Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. Today's installment covers:
But first, one overlooked team that could make a Super Bowl push and one hyped powerhouse that could fall flat ...
The 2024 NFL season kicked off in style on Thursday night, with the Kansas City Chiefs holding off the Baltimore Ravens in a thrilling 27-20 win. K.C. is aiming to become the first franchise ever to win three straight Super Bowls. Who could stop Patrick Mahomes and Co. from achieving this feat?
Well, with the remaining 30 teams poised to kick off their respective campaigns, we're about to get a better sense of the NFL hierarchy in 2024. Which teams are contenders? Pretenders?
After taking a few days to survey the league landscape, here is one team that deserves more love ... and another that could be overhyped.
SLEEPER: Cleveland Browns
This could be the year the Dawg Pound is rewarded for its loyal fandom. These Cleveland Browns are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, and I think this coaching staff could be positioned to get the most out of everyone in 2024.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski comes from an offensive background, and over his first three seasons in Cleveland, the Browns excelled at pounding the rock, finishing third, fourth and sixth in rushing yards. Last year, though, the offense lost star running back Nick Chubb to a season-ending knee surgery in Week 2, and the Browns' ground attack took a step back, finishing 12th. With Chubb starting this season on the reserve/physically unable to perform list, Cleveland's remaining backs (Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong Jr. and D'Onta Foreman) will need to pick up the slack until the four-time Pro Bowler is back in the fold. This, of course, places even more pressure on another former Pro Bowler who enters the 2024 season in a searing spotlight.
Cleveland's campaign really hinges on the performance of Deshaun Watson, who is still trying to knock off the rust after missing the entire 2021 season amid allegations of sexual misconduct, serving an 11-game suspension in 2022 for violating the NFL's personal-conduct policy and then managing just six starts in an injury-riddled 2023. Over his first two seasons with the Browns, Watson hasn't come anywhere close to meeting the expectations accompanying his fully guaranteed, $230 million deal.
But I think the quarterback, who is about to turn 29 years old, could rediscover his magic under new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. The former NFL QB helped Cam Newton make a splash as a young player, experience that could help him rebuild Watson into the gamebreaker who initially took the league by storm with the Houston Texans. While the skeptics will point to Dorsey's failed stint in Buffalo, the offensive architect helped the team rank second in points scored and total offense in his lone full season coordinating the Bills' unit (2022).
Before Watson's career flew off the tracks over the past few years, he was one of the league's brightest young stars. He finished with a passer rating of 103.0 or better in three of his four seasons with Houston, guiding the Texans to back-to-back AFC South titles in 2018 and '19. In 2020, he led the NFL with 4,823 passing yards, posting a 33:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 112.4 passer rating in the process. His work in Cleveland -- 79.1 passer rating in 2022, 84.3 in '23 -- obviously pales in comparison. But it's possible Watson's sharp decline can be attributed to rust and a poor scheme fit. While Stefanski will continue to call offensive plays, Dorsey has been installing a revamped scheme that should take better advantage of Watson's skills as a dynamic playmaker, simultaneously maximizing the performances of potent pass catchers like Amari Cooper, David Njoku and offseason trade acquisition Jerry Jeudy. If the offensive line can just get healthy, the Browns could see their QB1 thrive under Dorsey's tutelage.
And if the offense produces a few fireworks, the defense should certainly be able to hold up its end of the bargain. That unit is already championship-caliber, as Myles Garrett and Co. flourished under the direction of Jim Schwartz in 2023. The blitz-happy defensive coordinator directed a group that led the NFL in several categories, including total defense (270.2 yards per game), passing defense (164.7 ypg), third-down percentage (29.1%) and first downs allowed (253). This earned Schwartz Assistant Coach of the Year honors, while Garrett was named Defensive Player of the Year. Cleveland's suffocating defense befuddles opponents by utilizing an assortment of five-man pressures and sticky man-to-man coverage -- and it returns nearly all of its key pieces in 2024, boasting top-notch players at all three levels. The secondary, in particular, boasts a wealth of talent.
If Dorsey can help Watson get back on track, this is one of the best overall rosters in the NFL. Long story short: The Browns could emerge as top-tier contenders in the loaded AFC.
PAPER TIGER: San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco might return a roster loaded with enough talent to contend for a title, but an offseason full of drama underscored the challenge facing 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. As pivotal players seek cash rewards for contributing to the Super Bowl LVIII appearance, the desire to check off items on personal agendas could prompt some guys to cast aside the team-first attitude needed to win at the highest levels.
Though San Francisco eventually took care of WR Brandon Aiyuk and LT Trent Williams, Shanahan must keep a close eye on the kind of envy that could split the locker room. With Brock Purdy eligible for an extension after this season, everyone's already wondering what this team could look like in 2025 and beyond, assuming the quarterback ultimately cashes in on a megadeal. Perhaps Shanahan can keep the chemistry and camaraderie together while vying for a title with the championship window potentially closing on this current version of the Niners. He can offer up a few motivational speeches that resonate with a team looking to avenge a pair of Super Bowl losses to the Chiefs over the past five seasons. The sting of those defeats might be enough to keep San Francisco humble and hungry in 2024, but the team must alleviate some on-field concerns in order to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Shanahan has to tweak the passing game to handle the man-to-man coverage that seemingly disrupted the rhythm of San Francisco's offense in this past February's Super Bowl. With first-round pick Ricky Pearsall sidelined for at least the first four weeks of the season after suffering a gunshot wound to the chest during an attempted robbery, the 49ers' receiving corps features more catch-and-run specialists than route runners. Though Shanahan's aerial attack has thrived in the past with various playmakers turning short passes into long gains, the success some opponents have enjoyed against San Francisco's perimeter players will spawn copycat game plans that test the evasiveness of guys like Deebo Samuel Sr. and Jauan Jennings at the line of scrimmage. If Shanahan and Co. cannot devise tactics and strategies to defeat bump-and-run coverage, the Niners' passing game will continue to struggle against talented defensive backfields employing man-heavy coverage schemes.
Meanwhile, Williams' return is obviously an enormous boost to the offensive line, but the 36-year-old All-Pro can't single-handedly control the trenches. San Francisco's patchwork O-line remains suspect. While Williams is an absolute beast on the left side, the team lacks a blue-chip player at center (Jake Brendel) and right tackle (Colton McKivitz). With Dominick Puni also set to debut as a rookie starter at right guard, the play of San Francisco's offensive front could make or break the 49ers' season.
Defensively, the 49ers are pretty loaded at every level, but Nick Bosa needs an edge-rushing playmate with speed, strength and explosion to match his energy on the opposite side. If Leonard Floyd or a less-established player like Yetur Gross-Matos can step up and deliver 10-plus sacks, the Niners can lessen the burden on Bosa to carry the pass rush by himself.
With cloudy minds from the Super Bowl hangover and a couple of on-field issues overshadowing the talent and potential of a team that has appeared in four of the last five NFC Championship Games, the 49ers could fall out of the chase like the 2020 squad that fell apart following San Francisco's Super Bowl LIV loss.
Five players you shouldn't count out
It doesn't take long to go from hero to zero in the NFL. Executives, scouts and coaches can be quick to dismiss underperforming players when things go awry. But savvy team builders understand that a new environment or scheme change could help a guy rediscover his dominant ways.
At the outset of a new season, I'd like to highlight a handful of veterans who could rebound from recent struggles in a major way this year. Here are five bounce-back candidates to keep an eye on.
As critical as I've been of Wilson in the past, I think it's premature to dismiss the nine-time Pro Bowler's chances of success in 2024. The 13th-year pro posted respectable numbers in his final season with the Denver Broncos (66.4% completion rate, 28:6 TD-to-INT ratio), exhibiting some of the clutch playmaking skills (he had four game-winning drives, one shy of his career high) that made the former Seahawk a legend in the Pacific Northwest. He also displayed the kind of ball security, sound judgment and managerial skills that coaches covet in veteran QB1s.
Steelers fans might want to see their quarterback push the ball downfield to the likes of George Pickens, but offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and head coach Mike Tomlin surely understand the value of an experienced playmaker like Wilson, who knows how to play winning football in a league where games are routinely decided by eight points or fewer. In 2019, Smith resurrected Ryan Tannehill's career as his coordinator in Tennessee, utilizing a conservative game plan that featured a heavy dose of the ground attack complemented by the creative use of play-action passing. It's not hard to see him providing Wilson with a similar boost.
The one glaring caveat, of course, is Wilson's health; the 35-year-old was listed on Friday's injury report as questionable for Sunday's showdown against the Falcons, thanks to a calf injury he's been dealing with since early in training camp. If Wilson misses time, that will obviously complicate his path to a bounce-back year, especially if Justin Fields manages to impress in his place. But if Wilson is able to operate at full capacity, the veteran could surprise his skeptics with a solid season that keeps the Steelers in the playoff hunt.
Do not let the bumpy end to Diggs' tenure in Buffalo -- or his pedestrian second-half numbers last season (48.9 receiving yards over his final 13 games, including playoffs) -- overshadow the overall stellar production he put up as the Bills' No. 1 option on the perimeter. With four straight 1,000-yard seasons in Western New York, including 1,183 receiving yards in 2023, the veteran helped elevate Josh Allen with his exceptional consistency and reliability as a route-runner and playmaker.
In Houston, Diggs could help C.J. Stroud cement his status as a top-five passer, serving as a hybrid WR1/WR2 in an offense that features a dynamic cast of weapons around the emerging superstar quarterback. As opponents focus on neutralizing Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz, the 30-year-old veteran could quickly reclaim "go-to guy" status, with the potential to post a 100-catch/1,000-yards season as a primary option in an electric passing game. He might even re-emerge as a top-20 receiver by season's end.
Once viewed as the gold standard at cornerback, the seventh-year pro has seemingly been dropped from the discussion about lockdown defenders, rarely mentioned by pundits as a candidate to be the NFL's CB1. Though he did earn a second career Pro Bowl nod in 2022, Alexander missed 22 combined games in 2021 and '23 due to injury; his absences have perhaps overshadowed an impressive career résumé on the island.
With new Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley installing a system that plays to the veteran's strengths as a man coverage specialist, the 5-foot-10,196-pounder is poised to return to prominence as one of the league's defensive game-changers on the perimeter. Whether he's spending more time in bump-and-run coverage or potentially shadowing the opponent's WR1, moving to a more aggressive system could position him to remind the football world of his superb talents and playmaking ability as a No. 1 corner.
Over his first four pro seasons, all spent with the Ravens, injuries prevented the 25-year-old Dobbins from claiming a spot as one of the top running backs in the league. Now, though, a reunion with former Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman in Los Angeles could spark a career resurgence that coincides with the Chargers' re-emergence as playoff contenders. Dobbins is in the perfect spot to make his mark as a nimble sledgehammer between the tackles.
Yes, he is slated to split time with Gus Edwards in the backfield. Even so, Dobbins' downhill running skills and big-play potential could power him past the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. His robust yards-per-carry figure (5.8 yards, the highest by any running back since 2020 with at least 200 rushing attempts in that span) suggests he can serve as a home-run hitter in that Chargers backfield. If he can avoid the injury bug, Dobbins could become the workhorse this team leans on during a postseason push.
The pairing of new head coach Mike Macdonald and Nwosu could help the Seahawks' defense return to the ranks of the elite. After all, the clever defensive architect helped Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy enjoy career seasons in Baltimore while serving as their coordinator, and it's conceivable that Macdonald could perform a similar magic trick in Seattle with this seventh-year pro.
Nwosu notched 9.5 sacks and 26 QB hits in 2022 with the 'Hawks, both career highs, but a torn pec ended his season in Week 7 last year, limiting his production to a pair of sacks and six QB hits. We'll have to wait a bit longer to see him back on the field, thanks to a preseason knee injury that will cost him time, including Sunday's opener against the Broncos. But when Nwosu does return to health, a creative plan that produces countless one-on-one opportunities on the edges could allow him to pile up sacks.