Hindsight, as they say, is 20/20.
It doesn't take much searching to find evidence of writers and analysts overlooking the Los Angeles Rams' offense heading into the 2023 season. Very few predicted that a unit featuring an aging Matthew Stafford, shoddy offensive line and banged-up Cooper Kupp would be average, let alone a top-10 attack. But then Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams shocked the world, helping the Rams finish as the seventh-best offense in total yards.
Every team in the NFL passed on both Nacua and Williams at least twice in their respective NFL drafts, and the vast majority of fantasy leagues left them on the waiver wire through Week 1.
But what if you hadn’t? Nacua and Williams were the two most rostered players on fantasy championship teams last year. If you managed to acquire both, you almost certainly took home the hardware. You needed hindsight ... in advance. But unless you have a heavily modified DeLorean, a magical phone booth, or the Time Stone, that is tough to obtain.
So, what’s the next best thing? How about 18 infallibly accurate tips for constructing the perfect draft strategy to dominate every league? (For legal reasons, this is hyperbole. Mostly.)
Welcome to the second annual edition of my fantasy football DO's & DON’Ts. Eat up, enjoy, and I’ll see you in Week 17 for the ‘ship (because, bonus tip, you should never have your title match in Week 18).
NOTE: Discussions of rounds, ADPs, etc. are based on 12-team PPR leagues, using aggregate ADP data from 4for4.com.
DO ...
... have a plan. It sounds obvious, but you might be surprised how many fantasy managers show up to the draft with a one-page cheat sheet, a LaDainian Tomlinson jersey and a dream. Fantasy drafts are complex battlegrounds, and if you go in without a solid strategy, you’re going to end up panic-picking by Round 6. Instead, get to know the relevant rankings, average draft position (ADP), positional scarcity, league tendencies and everything you can to build a solid blueprint for the chaos to come (i.e. see the next 17 tips).
... know the new NFL landscape. Did you know Kirk Cousins is now quarterbacking the Atlanta Falcons? That Saquon Barkley is the Eagles’ starting running back? How about that the Seahawks replaced OC Shane Waldron (and his snail’s pace offense) with Ryan Grubb, formerly of the Washington Huskies? If you haven’t had your finger on the pulse of the league since January, some of this stuff is going to go unnoticed ... to your detriment. As always, I highly recommend colleague Adam Rank’s State of the Franchise series as a detailed primer on all 32 teams heading into 2024.
... follow the volume. Last year, six of the top eight running backs in total fantasy points were also in the top eight in touches. And of the 10 wideouts to see 150-plus targets, only one finished with fewer than 250 fantasy points (Garrett Wilson). Opportunity is king in fantasy football. Finding the spots where those opportunities tell a promising story is a key component of smart drafting. One example in 2024: The Bills and Chargers each watched more than 250 targets depart this offseason. Someone will need to pick up the slack in those offenses, making guys like Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Ladd McConkey and Joshua Palmer excellent upside targets in the middle-to-late rounds.
... invest in ascending offenses. Everyone knows the Cowboys and 49ers are going to churn out points and yards, and their star players are priced accordingly. The real value comes from upside offenses primed to outperform expectations. The Dolphins and Rams each scored nearly 100 points more in 2023 than they had in 2022. They also gave us the WR2 (Tyreek Hill), WR6 (Puka Nacua), RB2 (Kyren Williams), RB4 (Raheem Mostert) and RB5 (De’Von Achane) in points per game. My favorite targets in 2024: the Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers.
... get one of the onesies in the first four rounds. In most fantasy leagues, there is only one starting slot for a quarterback and one for a tight end. As a result, these “onesie” positions sometimes end up overlooked as drafters collect running backs and wide receivers. But by their very nature, these positions offer the best week-to-week positional advantage if you snag one of the elite stars. I recommend dedicating (at least) one of your first four picks to either a QB or TE. Consider Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts in the third round, or Lamar Jackson, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews or Dalton Kincaid in the fourth.
... stuff your bench with league-winning upside. Last August, somewhere in the double-digit rounds, you faced a choice between then-Patriots RB Ezekiel Elliott -- the inefficient backup on arguably the league’s worst offense -- and a couple of lesser-known backs competing for snaps in Miami. If you picked Zeke, you got the RB30 -- a “nice value” over his RB40 ADP. But if you picked one of the Dolphins, you got Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane. Don’t draft RB3s at an RB4 price. Draft league-winners. Some of my favorite targets in 2024: Chase Brown, Brian Thomas Jr., Pat Freiermuth, Khalil Shakir, Aaron Rodgers (yes, he’s somehow underrated) and Rico Dowdle.
... handcuff running backs -- from other managers’ teams. If you read this tip last year, you might have picked up Jerome Ford (who became the Cleveland starter after Nick Chubb’s knee injury) or Zamir White (who finished the year with four straight top-20 weeks). This is the simplest way to follow the “league-winning upside” tip. Injuries are unfortunately common in this sport and a handful of backups will be starting by October. A few of the top names to know: Trey Benson (ARI), Blake Corum (LAR), Ty Chandler (MIN), Kendre Miller (NO), Ray Davis (BUF) and Jordan Mason (SF).
... target rookies. Last year was a bit of a rookie renaissance, with two running backs, one wide receiver, two tight ends and a quarterback all finishing top-12 at their positions in Year 1. But the league has been steadily shifting in that direction in recent years, and fantasy managers need to take notice. Rookie WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers are both worth drafting in the early rounds, QBs Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams are both in the fringe QB1 conversation, Brock Bowers should be started in most leagues from Week 1 and RBs like Jonathon Brooks and Jaylen Wright might hold late-season surge upside.
... draft players you like. As always, it’s important to remember fantasy football should be fun. When Sundays, Mondays and Thursdays (and sometimes Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays) roll around, it’s more enjoyable when the players you’d root for naturally are also putting up points for your fantasy squad. I like watching Kyler Murray run. I will be drafting accordingly. (He’s also just an unfathomably good value this season.)
So now that you know what to do, you’re good to go, right? Wrong. There’s a whole lot of potential pitfalls in the course of a fantasy draft, and avoiding catastrophic mistakes is just as crucial as executing your strategy.
DON'T ...
... overplan. Wait, what? Didn’t I just say to have a plan? Which one is it? Both, dear reader. You should have a thoughtful approach to your draft (as per all the other tips). But that doesn’t necessarily mean “start RB-RB” or “wait until the 10th round to draft a QB,” or “Kyle Pitts, no matter what!” Take-lock strategies are a surefire way to set yourself up for “draft tilt,” when someone inevitably snipes your player or derails your plan. Be fluid and flexible, let the draft come to you, and then implement your preparation to execute in the moment.
... let recency bias reign. If you’ve drafted Cooper Kupp, Kyle Pitts or Kyler Murray in either of the last couple seasons, you’re probably at or very near the “never again” stage with all three. Flush that mindset. Situations change, injuries heal and talent (usually) wins out. Each of these guys -- and at least eight others I’ve pegged for bounce-back years -- have top-tier upside. Example: In this space last year, I besmirched Christian Watson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth in a span of 100 words. None of them were particularly impressive in 2023. This year, I love all three as draft values.
... buy the “injury-prone” narrative. With rare exceptions, players are not injury-prone just because they've missed games in multiple seasons. Many NFL injuries are freak accidents, not the product of brittle bones or imbalanced hamstrings. Raheem Mostert had earned that label after eight seasons in the league ... then he led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season. A few players that have struggled with injury in the past that I’m drafting in 2024 include Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, George Kittle, James Conner, Kyler Murray and Christian Watson (of the aforementioned imbalanced hammies). J.K. Dobbins is also an interesting name, but I’m more concerned about his recovery from past injuries than his ability to avoid new ones.
... be afraid to buck the trends. If you have the 1.01 and don’t take Christian McCaffrey, your league will probably laugh at you. And fair enough, he’s as foolproof a top pick as you’ll see. But consider this: Five straight consensus 1.01 picks have missed at least five games in the ensuing season, and the last guy to repeat as the RB1 overall was Priest Holmes ... in 2002-2003. “Consensus” does not always mean “right” or even “best.” I wouldn’t shame anyone for taking Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall at 1.01, nor would I shame you for taking Jayden Daniels three rounds ahead of ADP or drafting Bills wideouts in the ninth, 10th and 11th rounds. If there’s one thing we know for sure in fantasy football, it’s that we don’t know a whole lot.
... fear bad offenses -- in all cases. Ideally, you want to target the best players on the best offenses, but they’re in limited supply. Landing the high-volume anchors of iffy offenses can be an underrated consolation. In 2023, Breece Hall was the fantasy RB2 on one of the league’s worst offenses. As you may have guessed, three-down running backs are the best pieces to target on these teams -- players like Rhamondre Stevenson, Javonte Williams and rookie Jonathon Brooks (when healthy) come to mind for 2024.
... avoid RBBCs (running back by committee). In last year’s version of this tip, I listed Miami, Detroit, Buffalo and Baltimore as strong teams to target despite unclear RB depth charts. Those teams ended up producing not four but six top-25 running backs, with both the Dolphins and Lions producing two. Running back by committee is the way of the modern NFL, and we have to evolve with it. For 2024, I’m once again targeting Miami and Detroit, while adding in the Chargers, Steelers, Bears, Titans, Bengals and Commanders as intriguing multi-back contenders.
... let “schedule difficulty” sway your decisions. In 2022, the Chiefs defense allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including a league-high 33 passing touchdowns. Last season, Kansas City allowed the eighth-fewest points to the position, with just 19 TDs. The NFL is ever-changing. Don’t let a player’s “strength of schedule” -- whether enticing or daunting -- significantly shift their place in your rankings.
... pass the positional cliffs without at least one player. At each position in fantasy, there’s a “cliff” beyond which you’re going to feel very uncomfortable taking your “first guy.” While there are still sleepers aplenty, confidence takes a nosedive past these marks. For me, they occur after RB20 (James Conner), WR22 (DK Metcalf), TE7 (Kyle Pitts) and QB12 (Jayden Daniels). If you can have one of each position by Round 7 or 8, you’ll leave your draft feeling much more stable.
... run from risk. Embrace it. If you’re happy to make your fantasy playoffs and lose in the first round, you can ignore this tip. If you’re gunning for the championship (as you should be), then listen up: This is a game of risks, and you have to take big shots to win big prizes. Whether it’s the sleeper you snag two rounds early or the blockbuster trade you make in Week 2, we’re not here to “play it safe.” Good luck, and as someone in that one young adult novel once said, “May the odds be ever in your favor.”