NFL win-total projections, NFC: Lions earn top seed; Eagles hold off Commanders in East

NFL franchises use contextualized data to create competitive advantages. In order to realize an edge, teams need to employ the right data in the right way at the right time. This means distilling, interpreting and applying only the most influential data in a framework that accounts for their personnel, their opponents and their evolving game situations. My goal is to be YOUR analytics department. I want to work for you by providing a peek into which numbers flag in my models as the most impactful ... or the most misunderstood.

With 10 weeks (and the trade deadline) in the books, we're taking a midseason look at win projections for all 32 teams for the 2024 season, focusing on the NFC below. In addition, I've included five takeaways that help to highlight the biggest factors influencing the projections.

As always, let me know if your eye test is picking up on something interesting, or if there's a stat/trend you'd like me to take a deeper look at. You can hit me up @CFrelund. As with any great analytics department, the more collaborative this is, the more value we can create.

NOTE: The odds presented below are provided by DraftKings. They are current as of 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 13 unless otherwise noted.

Five takeaways from NFC projections

1) The Lions have just two games left on their schedule in which, as of now, their win projection falls under 51 percent: vs. the Bills in Week 15 (50.1 percent) and at the 49ers in Week 17 (48.9 percent). They are powered by several standout units that rank highly in the NFL, per computer vision: the offensive line (when Taylor Decker, who is currently dealing with a shoulder injury, is on the field) ranks No. 1; the run game ranks No. 2; the play-calling scheme in the passing game ranks No. 1. Detroit's defense ranks first in third-down conversion rate allowed (31.4 percent). Trade acquisition Za'Darius Smith doesn't need to be elite; he just needs to provide enough consistent, reliable pressure to boost a defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league in pressure rate (32.3 percent), per Next Gen Stats. This would enable the Lions to play truly complementary football, enhancing their chances at postseason success. Heading into Week 11, Detroit earns the coveted solo bye in the NFC in 57 percent of simulations.

2) In Week 10, the Eagles supplanted the Commanders atop the NFC East for the first time since Week 1. If they want to gain a stronger hold on the division, they can start by beating Washington on Thursday at home. The Week 16 rematch (on the road) looms as another key date on Philly's schedule, of course -- but it's far from the only one that can impact the playoff picture, in both the NFC and AFC. Games at Baltimore (in Week 13) and vs. Pittsburgh (in Week 15) can reshape the AFC North race, while a road showdown with the Rams in Week 12 stands as a potential turning point in Los Angeles' effort to upend things in the NFC West and sneak into the postseason. One fun fact to note: In both the median and ceiling scenarios painted by my model, rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean end up performing like the best CB duo in the league. So watch them carefully; the better Mitchell and DeJean play, the likelier it is that Philly will reach its best possible outcome.

3) Yes, in the order we have here, the current leaders of the NFC West end up missing the playoffs. But the truth is, the race in that division is wide open. The return to health of running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Deebo Samuel, along with continued excellent play from Brock Purdy, helps put San Francisco slightly on top of Arizona in the median projection. However, you will notice that the Cardinals' projected ceiling (12.8 wins) is higher than the Niners' (12.2). Arizona is definitely in line to outperform its preseason projected win total (6.9), which was the lowest in the division. Four of the Cardinals' seven remaining games are divisional matchups, including two contests against the Seahawks -- and they have Kyler Murray, whose win share ranks fifth among all QBs through 10 weeks of the season. Arizona makes the playoffs in 49.9 percent of simulations, which means its postseason fate basically comes down to a coin flip.

4) Despite being seeded ninth in this projection, the Bucs are by no means out of the playoff race. They do probably have to win the NFC South to get there, since the division has the lowest odds of sending two teams to the postseason by a significant margin. And they can't just erase the Falcons' two-game lead; Tampa has to finish with a better record, because Atlanta swept the season series. That said, the Bucs are favored in all but one of their seven remaining games (against the Chargers in Los Angeles in Week 15). If they can beat the Bolts, they'd have a chance to win out, which is as much as they can do to help themselves now. For reference, the most difficult remaining dates for the 6-4 Falcons are as follows: at the Broncos this week, vs. the Chargers in Week 13, at the Vikings in Week 14 and at the Commanders in Week 17.

5) Ahead of the season, Vegas put the Seahawks win total over/under at 7.5 games, and it’s 7.5 once again entering Week 11. I projected 8.5 wins for Seattle in September. I say this all the time, but it’s worth repeating here: I am a conservative modeler, so even a tenth of a win above the over/under is a significant discrepancy for me. One full win higher is a huge difference. I could blame injuries for the Seahawks’ dwindling chances of proving my preseason forecast correct as they’ve lost five of their last six games. Or I could look to the current odds. They have a 39 percent chance of eclipsing 7.5 wins this season. That’s a low number. However, as I’ve said before, the NFC West is very interesting. Should the Seahawks upset the 49ers this week, they surpass 7.5 wins in 45 percent of season simulations. Let’s see if this one happens.