if the well-worn Peterson at age 33 could hit the 1,000-yard mark, what could Guice have done? Maybe that optimism is driving Guice's current ADP. Fantasy managers all hope for the best and it's certainly true that with the dearth of quality running backs available after the fourth round. So it makes sense that maybe folks reach a little bit in those middle rounds.
Stop that.
This isn't about whether Guice can rebound after last season's knee injury. If you need proof that it's possible, look no further than his teammate Peterson. Twice he's returned from ACL tears, including famously getting back on the field in less than a calendar year to rush for more than 2,000 yards in 2012. This ain't that.
First off, 2012 Adrian Peterson was unlike anything most of us have ever seen before. Plus, he was running behind a better offensive line than what currently exists in Washington. That last part is the bigger issue. Unless Guice has some superhuman powers that we were previously unaware of, it might be tough to find holes behind a group that was both bad and injury-stricken in 2018 and projects to be as bad or worse in 2019. You can't lose someone like Trent Williams and think you're going to get better.
This is also a team that lived around the league average in run-pass ratios last season, regardless of the situation. The problem is that Washington spent a lot of time trailing in ballgames which naturally reduced the number of times they ran the football. This isn't breaking news, but Washington is probably going to spend a lot of time trailing in games again this year. What makes that even more disconcerting is that the team re-signed Peterson to a two-year extension back in March. At best, he's going to platoon with Guice. At worst, he remains the lead running back as the team works the youngster into the rotation.
Through it all, Guice has a similar ADP to Miles Sanders and is going ahead of Darrell Henderson and Jordan Howard -- two players who are tied to committees in much better offenses. It's certainly possible that great things are still in the works for Guice. It's just hard to see them happening this season.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for NFL.com and a man who is going to eventually get around to clearing out his email inbox. Right after he empties his voicemail box. Be patient. Send him your tales of avoiding communication or fantasy questions on Twitter @MarcasG.
