Last offseason, Derek Carr predicted teammate Khalil Mackwould earn 30 sacks.
The Oakland Raiders pass rusher won Defensive Player of the Year in 2016 as one of the premier quarterback disrupters in the NFL, but earned just 11 sacks in the process.
Speaking to Mad Dog Sports Radio with Adam Schein on Wednesday, Carr doubled down on last year's sack prediction for Mack.
"I'm still sticking with my 30 number. Because we know this is going to blow up, I'm gonna say 30," Carr said laughing when asked how many sacks Mack could earn. "That's if he doesn't get held ... if they start calling the holdings, if they start calling them like they should -- I'm saying 30."
After Carr's prediction last year Mack's sack total shrank from 15 to 11. Sacks are a fluky stat, so we'd expect the DPOY to increase his total from last year -- unless Carr is jinxing him with all these 30-sack predictions (quit it, Derek!). Pressure is production in the NFL, and few pressure the quarterback like the Raiders pass-rushing demon.
But 30 is an outlandish sack number.
Thirty quarterback takedowns would blow Michael Strahan's 22.5 single-season sack record out of the water. Mack would need to average 1.875 sacks per game to reach the 30-mark plateau. He'd also exactly double his three-year career total of 30 sacks.
We could discuss how ludicrous the thought of Mack racking up 30 sacks is when every offense is gearing their game plan to slow him down. We could point out that pass rush is one of the few shaky areas on a Raiders squad with Super Bowl aspirations. We could tell you that outside of Mack's 11 and Bruce Irvin's 7, not one Raider defender had more than 2.5 sacks last season.
Instead, we'll simply chalk up Carr's yearly prediction to an over exuberant player pumping up his friend before training camp opens.
"I can't wait to report to camp," Carr said. "The fire that's burning inside of me to get back out on the field ... to show people that it wasn't just one season, it wasn't just one fluke thing. We're here to stay. And this culture that we've built here in Oakland, it's something that's going to last. It fires me up to want to get back out there and show what we can do."