- WHERE: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Deportes, NFL+
All is not well in Texas.
Both Houston and Dallas find themselves in varying degrees of free fall heading into Week 11, although one of the clubs potentially has a much softer landing in store considering its early-season successes and current divisional positioning.
The Texans have dropped three of their past four contests thanks to a struggling offense, but even at the current low point of their season they're still in a good spot assuming they can cease the plummeting now. Thanks to starting off the campaign 5-1, the defending AFC South champions are in pole position to repeat, two games up on the 4-6 Colts and even farther ahead of the two-win Titans and Jaguars.
The Cowboys' situation appears far more perilous. Dallas has lost four consecutive games, and with Dak Prescott officially out for the year, now lacks a firm identity on both sides of the ball. Thanks to Philadelphia's win over the Washington Commanders on Thursday night, Mike McCarthy's bunch stands five wins shy of the NFC East-leading Eagles with eight games left to play.
The winner of the intrastate affair will foster hope the victory marks a slump-busting start to a new, positive streak. The loser, however, will be stuck in the doldrums for at least another week.
Here are four things to watch for when the Texans visit the Cowboys on Monday night on ESPN and NFL+:
1) C.J. Stroud searches for form with help of Nico Collins. Stroud's encore to a stellar first NFL season has fallen flat of late, as the 23-year-old's 72.8 passer rating since Week 7 is the worst of any signal-caller with 100-plus attempts in that span. He’s struggled for a multitude of reasons, the most concerning for the rest of the year being exposure to a constant barrage of pressure. Stroud has seen pressure on 41.5% of his dropbacks, the highest of any QB this season, and there likely won’t be a reprieve against the Cowboys considering their top-five 39.1% pressure percentage. One of the other major factors in his struggles luckily won’t be in play anymore, though, thanks to Collins returning for the first time since a Week 5 hamstring injury. Stroud has been pedestrian or worse without his top wide receiver, completing 57.9% of his passes with a 77.1 passer rating, 5:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 6.4 passing yards per attempt in 237 snaps sans Collins. In 151 snaps played with Collins this season, Stroud has a 70.5 completion percentage, seven TDs, two INTs, a 107.0 passer rating and is averaging two more yards per throw. Plugging the star wideout back into the formula doesn't guarantee success -- especially considering it's changed with the loss of Stefon Diggs to a torn ACL since Collins has been gone -- but getting the league leader in receiving yards per game (113.4) back certainly can't hurt.
2) How long is Cooper Rush's leash? Back in 2022, Rush filled in for an injured Dak Prescott for five starts, going 4-1 with 956 passing yards, five touchdowns, three interceptions, a 81.2 passer rating and a 58.0 completion percentage. Those performances, which weren't sterling but were competent, came with considerably more firepower surrounding him -- but he nonetheless showed he can guide the ship. He again looked capable relieving Prescott in the fourth quarter of an eventual 27-21 Week 9 loss to the Atlanta Falcons (115 yards, 1 TD). However, Rush came undone last week in his first start of the 2024 campaign. He managed just six points against the Eagles on 10 drives, eight of which lasted four plays or less. He lost two fumbles, and his 45 passing yards were the fewest by a QB with 20-plus attempts since 2015. Trey Lance took over in the fourth quarter and fared little better going 4 of 6 with a pick, but he's the unknown element that might require further investigating with the season quickly slipping away. After all, the Cowboys traded a fourth-round pick to acquire his services two offseasons ago. It's entirely possible Rush comes out and turns down the volume for such a move -- his worst game and only loss of the 2022 campaign also came against Philly -- but at this point Dallas could stand to look at all options.
3) Houston defense set to wreak havoc. It's not going to be easy to poke holes in the Texans D. Danielle Hunter's 5.5 sacks in 2024, still respectably tied for 20th among defenders, belies his sheer dominance. His 62 pressures are the most in the league by 10, which is also the largest lead at this point of the season in seven years. He's been helped mightily by blockers needing to split their attention between him and reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr., but Hunter still logged a game-breaking eight pressures in Week 10 with the second-year pass rusher sidelined. Dallas must be weary of him, again slated to play without his partner in crime, at all times. When Cooper Rush does get off passes, it'll be against a secondary with a perfect storm brewing. Dallas wide receivers have managed the second-fewest average yards of separation (3.0) at the time of a pass' arrival through 10 weeks. Houston has allowed 3.1 yards of separation, third-fewest in the league. There's going to be minimal room to work with, and the Texans have a slew of stars -- especially emerging ones -- capable of taking advantage. Rookies Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter have taken to the league quickly and are top two on the team in INTs with four and three, respectively. Last week against the Lions, Lassiter nabbed a pair while Bullock brought in another, suggesting they're heating up just in time for the battle for Texas.
4) Cowboys' own house of horrors. From Sept. 18, 2022 to Jan. 13, 2024, Dallas did not lose a game at home. Then in last season's wild-card round, the team saw its 16-game home winning streak shockingly snapped with a thorough 48-32 defeat to the Green Bay Packers at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys have done nothing but lose there since. They are now 0-4 this season on their turf, where the defense's 38.3 points per game allowed is on pace to be the most allowed by any team at home in NFL history. On offense, the Cowboys have failed to score 10 or more points at home in consecutive games for the first time in seven years. With five of their final eight games taking place in Arlington, they've got to find a fix. Will it be CeeDee Lamb breaking out as he did down the stretch in 2023 to reignite Dallas' passing attack, or could Rico Dowdle put his stamp on a game after Mike McCarthy recently acknowledged he is the Cowboys' featured running back? Houston has shown vulnerabilities on offense, so perhaps Micah Parsons and Co. can exploit those in ways they've proven unable to as the 31st-ranked scoring defense thus far. Parsons had two sacks in his Week 10 return from an ankle injury that robbed him of four games, and he'll need to be just as feisty once again to turn the tide for a struggling unit. He and big-time players like him must lead the way.