Do NOT overreact to these five NFL developments from Week 11; Saquon Barkley enters MVP race

In The First Read, Jeffri Chadiha provides a snapshot of the hottest stories and trends heading into Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season, including:

• Top three risers/sliders from Week 11
• Three games worthy of NFL Pro deep dives
• Most intriguing game of Week 12
• Top five MVP candidates

But to kick things off, five storylines we shouldn't be too quick to overreact to ...

We knew Week 11 of this NFL season would be interesting. The Steelers were tangling with the Ravens, Josh Allen was facing Patrick Mahomes once again, and the Eagles and Commanders were slugging it out for control of the NFC East. Those were just the highest-profile matchups of the weekend. A handful of other games featured teams that were either coming into their own (like the Broncos and Chargers) or trying to gain enough momentum to turn their respective seasons around (the Bengals, Rams, Colts and Saints).

It was the kind of weekend where we understood how much a team could impact its fortunes with either a win or loss. But inherently, it was also the kind of weekend that spawns overreaction. It’s important to note that there are still just under two months of football left to be played in the regular season. So, while the action over the past few days was quite compelling, a lot will change in the next few weeks.

That is the point of this edition of The First Read. Let’s not overreact to everything we saw in Week 11, especially these five developments that will certainly generate discussion in the coming days …

1) Kansas City’s hopes for earning the top seed in the AFC playoffs taking a hit. News flash: The Chiefs weren’t going to go undefeated this season. They were playing too many one-score games, and it was only a matter of time before that caught up with them, as it did in Sunday’s 30-21 loss at Buffalo. The Chiefs, now 9-1, still have a one-game lead in the race for that AFC first-round bye, but the 9-2 Bills own the crucial tiebreaker in the event both teams end up with the same record. The 8-2 Steelers are a player in this conversation, as well. But here’s the hard reality: The Chiefs don’t need the top seed to return to the Super Bowl and chase a three-peat. They had to play two road games in the playoffs last season, and they found ways to win those contests in Buffalo and in Baltimore. The takeaway from that accomplishment is that it doesn’t matter where the Chiefs play or how they’re seeded when the playoffs begin. What is crucial is that opponents bring the same mindset that the Bills brought to their win on Sunday. Buffalo wasn’t content to create an opportunity where they could have a supposedly safe lead late in the fourth quarter with Patrick Mahomes having one more shot at winning the game. Instead, it gave the ball to Josh Allen on fourth-and-2 and told him to win the dang thing. That’s how you beat the Chiefs -- not by hoping for the best-case scenarios when the playoffs begin. They’re going to be a house favorite once again. The only question is whether another AFC team has the nerve and the talent to do what Buffalo just did come tourney time.

2) Lamar Jackson falling to 1-4 against the Steelers. Let’s start with the obvious: Jackson was awful in Sunday’s 18-16 loss. He completed a season-low 48.5 percent of his passes and failed to convert a critical two-point conversion that could’ve tied the game late in the fourth quarter. Let’s also make this clear: The Ravens lost that game because most of their team was awful. Justin Tucker missed two field goals, and this isn’t the first time this season that he’s become unreliable. The Ravens also had three turnovers, which is a painful number for a team that only had six giveaways coming into that contest. The irony here is that Baltimore’s beleaguered defense produced one of its better efforts of the season, only to see it wasted in an eventual defeat. If there’s an upside to all this, it’s that the Ravens played horribly and still had a chance to tie the game in the final minutes. The Steelers are simply a tough matchup for them, and every team in the league has an opponent that can give it fits. Jackson still has a great chance to be the league MVP for the third time in six seasons. He’s actually been even more brilliant this year because he doesn’t have the benefit of exceptional defense or special teams to help. The Steelers got the best of him on Sunday. A little more assistance and he’ll be better off the next time these two teams meet.

3) The Falcons coming back to earth. It hasn’t been pretty around Atlanta lately. The Falcons lost to the Saints by three points in Week 10 and then took a 38-6 beatdown at the hands of the Broncos on Sunday. How bad were the Falcons in Denver? They managed just 226 yards of offense and watched rookie quarterback Bo Nix light up their defense for four touchdown passes. That’s not how you want to head into a bye week, especially not when the Chargers (7-3) and Vikings (8-2) await on the other side of that time off. Look, there’s no denying Atlanta needs to figure out its defense. It’s had problems pressuring opposing passers all season, and that was the case once again on Sunday. The nice thing about Atlanta is that the NFC South is far from the toughest division in football. The Falcons already are 4-1 in the division, and New Orleans would have to get red hot to surpass them in the next few weeks. Atlanta also finishes the season with some winnable games against the Raiders, Giants and Panthers. The Falcons head into their bye at 6-5. Unless they completely melt down, they’re going to find at least three more wins before the season ends. It’s not an ideal scenario, but Atlanta remains the safest bet to take the South when it’s all said and done.

4) The Colts winning a game with Anthony Richardson back in the lineup. It was nice to see Richardson redeem himself on Sunday. He played solid football against the Jets (20 of 30, 272 yards and three total touchdowns) and led his team on the game-winning drive, a possession that culminated with his 4-yard touchdown run with 46 seconds remaining. It was easily his best game of the season. The problem is that it's only one game in a year where Richardson has produced his share of head-scratching moments. Indianapolis benched the quarterback because his play had become too erratic, and the Colts felt they needed a change in order to make a run at a postseason spot. The only reason Richardson returned to the lineup was because Joe Flacco couldn’t do much to help Indy win games, either. That isn’t a reason to jump on the Richardson bandwagon today. This is a young quarterback who only threw 393 passes in college and now has appeared in 11 NFL games. This is a process. He needs to play through his mistakes. And there will be more mistakes and more days like the ones that led to his benching. The Colts may have been forced to accept that fact this season because they ran out of options, but that’s exactly why patience is the best way to approach dealing with Indianapolis these days.

5) Washington continuing newfound struggles on offense. The Commanders have lost two straight games -- to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia -- and it’s impossible to not notice the recent decline of their offense. Washington has averaged just 253 yards in those losses after averaging 392 yards in its first nine contests. The Commanders’ scoring average also has dipped, going from 29.2 in the first nine games to 22.5 in those recent defeats. Now for the really scary part: Jayden Daniels, their rookie star quarterback, doesn’t look the same, either. Daniels was playing like a legitimate MVP candidate a few weeks ago. He only connected on 59 percent of his passes in the last two losses and the highlight-reel moments have vanished considerably. It’s worth noting that Daniels hasn’t been the same since he injured his ribs in a Week 7 win over Carolina. Another factor is the decline of a run game that powered a lot of this team’s earlier success. The Commanders ran for just 153 yards combined over the past two weeks, which tells you this team is also facing better defenses lately. The Steelers have an elite unit, and the Eagles have played much better recently on that side of the football. It might just be as simple as that. The Commanders still have three more games against horrible defenses -- two against Dallas and another against Tennessee (26th in scoring D) -- so we’ll see if things improve then. The smart money says they will.

THREE UP

THREE DOWN

WORTHY OF NFL PRO DEEP DIVES

1. Packers over Bears. A blocked field goal in the final seconds saves a victory for Green Bay.
2. Seahawks over 49ers. Geno Smith pulls off the comeback win by running for a touchdown in the final seconds.
3. Chargers over Bengals. Cincinnati overcomes a 21-point deficit in the second half but ends up losing after a J.K. Dobbins touchdown run late in the fourth quarter.

MOST INTRIGUING GAME OF WEEK 12

MVP WATCH

A simple ranking of the top five candidates, which will be updated weekly, depending on performance. Here is how it stands heading into Week 12 (with DraftKings odds as of 9 a.m. ET on Monday, Nov. 18):

EXTRA POINT

My slowly evolving Super Bowl pick, which also will be updated each week, depending on performances: Lions over Bills.

Previous picks:

• Week 10: Lions over Bills
• Week 9: Lions over Bills
• Week 8: Lions over Bills
• Week 7: Ravens over Lions
• Week 6: Ravens over Vikings
• Week 5: Ravens over Vikings
• Week 4: Bills over Vikings
• Week 3: Bills over Packers
• Week 2: Lions over Bengals
• Week 1: Lions over Texans

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