With the start of the regular season two weeks away, here are my projections for the offensive skill-position players picked early in the 2024 NFL Draft.
As you will see, I'm not providing forecasts for a pair of first-round quarterbacks: Michael Penix Jr., since starting him as a rookie does not appear to be part of the Falcons’ plans; and J.J. McCarthy, who is out for the season. You'll also notice I dipped a little deeper into the draft for running backs. I didn’t want them to feel left out, even though only one RB was drafted in the first two rounds in April.
Quarterbacks
Drafted: Round 1, No. 1 overall
Best-case scenario: Chicago's offense clicks early in the season under new coordinator Shane Waldron. Williams instantly connects with a stellar group of skill-position players to meet the high bar set for him. The first overall pick makes a run at Andrew Luck’s rookie passing yards record, leading the Monsters of the Midway back to the playoffs.
Worst-case scenario: Williams encounters significant growing pains, forcing too many throws behind a shaky offensive line. The Bears buzz of the summer dies early as the QB turns the ball over at a rate that leads to panic in Chicago.
Projected stats: 3,909 passing yards, 26 TDs, 12 INTs; 367 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 2 overall
Best-case scenario: Daniels looks much like the dynamic playmaker he was during his Heisman Trophy-winning season with LSU. He airs it out in OC Kliff Kingsbury’s attack and makes highlight-reel gains with his legs on a consistent basis, maturing quickly when it comes to knowing when to protect himself from contact.
Worst-case scenario: An overhauled offensive line doesn’t jell and durability concerns about the thinly-framed quarterback surge to the forefront as he takes hit after hit. Daniels struggles to connect deep and on throws outside the numbers, limiting Washington's offense.
Projected stats: 3,495 passing yards, 19 TDs, 11 INTs; 615 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 3 overall
Best-case scenario: Maye proves he’s ready to start earlier than many were anticipating heading into camp. The Patriots are more competitive than your average rebuilding team, and Maye leaves little doubt he was the right choice at No. 3 overall with a very promising rookie year.
Worst-case scenario: The Patriots’ perceived shortcomings on paper translate to the field, and Maye receives a rude welcome to the NFL because of it. A leaky O-line leads to a sped-up clock and bad decision-making by the QB. He’s not able to establish any consistency and doesn’t inspire confidence heading into 2025.
Projected stats: 2,873 passing yards, 15 TDs, 13 INTs; 280 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 12 overall
Best-case scenario: The fawning over the fit between Nix and Sean Payton’s offense proves to be well-placed. The rookie’s experience (61 college starts) shows, as he plays with a lot of confidence. Nix is efficient and shows the accuracy that was his calling card at Oregon.
Worst-case scenario: The Broncos’ offensive line struggles and it takes a toll on Nix. Pressure consistently knocks him out of rhythm, and the trademark accuracy does not shine through.
Projected stats: 3,358 passing yards, 20 TDs, 10 INTs; 241 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs.
RUNNING BACKS
Drafted: Round 2, No. 46 overall
Best-case scenario: Fully rehabbed from the ACL tear he suffered last November, Brooks hits the ground running (through defenses) in late September. Carolina’s offseason investments in the offensive line pay immediate dividends, and a Brooks-led run game ultimately becomes the backbone of a much-improved offense.
Worst-case scenario: Brooks' return from injury takes longer than the team currently hopes and he needs to be worked in slowly once he’s able to take the field. Brooks doesn’t show the same explosiveness he displayed at Texas, and the Panthers’ offense continues to be among the league’s worst.
Projected stats: 141 carries for 625 yards, 5 TDs; 25 receptions for 185 yards, 2 TDs.
Drafted: Round 3, No. 66 overall
Best-case scenario: Benson entrenches himself as the enticing backup to James Conner early on and begins pushing for a larger workload by midseason. He makes a bigger impact as a pass catcher than expected, too.
Worst-case scenario: He’s not decisive enough as a runner and is unable to challenge Conner for snaps. The burst is good -- the man ran a 4.39 40-yard dash, after all -- but not overwhelming enough for him to break off big gains on a consistent basis at the NFL level.
Projected stats: 147 carries for 621 yards, 4 TDs; 20 receptions for 140 yards, 1 TD.
Drafted: Round 3, No. 83 overall
Best-case scenario: The Rams find the sturdy, reliable backup to Kyren Williams they envisioned when selecting Corum. He grinds out tough yardage and proves more than capable of filling in as the starter if injuries sideline Williams again.
Worst-case scenario: Corum doesn’t show the gear necessary to break off longer runs and his limitations confine him to a bit role in Sean McVay's offense.
Projected stats: 139 carries for 595 yards, 5 TDs; 21 receptions for 154 yards, 1 TD.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Drafted: Round 1, No. 4 overall
Best-case scenario: Chemistry between MHJ and Kyler Murray is on display right away, instilling confidence that the franchise has a QB-WR connection it can build around for years to come. Arizona’s new WR1 makes plays on all three levels of the field and leads a resurgence in the desert.
Worst-case scenario: Defenses build their game plans around locking down Harrison in coverage and the Cardinals can’t find a way to counter. The big plays are few and far between, and drops are an issue.
Projected stats: 81 receptions for 1,102 receiving yards, 8 TDs.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 6 overall
Best-case scenario: Giants fans’ prayers for a true WR1 are answered. Nabers uses his rare combination of athleticism, toughness and speed to uplift an offense crying out for a bona fide playmaker. Daniel Jones has a career year, thanks in large part to Nabers’ arrival.
Worst-case scenario: The offense never truly gets going and New York’s worst fears about the quarterback position come to fruition, with Nabers’ skills going to waste in a punchless attack that can’t get him the ball like it should.
Projected stats: 77 receptions for 1,092 receiving yards, 6 TDs.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 9 overall
Best-case scenario: With DJ Moore and Keenan Allen drawing attention from defenses, Odunze is left in highly favorable coverage matchups and makes the most of the opportunities using his elite ball skills. Caleb Williams knowns he can trust his fellow rookie at receiver.
Worst-case scenario: Shane Waldron’s offense underachieves as Williams turns the ball over at an alarming rate. Odunze has some very quiet games with the rookie QB experiencing growing pains and Moore, Allen and Cole Kmet eating up a large chunk of the target share.
Projected stats: 63 receptions for 888 receiving yards, 6 TDs.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 23 overall
Best-case scenario: Jacksonville gets back to playing like it did in the first half of last season, when it was a top-10 scoring offense. Trevor Lawrence establishes a strong rapport with the explosive Thomas, who led the FBS in receiving touchdowns (17) in his final year at LSU.
Worst-case scenario: The Jaguars don't bounce back. Doug Pederson’s offense fails to play to its potential and Thomas’ chances to stand out are limited with Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne needing to be fed.
Projected stats: 64 receptions for 903 receiving yards, 7 TDs.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 28 overall
Best-case scenario: Worthy’s blazing timed speed carries over to the NFL gridiron. Patrick Mahomes finally has the deep threat he’s missed since Tyreek Hill’s departure and Kansas City’s offense regains that extra dose of adrenaline.
Worst-case scenario: The former Longhorn’s play strength isn’t where it needs to be yet; too many defenders are able to knock him off his route with physical play. The drops that plagued Worthy at times in college become a problem for him again, too.
Projected stats: 53 receptions for 793 receiving yards, 5 TDs.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 31 overall
Best-case scenario: Pearsall recovers from the shoulder injury that has kept him out this preseason and earns his way into the 49ers’ deep receiver rotation. He uses his craftiness as a route runner to earn the trust of Brock Purdy.
Worst-case scenario: The time missed due to injury sets Pearsall back and it takes him a chunk of the regular season to get up to speed. He has a hard time carving out a consistent role with multiple elite talents in line for touches ahead of him.
Projected stats: 33 receptions for 424 receiving yards, 3 TDs.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 32 overall
Best-case scenario: First-year head coach Dave Canales jump-starts Carolina’s offense, with Legette playing a leading role at receiver. His physicality on 50/50 balls is just what the doctor ordered for Bryce Young, who looks the rookie’s way more and more as the season progresses.
Worst-case scenario: The Panthers’ offense doesn’t make a significant leap. Young leans on veterans Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen, while Legette requires more time to acclimate to the pros.
Projected stats: 50 catches for 687 receiving yards, 4 TDs.
Drafted: Round 2, No. 33 overall
Best-case scenario: Josh Allen needs a go-to guy, and Coleman proves up to the challenge. He thrives on jump balls, especially in the red zone, and plays a large role in replacing the production that departed with Stefon Diggs.
Worst-case scenario: The big plays for Coleman are hard to come by. He doesn’t show the speed to separate from coverage downfield and drops continue to be a bugaboo for him.
Projected stats: 60 catches for 785 receiving yards, 6 TDs.
Drafted: Round 2, No. 34 overall
Best-case scenario: An impressive display of route-running acumen quickly ingratiates the second-rounder to Justin Herbert. McConkey sees a high volume of targets in a receiving corps lacking an established star and proves himself a reliable YAC source.
Worst-case scenario: A consistent diet of NFL press coverage wears down the undersized newbie. He’s not quite physical enough to thrive against pro defenders in Year 1.
Projected stats: 68 receptions for 817 receiving yards, 6 TDs.
Drafted: Round 2, No. 37 overall
Best-case scenario: Polk earns a starting job early in the season and forms an instant connection with the new face of the franchise, Drake Maye. The offense is more punchy than expected, thanks in part to the rookie wideout making plays on contested catches downfield.
Worst-case scenario: It’s a rough first season for the new-look Patriots. The offense sputters, and Polk doesn’t show the play speed to break through for the chunk yardage New England badly needs.
Projected stats: 55 receptions for 743 receiving yards, 3 TDs.
Drafted: Round 2, No. 52 overall
Best-case scenario: The Mitchell buzz that’s percolated in recent weeks carries into the regular season. Anthony Richardson leans on his new receiver’s size and wide catch radius, making him a favorite target in the red zone.
Worst-case scenario: The tools are there, but they don’t all come together for Mitchell in 2024. It becomes clear he will need further seasoning to become a consistent route runner and pass catcher.
Projected stats: 57 receptions for 753 receiving yards, 4 TDs.
TIGHT ENDS
Drafted: Round 1, No. 13 overall
Best-case scenario: Bowers and Gardner Minshew are on the same page from Day 1. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound tight end becomes option 1b to Davante Adams’ 1a, and Bowers is an instant YAC monster for Vegas.
Worst-case scenario: Injuries, which have slowed Bowers since last season, continue to bother him. His lack of size is exposed by tough coverage, and second-year TE Michael Mayer eats into his playing time.
Projected stats: 71 receptions for 762 receiving yards, 6 TDs.
Drafted: Round 2, No. 53 overall
Best-case scenario: Sinnott bursts onto the scene, showing the big-play ability he's flashed in the preseason. Washington starts out splitting the snaps between him and veteran Zach Ertz, but Sinnott proves he’s the team’s clear TE1 before long.
Worst-case scenario: He’s not ready to be a full-time player and ends up the distant TE2 behind Ertz in a Commanders offense that’s a bit disjointed in Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era.
Projected stats: 50 receptions for 515 receiving yards, 3 TDs.