Several rounds into your fantasy draft and you're stuck trying to decide between two different players. The ADP for one of them says he should probably come off the board a few rounds later but you're afraid that if you wait, your guy might not be on the board anymore. So you reach ... and hope things work out for the best.
Of course, there's a thin line between a good reach and a bad reach. The former will have you looking like a genius. The latter will probably land you out of the playoffs. No pressure, though. You know I've got your back. That's why I've put together this list of players that you should feel comfortable snagging a couple of rounds earlier than their current ADP. Read me now. Thank me later.
All ADP numbers are from NFL.com
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (Round 2, Average pick 13): I'm not sure why, but I feel like fantasy drafters aren't quite sold on the idea of A.J. Green being worthy of a first round pick. Were it not for an injury that forced him to miss essentially the final seven games of the season, Green would have easily continued his string of 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career. Equally as impressive has been his track record of six or more touchdowns in five of his six seasons -- another mark that likely would have been extended had he not been hurt. He belongs in the same breath with Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones. Plus with Ezekiel Elliott currently outside the first round in most drafts, Green should easily slide into the top 10 picks.
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (Round 3, Average pick 28): Maybe part of the reason Angry Doug is so angry is that we keep undervaluing him in fantasy drafts. He's been a top 10 fantasy receiver in each of the past two years and remains the top target in an offense that has seen an increase in passing play percentage over the past few seasons. Baldwin's targets have also increased in each of the past four years, hitting a career-high 125 in 2016. That number might recommend a ceiling -- but that ain't a bad ceiling. While we debate over how the rest of Seattle's pass-catchers will split the target share, there's no doubt where Baldwin stands in the pecking order.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings (Round 6, Average pick 58): We're all hurting for running backs, which makes Cook's sixth round price tag a little eye-opening. Combine that with the fact that few people seem to have confidence in Latavius Murray (Round 13 ADP) and you wonder why more people wouldn't reach for the rookie. Nearly all the reports from Vikings camp have Cook as the leader for the starting job and his multi-dimensional skill set could render Murray irrelevant in short order. The Minnesota offense has the look of an emerging unit and a potential workhorse back should get more respect in drafts.
Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay Packers (Round 7, Average pick 67): Perhaps it was all the Jamaal Williams talk that has scared people away from Montgomery in drafts. But if you're going to tell me that Montgomery has significantly less draft value than Joe Mixon (Round 4) or C.J. Anderson (Round 5), my response is going to be one word: Nah. A talented player working as the lead back in a high-powered offense is better than the 23rd running back off the board. We can achieve more, folks.
Martellus Bennett, TE, Green Bay Packers (Round 10, Average pick 94): Tight end is certainly a position you can afford to wait on in your fantasy drafts. But c'mon people, waiting this long to saddle up with the Black Unicorn is just crazy. We've seen what an athletic pass-catching tight end can do in a Packers offense (Jared Cook's late-season flourish, anyone?). Plus his blocking skills will keep him on the field for all three downs. Bennett was the TE7 last season while having to share snaps with Rob Gronkowski for a portion of the year. You're telling me he can't be better as the primary tight end in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense? I repeat ... c'mon people.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers (Round 10, Average pick 96): Everyone points to Benjamin's underwhelming 2016 season as a reason to downgrade him on their draft boards. Of course, "underwhelming" still meant 941 yards and seven touchdowns. That was better than Julian Edelman and Golden Tate -- two players who are currently going well ahead of Benjamin in drafts. The addition of Christian McCaffrey is an exciting one for Carolina's aerial prospects but the rookie isn't suddenly going to become Cam Newton's top target. Nor is McCaffrey going to suddenly turn into a 6-foot-5 red zone monster. If Benjamin can be a top 20 receiver in a "down" year, shouldn't he drafted like one?
Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington Redskins (Round 10, Average pick 97): The fantasy world has apparently weighed in heavily on the side of Terrelle Pryor, whose fifth round ADP is steadily rising. This seems to ignore the fact that more than 200 targets walked out the door with the departures of Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. Those aren't all going Pryor's direction. Crowder in the 10th also ignores the production of a player who was third on the team in receiving yards, led Washington in touchdowns and is entering just his third season. There's no reason why Crowder can't approach 125 targets this season in a still-pass-happy offense. With that type of volume, even grabbing him in the eighth round is still a bargain.
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Round 11, Average pick 109): I know you all have been bombarded with "wait on a quarterback" for years now. And that's still a worthwhile idea. But Winston's name has been projected as a breakout all summer long. He's been on the fringe of the top 10 quarterbacks for the past couple of seasons and with some upgrades to his offense appears ready to make the leap. You can still wait on a quaterback and land Jameis. Just try waiting until the ninth round instead of the 11th.
Rob Kelley, RB, Washington Redskins (Round 12, Average pick 110): Looks like we were wrong in anointing Samaje Perine as the next Washington running back to target. Camp reports surrounding the rookie have been ... well, they're not good. That puts Kelley back in the catbird seat as the starting running back. Over the past few years, this team hasn't really committed to one running back. But if Kelley is the starter and on track to see the majority of the backfield touches, then he deserves to come off the board well before the 12th round.
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers (Round 12, Average pick 116): The presence of Christian McCaffrey in Carolina is apparently scuttling everyone else's fantasy value. First it's Kelvin Benjamin pushed to double-digit rounds. Now it's Jonathan Stewart sinking to the bottom of draft boards. Did I miss the memo stating Stewart was no longer the team's starting running back? Or the part where he wouldn't still approach 200 carries in a season? McCaffrey's a really nice addition in Carolina. He's not the whole offense. Don't forget about the other pieces, folks.
*Marcas Grant is a fantasy editor for NFL.com and a man who thought about spending the day curled up in his lounge chair brushing his pet bunny rabbit and binge watching "Dragon Ball". Tweet him your best lazy day ideas @MarcasG. If you read all of that, congrats. Follow him on Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat (marcasg9). *
