Welcome to HYPE TRAIN season! We’ve come out of the darkness of the offseason and entered the light of the preseason. It means we get football-like substance, mostly in the form of beat writer camp reports and social media highlights. They’re like sips of water to desert wanderers.
But not all news items are created the same. Or at least they shouldn’t be reacted to the same way. Some pieces of information are more valuable than others. That’s where I come in. For the next couple of weeks, I’ll be combing through the stories you might not have time for. I’ll try to help you sift through what’s vital to your fantasy fortunes and what’s probably best ignored.
Here we go! Are you buying a ticket on the hype train? Or are we dealing with some smoke screens? Let’s dive in.
Hype train
I am on record as saying I don’t like Gibbs at his current first-round ADP. That doesn’t mean he can’t (or won’t) again be an explosive player in an explosive offense. It’s always worrisome when you hear about a skill-position player dealing with a soft tissue injury, though. While Campbell isn’t a doctor (nor has he played one on TV), it’s encouraging to hear that the hamstring injury isn’t expected to be a lingering issue.
Last season, the Lions limited Gibbs' usage early in the year. But he and David Montgomery were a solid 1-2 punch by the midpoint. Over the final nine games of the regular season, Gibbs averaged about 10 more snaps per game than his backfield mate. Nonetheless, the opportunities (rush attempts + targets) were nearly even in each contest. Not much has changed in the Detroit offense, so Gibbs has the potential to finish again as a low-end RB1.
Yet more good news about an offensive skill-position player managing an injury. Any early concerns about Nabers suffering a major issue with his ankle were muted when it was reported to be a low ankle sprain. Nabers, like Dan Campbell, isn’t a doctor. But he knows his body and is supremely confident that he’ll be ready for Big Blue’s season opener against the Minnesota Vikings.
The idea of a serious injury would have added to the worries surrounding the No. 6 overall pick, fantasy-wise. Daniel Jones had a career year in 2022 -- with barely over 3,200 passing yards. His best receiver that season was Darius Slayton with 724 receiving yards. You’ll understand if fantasy managers are worried about Nabers’ ceiling. The rookie’s potential target share in a wide receiver room without much serious competition is reassuring, however. Knowing that the arrow is pointing up heading to Week 1 should prevent his ADP from sliding too much.
Beyond the obvious downer of J.J. McCarthy's season-ending injury, Week 1 of the preseason was a good one for this year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks. That included Nix, who went 15-of-21 for 125 yards and a touchdown while leading four scoring drives against the Colts. Last week’s performance came in relief of starter Jarrett Stidham. Seems like it was enough for this year’s 12th overall pick to get a look with the first team in Week 2 of the preseason.
Nix winning the starting job is the outcome fantasy managers should be rooting for. We know what Stidham and Zach Wilson are at this point in their respective careers. Nix has a chance to unlock the potential of Sean Payton’s offense. It’s unlikely that the rookie is going to be selected in many, if any, redraft leagues. But it would make us far more optimistic about Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin and the rest of Denver’s pass catchers.
Smoke screen
It sounds cool, doesn’t it? Hearing your rookie running back is swagging out at practice in the best way possible. It seems even cooler after that rookie running back had an eye-opening performance in his first preseason action. There’s a strand of the multiverse where Wright earns a huge role in a high-powered Miami offense to start the season and becomes a fantasy darling. It’s just not the strand we’re currently living in.
As much as we’ve fretted over the idea of the Dolphins rotating three running backs, it hasn’t really been the case in Mike McDaniel’s tenure. In each of the past two seasons, the top two backs in the rotation handled about 80 percent of the backfield touches. With Raheem Mostert coming off a career season and De’Von Achane bursting onto the scene as a big-play specialist, it will take a lot for Wright to force his way into more opportunities, regardless of how swaggy he is.
A lot of players come into training camp boasting that they’re in the best shape of their lives. This apparently ain’t that. Allen has played most of his career around 210 pounds. That number has jumped up a bit, according to reports. It manifested itself as Allen looking slower and not getting any targets in Chicago’s preseason game against Buffalo last week.
This feels like a talking point made for social media and sports radio. Allen has earned more than 100 targets in eight of his 11 NFL seasons. The only times it didn’t happen were when injuries cut his campaigns short. If you want to say you’re worried about Allen because he’s (No. 1) an aging veteran (2) in a new offense (3) with a rookie quarterback and (4) a lot of target competition, fine. I’m not buying that he’s going to take a step back because he got a little bit beefier this offseason.
Likely burst onto the scene during the 2022 preseason. He caught all 12 of his targets for a combined 144 yards and a touchdown. Astute fantasy managers have been chasing that high ever since, with middling results. Likely tends to reappear when Mark Andrews is ailing or out of action. But what if both tight ends could both thrive ... together? It’s a nice thought, but one I’ll need to see for myself before I can believe it. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken expects Likely to have a “great year.” But what he considers great could differ significantly from fantasy managers.
Few offenses have been as run-heavy over the last five years as Baltimore's attack. That held true under Greg Roman and now with Todd Monken at the controls. Dating back to 2019, there were only two seasons in which multiple Ravens reached 80 targets. We already know that Andrews and Zay Flowers will occupy the top couple of rungs on the target ladder. That will make it tough for anyone else to force their way into a sizable opportunity.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for NFL.com and a man who needs to get back to meditating. Send him your mindfulness tips or fantasy football questions on Twitter @MarcasG or TikTok at marcasgrant.