NFL win-total projections, AFC: Ravens top Steelers in North; Broncos make playoffs

NFL franchises use contextualized data to create competitive advantages. In order to realize an edge, teams need to employ the right data in the right way at the right time. This means distilling, interpreting and applying only the most influential data in a framework that accounts for their personnel, their opponents and their evolving game situations. My goal is to be YOUR analytics department. I want to work for you by providing a peek into which numbers flag in my models as the most impactful ... or the most misunderstood.

With 10 weeks (and the trade deadline) in the books, we're taking a midseason look at win projections for all 32 teams for the 2024 season, focusing on the AFC below. In addition, I've included five takeaways that help to highlight the biggest factors influencing the projections.

As always, let me know if your eye test is picking up on something interesting, or if there's a stat/trend you'd like me to take a deeper look at. You can hit me up @CFrelund. As with any great analytics department, the more collaborative this is, the more value we can create.

NOTE: The odds presented below are provided by DraftKings. They are current as of 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 13 unless otherwise noted.

Five takeaways from AFC projections

1) The only remaining game where I do not have the Chiefs favored to win is this Sunday’s matchup against the Bills, and they still win that game in 45.6 percent of simulations. I should note their Week 18 game against the Broncos in Denver could swing to a projected loss if they decide to rest starters. The Chiefs earn the extremely valuable first-round bye in 67 percent of pre-Week 11 simulations. Should they upset the Bills in Buffalo, that number moves up to 78 percent. If they fall to the Bills, they still earn the No. 1 seed in 63 percent of simulations.

2) Lamar Jackson may be the favorite to win MVP honors, but no QB has a higher win-share value this season than Josh Allen. Between the run-first strategy OC Joe Brady has implemented, the offensive line being one of the best in the league and Allen’s unique blend of arm strength/smart rushing, the Bills have been able to not just withstand but thrive. They hold a commanding lead in the AFC East even though they’ve been without top receivers due to injury, undergone big changes on defense -- especially in the spine of the defense with new starting safeties -- and lost Pro Bowl LB Matt Milano in camp (he could be returning soon). I feel like I need to give a little love to Greg Rousseau, who has really stepped up with 36 pressures (20 of them were quick pressures). The Bills had to deal with cap constraints and lean on their homegrown guys. They’ve delivered.

3) The AFC North race between the Steelers and Ravens is neck and neck and they still have two games to play against each other. This week the Steelers host and on Dec. 21 the Ravens take their turn. The Baltimore pass defense and offensive line project to have the most impact in determining how the rest of the season plays out, even though Lamar Jackson is the front-runner to win MVP (for a third time) AND Derrick Henry is the favorite for Offensive Player of the Year. In my model the Ravens are not currently favored in their Week 17 matchup with the Texans in Houston. We still have a lot of football to play before we get to that game, so this could flip by then, but it forecasts to be a pivotal matchup for their playoff positioning. Well, apart from the two games against the Steelers, that is.

4) Don’t let the Texans having the lowest forecasted win total of the projected AFC division winners fool you. They are in an interesting spot when it comes to making a playoff run. With Nico Collins and Will Anderson Jr. working their way back from injuries, the Texans could get healthy in time to improve ahead of the postseason. Houston’s defensive front has been at or right near the top in many of the pressure and disruption metrics. If the Texans can scheme around their interior offensive line being the pain point for the team (C.J. Stroud has faced the most pressures in the league) then the Texans could be dangerous. This scheming becomes easier when Collins is back in action.

5) Remember back before the season started in September, when Vegas set the over/under for Broncos wins at 5.5? My model projected Denver to exceed that total. Goodness knows my model doesn’t get everything right, and I take my Ls and grow from them, but it’s pretty cool to see Denver is only one win away from exceeding 5.5 entering Week 11. What’s even cooler is the underlying metrics that drove the preseason rankings have panned out well. My model ranked their defense in the top five in forecasted win share at the start of the season. They have ranked no worse than No. 3 in that category at any point this season. On offense, the Sean Payton pairing with Bo Nix projected to create steady gains using higher probability passes along with strategic uses of Nix’s rushing capabilities to then layer on more complex passing plays. It seems like that’s been the formula utilized by the Broncos, and it has paid off. Nix leads all rookie QBs in touchdowns through Week 10.