Is the rookie wall a myth or a reality?
Jayden Daniels isn’t quite sure, but the Washington Commanders’ dynamic first-year quarterback admittedly is getting used to a much longer and arduous season.
“I mean, I don't know,” Daniels said Wednesday, via team transcript, when asked if he’d hit the rookie wall. “Obviously, it's longer, so it's different. It's just stuff getting used to, like usually right now in college, the season's about [to] end. Our season, it's just starting, somewhere like the second half of the season. So, I mean, that's different, but I don't really know the definition of a rookie wall. I just know that NFL season is longer [than] college.”
Those who subscribe to the rookie wall believe in the theory that NFL first-year players experience a drop-off in play during their initial seasons. It comes after a certain period of time due to getting acclimated to the mental and physical rigors of playing pro ball for the first time. After all, it’s a longer season and there’s fatigue and increased pressure to deal with during a calendar year that often saw the end of their final college season, then pro days and the NFL Scouting Combine, the draft process, rookie camp, minicamp, training camp and the longest season of their lives.
“I mean, just learn on the fly,” Daniels said when asked if he’d done anything to prepare for a longer season, “learn from people that been in my position before.”
At this time last year, Daniels was hitting the final days of a Heisman Trophy-winning season with LSU, having defeated Texas A&M on Nov. 25, 2023, with only the ReliaQuest Bowl on New Year’s Day left for him to play.
Right now, Daniels and the Commanders have at least five more games remaining with the hopes of more in the postseason. Those aspirations have taken a hit with three straight losses marked by what’s been Daniels’ worst stretch statistically in his rookie campaign.
Having led the Commanders to a surprising 7-2 start, Daniels threw for nine touchdowns and just two interceptions with a 71.5 completion percentage and a 106.7 passer rating during that stretch. In contrast, across Washington’s current three-game skid, Daniels has thrown only three TDs with an equal amount of a INTs, a 61.5 completion percentage and a 77.7 rating.
Along with Daniels’ downturn, scrutiny has fallen on his offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.
Kingsbury, whether as a head coach or OC, has a history of troublesome times in November or later, having gone 18-46 since 2013 in college and the NFL combined, per NFL Research. Kingsbury’s offenses have scored roughly four points fewer and produced 40 yards less per game from November-January in comparison to September-October.
This season, the Commanders were tied for first in the NFL with 31.1 points per game through the first seven weeks. Since Week 8, though, their average has dropped to 23.2 points a contest, per NFL Research.
Jayden Daniels -- 2024 Season (via NFL Research)
Regardless of the waning numbers and most notably the losing streak, Daniels isn’t pressing nor feeling a sense of urgency bearing down.
“I mean, you just go out there and play football,” he said. “Execute and you let the cards fall where they fall. It's just how we prepare and go out there, have fun and play loose and we'll live with the outcomes.”
Despite the perceived hard times caused by those outcomes -- which have seen three consecutive losses by eight points or less after two straight one-possession wins -- Daniels finds himself part of a united Washington front.
“I think it's just a special group of guys that like to be around each other and have each other's backs,” he said. “So, win, lose or draw, we're always here for each other and we're not pointing fingers, we're not turning on each other. I mean, the locker room is pretty strong to me.”
The losing skid hasn’t removed the Commanders from the playoff picture, either, as they currently reside in the NFC’s seventh spot.
Facing a 3-8 Tennessee Titans squad on Sunday, Daniels and his 7-5 Commanders will aim to snap their losing streak and break through the rookie wall -- imaginary or not.