In a click-driven world, ratings are currency catalysts. Search the words “overrated” and “underrated” … and block off a few hours on your calendar. You’re gonna be busy.
We all have opinions on things ranging from politics to sports to food. Some of these opinions are more impactful to your daily life than others. Like the choices so many of us will make this fall that will have far-reaching consequences in our lives.
I’m talking about the choice of NFL players you select for your fantasy football teams. What did you think I meant?
Avoiding overrated players in favor of underrated ones is the name of the game. Finding value is how to not only build a winning squad, but also to show off that you are a supreme ball-knower. So let’s go on a journey to figure out the players going too soon and the ones going too late.
There’s certainly no way the internet could argue against these at all, right?
NOTE: Average draft position was pulled from Fantasy Football Calculator.
OVERRATED
Project draft position: RB4, Round 1
Last season, fantasy managers were excited at the prospect of Gibbs in an ascending Lions offense. Those same managers were dismayed that Gibbs didn't immediately get a large share of Detroit's backfield work. David Montgomery was the fly in the ointment for the first few weeks of the season as the rookie eased into his role. Eventually, Gibbs saw a share of touches that eager drafters could feel comfortable with, though much of that came because of an injury to Montgomery.
No sane person would doubt Gibbs' talent and upside within the offense. Alas, Montgomery persists. The veteran isn't the sexiest option, but he's steady. He's had more than 1,000 scrimmage yards and at least six touchdowns every season of his career. And he's not going away in the Detroit attack. That's not the level of competition you want for a player who's going as the fourth running back off the board.
Project draft position: WR11, Round 2
Some players are much better in real football than they are in fantasy football. Samuel is one of those guys. He's been a jack-of-all-trades for Kyle Shanahan's offense. There was also his mind-bottling 2021 season, when he was the NFL's best hybrid offensive weapon. Those two things have combined to give fantasy enthusiasts an overinflated view of Samuel's potential.
The truth is that while Samuel's weekly ceiling is high, the weekly floor can also be very low. He presents scary volatility for a player being drafted as a low-end WR1. Even scarier for a player who is coming off the board ahead of his much steadier teammate, Brandon Aiyuk. Maybe this ADP inflation is tied to the trade rumors that swirled around Aiyuk all summer. If we see Samuel's draft price come down, I'm willing to buy back in. At this price, however, I'm out.
Project draft position: RB13, Round 3
Achane is a similar case to Jahmyr Gibbs. While the Dolphins back didn't have as much immediate hype, there was a belief that he could earn a sizable role in an otherwise confusing backfield. What few expected was just how well his elite speed would translate to the next level. He was essentially a big play waiting to happen each time he touched the ball, averaging nearly 8 yards per carry last year. Those kinds of numbers are usually only found in Madden or Derrick Henry's high school stats page.
And therein lies the rub. That level of efficiency is impossible to believe in for another season. The only way to bridge the gap would be for Achane to see a significant workload increase. That seems unlikely, with Raheem Mostert still holding court in South Florida. The most believable outcome is that those two split most of the work (to say nothing of the role rookie Jaylen Wright could occupy). I’m also willing to predict that Miami won't have a 70-point game this season that includes four Achane touchdowns. Call it a hunch. Achane's ADP has fallen from the start of draft season, but I'd still rather take the shot on Mostert much later in drafts.
Project draft position: WR34, Round 6
Rice's ascension to fantasy relevance last season was borne mostly from necessity. The Chiefs needed a wide receiver -- any wide receiver -- to step up and help Travis Kelce. Rice was the man to answer the call. Last season, the rookie made his bones as a YAC maven. He finished fifth among receivers in yards after the catch. That's good! But when you stack him against the top 20 YAC receivers, he's dead last in completed air yards and is the only one with less than 500 completed air yards. That's ... concerning
The issue is that most of Rice's touches last year were manufactured. He averaged 5 air yards per target in an offense that resigned itself to playing close to the line of scrimmage. This year's Chiefs don't plan to be last year's Chiefs. New additions to Patrick Mahomes' supporting cast (Marquise Brown, Xavier Worthy) suggest the two-time MVP QB will go back to attacking downfield. Add in that Kelce again is expected to be the team's top target, and that Rice's offseason troubles could lead to some type of league discipline, and it's hard to see the second-year wideout having a similar impact this year. It's eye-raising enough that he's going ahead of both Brown and Worthy. It's even more head-scratching that he's in the same neighborhood as Jayden Reed and Terry McLaurin.
Project draft position: TE14, Round 11
On the one hand, I get it. While the fantasy tight end position has gained some much-needed depth in recent seasons, there's still a lack of consistency outside of the top tier of players. Most of the tight ends drafted outside of the top eight could finish just about anywhere, from the bottom of the top 10 to outside the top 20. Hockenson is a known commodity who offers TE1 upside when healthy.
It's the last part that makes Hockenson's ADP hard for me to swallow. His outstanding 2023 ended prematurely because of an ACL tear suffered in Week 16. Having it happen so late in the year will undoubtedly impact his availability for the start of this season. As for just when he'll return, we don't know. This is before we get into a quarterback situation that has scared drafters away from Vikings skill-position players in general. If the prospect of Sam Darnold under center is making us hesitant about a healthy Jordan Addison, how can we have any level of confidence in a recovering T.J. Hockenson? This is one dart throw I'd prefer to keep in my pocket.
UNDERRATED
Project draft position: WR 23, Round 4
Cooper had a respectable, if not remarkable, WR20 finish in 2023. If you're looking for silver linings, it's that Cooper finished as a top 20 receiver despite Cleveland's revolving door at QB last season. Five different players started a game under center for the Browns. Everyone remembers Deshaun Watson's uneven beginning to the year and Joe Flacco's torrid finish. What a lot of us gloss over, though, were the games started by Dorian Thompson-Robinson, PJ Walker, and Jeff Driskel.
Through it all, Cooper maintained a 21 percent target share -- even if the percentage of catchable targets fluctuated from week to week. The volume was there ... and it should continue to be. Until we see otherwise, it's hard to envision Elijah Moore or Jerry Jeudy as true threats to Cooper's target share. And while David Njoku was a stud at the end of the season, we've yet to see him produce with Watson at quarterback. WR20 feels like Cooper's absolute floor this year, with a finish inside the top 12 being a real possibility.
Project draft position: WR31, Round 6
Pickens had a couple of notable runs during the 2023 season. The first came early in the year after Diontae Johnson went down with an injury. During that four-game period, Pickens averaged more than eight targets and 16.6 fantasy points per game. The next stretch came during the final month of the 2023 season. He was the WR7 over the final three weeks while seeing a bump in targets per route run. That was with Johnson on the field.
With Johnson shipped off to Carolina this offseason, Pickens no longer has serious target competition. The quarterback situation does give some reason for pause, though. There's no certainty that Russell Wilson (who's dealing with a calf issue) keeps the job all year, with Justin Fields waiting in the wings. But either should provide more consistent play under center than what the Steelers previously had with Kenny Pickett. Pickens' improved situation should be enough to move him several spots up draft boards, ahead of other receivers in more crowded offenses.
Project draft position: TE7, Round 8
Yeah, I said it. By now, you've planted a flag about how you feel about Pitts. Maybe you jumped on the bandwagon early on, only to get burned a couple of years in a row. Now, you've vowed to stay away. Maybe you look at the major changes Atlanta has made this offseason and have decided to buy back in. Or maybe you’re part of the crew that never wavered. There are dozens of us. Dozens!
We finally have a perfect storm of upside for Pitts. Improved quarterback play, an aggressive-but-not-wacky play-caller and a clean bill of health. Has that really been too much to ask? Let's be honest: If it doesn't happen this year, then it might never happen. Another underwhelming campaign from the former first-rounder, and I'll refund what it cost to read this article.
Project draft position: TE6, Round 6
As bullish as I am on Pitts in 2024, I'm even more optimistic about McBride. From Week 8 until the end of last season, he was the third-best tight end in fantasy. It was enough to overshadow Marquise Brown and make Zach Ertz expendable.
McBride is everything we want in a fantasy tight end. Young, attached to a good quarterback and facing minimal target competition. Although this year's edition of the Cardinals will feature Marvin Harrison Jr. heavily, McBride, at worst, will be the second option in an offense that will need to throw the ball much more than it did last season. While McBride could certainly pay off an earlier ADP, maybe it's best to forgo breaking the bank for Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce and take the discount on a tight end with similar upside.
Project draft position: RB35, Round 8
First of all, it's weird to write about Ekeler as a Commander. After seven seasons with the Chargers, the versatile back now moves to the nation's capital for a fresh start. So far, fantasy drafters don't seem impressed. Ekeler is 29 years old, coming off an injury-riddled season and transitioning to a new offense. Not exactly a combination that inspires confidence.
On the flip side, Ekeler still won't hit the dreaded "30-year-old" age cliff until next May. He's (hopefully) fully healthy after some nagging ankle issues last year. And he's reuniting with his former head coach, Anthony Lynn, who now oversees Washington's running backs. Even with a running quarterback in Jayden Daniels, Ekeler should be featured heavily in the passing game. It will be interesting to see how the goal-line work is split with Brian Robinson, but Ekeler has repeatedly shown a nose for the end zone. His days as an elite fantasy option might be passed, but it's hard to think he can't muster at least a top-25 finish this year.