1. Chris Johnson will lead all running backs in fantasy points. The more I think about it, the more I believe it. I can chalk up his horrendous season to bad preparation during the lockout. I could see it coming back for him a little bit down the stretch last year, which I admit I didn't think would happen. He's already been bragging on Twitter about what he's going to do this year. I'm not going to doubt him. Look, they gave him the ball on nearly 70 percent of all their running plays last year when he stunk. He'll get it just as much this year. I think he has one more incredibly great (2,000-yard type) season left in him before he starts declining, and this is the year to do it.
2. Ryan Mathews will be a top five fantasy running back. It should have been this way two years ago, but Mathews got hurt to start his career. So the door opened for Mike Tolbert to wedge his way into the Chargers offensive plans. I remember Norv Turner saying they were going to get Mathews the ball three-hundred times his rookie season. I took him early. It didn't work out. This is the year. No one is in his way anymore with Tolbert in Carolina. Without Vincent Jackson (or a replacement for him), San Diego will rely more on Mathews than they have before. And he'll be a fantasy superstar.
3. Calvin Johnson will be just fine to draft, "Madden" curse and all. Oh, it's not that I don't think Megatron is going to beat the Curse. He'll be the latest victim -- but he won't fall off the face of the earth. Some of the "Madden" curse have had some liberties taken with them. A player who had a down year statistically is said to have been cursed alongside those who have gotten hurt. That's what's going to happen to Johnson. Look, is he going to total nearly 1,700 yards and 16 touchdowns again? Of course not. His numbers could drop to around 1,300 and 10-12 TD. Which technically could fall under the 'curse' umbrella. Don't worry, Johnson is still your No. 1 WR off the board.
4. Ten quarterbacks will throw for at least 30 touchdowns this season. There were five last year (Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady and Tony Romo). All five will once again pass that mark. Joining them will also be Peyton and Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler. Peyton and Cutler are the two most iffy ones of the bunch, but if Peyton's still playing in Week 16 he'll get there -- he's got something to prove. And Cutler has always had the potential, now he's got the horses to throw to do it. Nab him as your No. 2 QB as he could have a Matthew Stafford 2011-type fantasy breakout season.
5. The steal of everyone's draft will be BenJarvus Green-Ellis. When he got the chance in New England, the "Law Firm" produced. The lone time he had more than 200 carries in a season he went over the 1,000-yard mark. But New England really doesn't like to run the ball. Cincinnati, however, loves to run it. They couldn't wait to let Cedric Benson go even though they gave it to him all the time. He has a nose for the end zone with 24 touchdowns in the last two seasons. In 2012, I expect him to be near 1,500 yards rushing and 15 TDs. Owners will take him late to fill out their RB position because they'll think, "He's never been great, and now he's a Bengal and away from that Patriots offense." But someone's going to get lucky in the fifth or sixth round of their draft and wind up with the best No. 2 RB of any team in their league.