Fantasy football 2024: Top 10 league-winners

Did you really think I wasn’t going to include my guy, Kyle Pitts? I have been on this train for four seasons now, so there is no way I am jumping off right before the breakout. Last season Pitts was still working his way back from the knee injury that ended his 2022 campaign in Week 11. Pitts’ usage over the last two years under Arthur Smith has been maddening, but there is plenty of reason to believe that will change after the team’s offseason moves. Atlanta has a new offensive play-caller in Zac Robinson and quarterback in Kirk Cousins. Two years ago, 59 percent of Pitts’ targets were uncatchable, the highest rate in the NFL, per PFF. Last year, Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder were bottom two in catchable target rate, while Cousins finished behind only Patrick Mahomes in the category. Being fully healthy for the entire offseason is also huge, leading me to this conclusion: This is the season it all comes together for the generational talent.  

I originally planned to write about George Pickens here, but I already had him as my top WR value. So let’s mix it up a bit. Kyler Murray is a huge QB value, James Conner might be the most undervalued player in fantasy, and there are two big Cardinals pass catchers to target in the early rounds (Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.). The third-year tight end broke out midway through the 2023 season and was at his best once Murray returned to action in Week 10. From that point on, McBride averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game, which would have led all tight ends across 17 games. He also accounted for 30.1 percent of Murray’s completions. McBride brings the same elite upside as Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce, but he’ll be the cheapest of the three. Take advantage.  

The No. 6 overall pick can do it all. Malik Nabers can line up out wide or in the slot. He can win deep and is just as big a threat to score on a screen. Rookie receivers have been making a big impact in the NFL for years, and Nabers looks to be next in line. In fact, from 2010 to 2023, there were eight receivers selected in the first six picks of the NFL draft and all but one returned at least WR3 value in Year 1. Half of them met last season’s criteria to be a top-25 wideout in fantasy. The Giants' offense will run through Nabers, so volume won’t be an issue. His floor is also much safer than most think and his ceiling is WR1 in Year 1.

Isiah Pacheco has established himself as a reliable fantasy option, but this is the year he steps into the elite range, with the goods to finish as a top-five fantasy RB, if not higher. Last season, Pacheco averaged 19 fantasy points per game when he played over 60 percent of the snaps. His target rate doubled from his rookie season, and his pass game usage increased as the season progressed. With Jerick McKinnon no longer on the roster, a career high in targets is on tap for Pacheco. He could also see a career high in touches with the third-year running back having limited competition behind him. Plus, the Chiefs’ high-powered offense should provide Pacheco, who scored nearly 80 percent of Kansas City’s rush TDs last season (highest rate in the NFL), plenty of scoring opportunities.

Anthony Richardson may have averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game as a rookie, but he only played two full contests out of his four games total. In those two full games, Richardson averaged 25.3 fantasy points per contest, which would have been the most of any QB over a 17-game slate. He also led all quarterbacks with 0.73 fantasy points per dropback (min. 50 dropbacks). Richardson is capable of scoring double-digit rushing touchdowns like Buffalo's Josh Allen and Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts, and he can run for more yards than either of them. A huge benefit for Richardson is the fact that he’s working with Shane Steichen, part of the brain trust that created the Brotherly Shove in Philly and a coach who has shown he can get the most out of a passing attack. With the Colts adding more weapons around their young passer, including rookie Adonai Mitchell, Richardson’s ceiling is QB1 in fantasy football in 2024. He just has to stay healthy.

Khalil Shakir is one of my favorite receiver values, but if anyone brings league-winning upside from that room, it’s Keon Coleman. He’s a big-bodied receiver who excels at winning contested catches. He has a huge catch radius and should immediately thrive in the red zone. He can be a field-stretcher and a YAC weapon. He struggles to create separation, but when you have his catching ability, paired with arguably the strongest-armed QB in the league, you can overcome that issue. He is unlike any weapon Josh Allen has ever had on the roster before. There might be growing pains early on, as there are with any rookie, but he could blossom into a league-winner over the course of the season. Dalton Kincaid also has league-winner type of upside in this offense with so much volume up for grabs after the departure of Stefon Diggs.  

You will have to pay up to get De’Von Achane, with the cost typically ranging from a late second-round pick to an early third-round selection. There is risk with that price, which is why I don’t want to overexpose myself to Achane. But I certainly want to make sure I have him in a couple spots. If you are talking league-winning upside, perhaps no one brings more than Achane. Last season he averaged 7.8 yards per carry -- the most YPC in a single season by an NFL running back since 1934. He averaged 22.9 fantasy PPG when he had at least 10 touches. Also, Achane led all running backs in yards before and after contact per carry and rate of runs to go for 10-plus yards. We saw him and Raheem Mostert split the workload, with Achane getting the edge in targets but Mostert getting goal-line use down the stretch for the Dolphins. If Achane can see a consistent 15 touches per week, his upside is off the charts.  

I recently wrote about Cooper Kupp as one of my favorite wide receiver values, but he also brings league-winning upside. In that piece I detailed how he saw the same volume as Puka Nacua when healthy and was a WR1 down the stretch. You should go read it! One thing I didn’t discuss there is Kupp’s massively high ceiling. In 2021, Kupp scored the most fantasy points ever by a receiver. In 2022, he was on pace for the second-most ever until injury interfered. Injuries have robbed Kupp of 13 games in the past two seasons, but you get a discount for that baked into his ADP. Plus, Nacua is the Rams receiver dealing with an injury right now. And Matthew Stafford, who has generated some of the greatest receiving seasons ever, is still his QB. If Kupp stays healthy, he could easily return to elite form.

Quarterbacks who can do damage as runners are cheat codes in fantasy football. Think about it: 10 rushing yards is equivalent to 25 passing yards in fantasy. So, every 100 rushing yards equates to 250 passing yards. Plus, every rushing TD is worth the same as 1.5 passing touchdowns in the majority of leagues. And Jayden Daniels can run with the best of them. He rushed for 2,000-plus yards and 21 touchdowns with LSU in the past two seasons. Dual-threat QBs like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, to name a few, are QB1s in fantasy from the moment they start. Daniels is the next cheat-code QB. I haven’t even mentioned that he’s a talented passer with proven weapons around him. In fact, he’s the only player in FBS history to finish his career with 12,000-plus passing yards and 3,000-plus rushing yards. You can draft him as a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2, but he brings top-five upside.  

A rookie coming off a torn ACL is my No. 1 league-winning candidate of the year? Yup. We have seen this before. Let me take you back to the summer of 2015, when a young Todd Gurley was fresh off a November ACL tear and joining a Rams offense that didn’t look all that promising. Gurley missed the first two games, was eased into the third and then was an absolute league-winner. Now that doesn’t mean Brooks is destined to be the next Gurley, but he could have a similar type of rookie season. Brooks was the only running back selected in the first two rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft after running for over 1,100 yards and 10 TDs in 11 games for Texas last season. He is a powerful back who can run through contact and he can make defenders miss, too. He has burst and explosiveness for days. Plus, the Panthers made big investments to revamp the offense in the offseason, including hiring head coach Dave Canales, who peppered his RB with targets as offensive coordinator in Tampa last season. There is a ton of upside here and Brooks can be had in the eighth round of drafts.