It's no secret that many teams are now crafting their free-agency philosophies around the value of receiving potential compensatory selections in any given year.
So, how do compensatory picks work?
The number of compensatory picks allotted each year (in exchange for departing players) is limited to the number of teams in the league (32), per the collective bargaining agreement. However, compensatory picks are not divided up equally among the teams, and no team can receive more than four compensatory picks (for players leaving) in a single year. To qualify for compensatory picks, teams must end up with more or better qualifying free agents lost than gained in a particular year.
Teams are awarded compensatory draft picks between Rounds 3 and 7 based on a league formula that takes into account a player's average salary per year (APY), snap count and postseason awards. While there is an expected level of compensation for a player based on the amount he has signed for, his playing time (or lack thereof) in the upcoming season could alter the expectation.
In November of 2020, the NFL announced it would award two third-round selections (one in consecutive years) to any team that had a minority coach or executive hired as head coach or general manager by another NFL club (teams that lost employees to a head coach and general manager position would receive three). Those selections come at the back end of the compensatory picks awarded in the third round. The 49ers received their first of three picks in 2023 as a result of having Ran Carthon (Titans GM) and DeMeco Ryans (Texans head coach) hired away this offseason.
The compensatory picks for the 2024 NFL Draft won't be determined by the NFL Management Council's formula until after the 2023 season is over, but in this post, I'll attempt to project who will be receiving compensatory picks next year and the round in which those picks could fall.
Keep in mind: Players need to have been signed as unrestricted free agents before the May 1 deadline and rank high enough among their peers to qualify for the compensatory-pick formula. Players that were released by their previous team are not eligible for the formula, so they're not included in the key additions and losses here.
TEAM PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 5 PICKS
Projected compensatory picks: Two in Round 3; two in Round 5; one in Round 6.
Key free-agent losses: Samson Ebukam (Colts), Jimmy Garoppolo (Raiders), Mike McGlinchey (Broncos), Emmanuel Moseley (Lions), Charles Omenihu (Chiefs), Jimmie Ward (Texans).
Key free-agent additions: Sam Darnold, Javon Hargrave.
Comp-pick analysis: The 49ers will receive the second of three third-rounders awarded for losing DeMeco Ryans (Texans head coach) and Ran Carthon (Titans GM) this offseason. The departure of Garoppolo was canceled out by the signing of Hargrave, but the loss of McGlinchey nets a third-rounder. If you are keeping track of the leaderboard for compensatory picks, the 49ers are the undisputed kings over the last two seasons with seven received in 2023 and five projected for 2024.
TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 4 PICKS
Projected compensatory picks: Two in Round 6; two in Round 7.
Key free-agent losses: Greg Gaines (Buccaneers), Matt Gay (Colts), Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), A'Shawn Robinson (Giants), Nick Scott (Bengals).
Key free-agent additions: None.
Comp-pick analysis: Provided Robinson and Scott play the roles I expect them to with their new teams, the Rams should receive the maximum number of compensatory picks for the third consecutive year.
Projected compensatory picks: One in Round 3; two in Round 5; one in Round 6.
Key free-agent losses: Andre Dillard (Titans), C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Lions), Javon Hargrave (49ers), Miles Sanders (Panthers), Isaac Seumalo (Steelers).
Key free-agent additions: None.
Comp-pick analysis: The Eagles played the compensatory pick game perfectly. They knew they would have a large number of players depart in free agency, and they didn’t add any projected qualifying free agents to the team. Philadelphia should receive the maximum number of picks, including a third-rounder for Hargrave.
TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 3 PICKS
Projected compensatory pick: One in Round 5; two in Round 6.
Key free-agent losses: Allen Lazard (Jets), Dean Lowry (Vikings), Jarran Reed (Seahawks), Robert Tonyan (Bears).
Key free-agent additions: None.
Comp-pick analysis: The Packers are losing four qualifying free agents, but I expect them to receive just three compensatory picks due to the relatively low APY of Tonyan’s reported deal (one-year, $2.65 million). Lazard should net a fifth-rounder while Reed and Lowry could return a sixth-rounder each.
Projected compensatory picks: Two in Round 4; one in Round 6.
Key free-agent losses: Andy Dalton (Panthers), Marcus Davenport (Vikings), Kaden Elliss (Falcons), David Onyemata (Falcons), Shy Tuttle (Panthers).
Key free-agent additions: Khalen Saunders, Nathan Shepherd, Jamaal Williams.
Comp-pick analysis: Some of the signings/departures cancel each other out here, but the Saints are likely to receive three picks, including fourth-rounders for Davenport and Onyemata.
Projected compensatory picks: One in Round 6; two in Round 7.
Key free-agent losses: Dan Feeney (Dolphins), Nate Herbig (Steelers), Sheldon Rankins (Texans), Nathan Shepherd (Saints), Mike White (Dolphins).
Key free-agent additions: Mecole Hardman, Allen Lazard.
Comp-pick analysis: The losses of Rankins and Shepherd should be canceled out in the formula by the additions of Lazard and Hardman. The Jets still had three other departures that should result in a sixth-rounder (Herbig) and two seventh-rounders (Feeney and White). There is a chance that Feeney ultimately does not play enough in 2023 to earn the Jets a comp pick.
TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 2 PICKS
Projected compensatory picks: One in Round 5; one in Round 6.
Key free-agent losses: Jessie Bates (Falcons), Vonn Bell (Panthers), Hayden Hurst (Panthers), Samaje Perine (Broncos).
Key free-agent additions: Orlando Brown, Nick Scott.
Comp-pick analysis: For the first time since 2019, the Bengals should be receiving compensatory picks. Bates’ departure and Brown’s arrival should cancel each other out in the formula, but Cincinnati should receive a fifth- and sixth-rounder for its other losses.
Projected compensatory picks: Two in Round 6.
Key free-agent losses: Connor McGovern (Bills), Dalton Schultz (Texans).
Key free-agent additions: None
Comp-pick analysis: Considering the contracts signed by McGovern and Schultz, a pair of sixth-rounders should be heading to the Cowboys.
Projected compensatory picks: One in Round 3; one in Round 6.
Key free-agent losses: Marvin Jones (Lions), Arden Key (Titans), Chris Manhertz (Broncos), Jawaan Taylor (Chiefs).
Key free-agent additions: None.
Comp-pick analysis: On the surface, losing four qualifying free agents and signing no qualifying free agents looks like it should result in Jacksonville receiving multiple compensatory picks, but not so fast, my friend. The contracts and/or playing time for Manhertz and Jones might not reach the level needed to return compensatory picks. The departures of Taylor and Key will certainly bring in a third- and sixth round-pick.
Projected compensatory picks: Two in Round 5.
Key free-agent losses: Orlando Brown (Bengals), Mecole Hardman (Jets), Khalen Saunders (Saints), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Patriots), Juan Thornhill (Browns), Andrew Wylie (Commanders).
Key free-agent additions: Mike Edwards, Charles Omenihu, Jawaan Taylor, Drue Tranquill.
Comp-pick analysis: The Chiefs are no stranger to the compensatory pick game. This year they were active in the market, with six qualifying losses and four gains likely to result in the addition of two fifth-round picks.
TEAMS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 1 PICK
Projected compensatory picks: One in Round 4.
Key free-agent losses: Zach Allen (Broncos), Byron Murphy (Vikings).
Key free-agent addition: Kyzir White.
Comp-pick analysis: After signing a three-year, $47.5 million deal with Denver, Allen’s departure should provide a fourth-round selection for Arizona. Murphy and White could cancel each other out in the compensatory pick formula.
Projected compensatory pick: One in Round 4.
Key losses: Josh Oliver (Vikings), Ben Powers (Broncos).
Key free-agent addition: Nelson Agholor.
Comp-pick analysis: Oliver and Agholor could cancel each other out in the formula, but Powers’ departure should bring a fourth-round pick.
Projected compensatory picks: One in Round 3.
Key free-agent losses: Tremaine Edmunds (Bears), Devin Singletary (Texans).
Key free-agent additions: Deonte Harty, Connor McGovern.
Comp-pick analysis: Edmunds signed a four-year, $72 million contract with the Bears to take over their starting inside linebacker spot. Buffalo’s lower-tier signings/departures should cancel each other out, but Edmunds’ move projects to provide a third-rounder.
Teams projected to not receive any compensatory picks: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders.
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