We have made it (successfully?) through the first month of the season. If we’ve learned anything, it’s that we haven’t learned much. Offense is down. Tight ends are non-existent. Those late-round rookie sleepers you had high hopes for have yet to show up.
On second thought, I guess we’ve learned a lot. It just feels like a lot of it hasn’t been positive. But that’s OK. There’s still plenty of season left. Unless you’re 0-4. In that case, you’re in a heap of trouble. Still, it’s not over for you. There will be chances to make moves. Go hard on the waiver wire. Flood the zone with trade offers. Most importantly, take some big, risky lineup swings every week.
That’s where the fantasy sleepers column comes in. As usual, I’ve got a group of players who might not seem all that appealing at first glance. But if you squint really hard and look at things from a different perspective, you might see something worthwhile. Dare I say, beautiful? I don’t dare? OK. Well, nonetheless, consider it a chance to find some weekly diamonds in the rough. Or at least cubic zirconia.
Here are some names for Week 5.
QUARTERBACK
Week 4 wasn’t spectacular for Lawrence. But it was his best fantasy week of the season. Jacksonville’s once and future franchise quarterback only had 169 passing yards. It was the third time in four games that Lawrence had less than 180 passing yards. That’s the bad news. Yet he had multiple touchdown passes for the first time all year. That was the encouraging news.
Hopefully, Lawrence and the Jaguars can spin this forward in Week 5 against the Colts. Indy’s defense has been a soft target for fantasy managers through the first month of the season. In Week 4, it was Justin Fields who tamed the Colts with 312 passing yards and three total touchdowns (two rushing). Indianapolis has allowed multiple touchdowns to three of the four QBs it’s faced this season. The only exception was Malik Willis, who was making his first start with the Packers just weeks after joining the team. With that as a backdrop, Lawrence managers could finally have a reason to feel optimistic in Week 5.
Are you old enough to remember the first two weeks of the 2024 season? Way back in that golden age, Carr and the Saints offense were the talk of the NFL. Carr was averaging more than 220 passing yards with five total passing touchdowns. The Saints were steamrolling opponents and Klint Kubiak was on the verge of being anointed the next great NFL offensive coordinator. Then Weeks 3 and 4 happened. Carr’s production tanked, and the Saints offense came back to Earth.
I know it feels counterintuitive, but the Chiefs could offer a chance for Carr and the Saints to rebound. Kansas City had a tough time with Baltimore and Cincinnati. Both teams are top 10 in rushing EPA, which helped open up the passing game. Comparatively, the Falcons and Chargers -- KC’s most recent opponents -- are bottom seven in that stat. With the Saints being one of the more effective teams on the ground, the Chiefs will need to dedicate resources to slowing Alvin Kamara. That should create some opportunities downfield for Carr and his pass-catchers.
RUNNING BACK
I’ve had an on-again, off-again fantasy football relationship with Williams. Admittedly, it’s not his fault. Or, at least, I choose to believe it’s not. He’s the Broncos' clear leader in backfield snaps and has the lion’s share of the rushing attempts. He’s also heavily involved in the passing game, with 49 percent route participation and a 20 percent target rate. The problem has been an offensive line that ranks as one of the worst run blocking units around. Compound that with a quarterback struggling with the intricacies of the forward pass and it’s all bad in Denver.
But there is hope! The silver (and black) lining in the Broncos’ cloud comes in the form of a Raiders defense that has been running-back friendly in 2024. Vegas is conceding more than five yards per carry to running backs while also allowing nearly six yards per reception. Don’t expect Denver to develop a potent downfield passing game before Sunday. As long as Williams’ usage remains constant, he could be set up for one of his better performances of the season.
Just when everyone had given up on D'Andre Swift, the Bears running back had his best fantasy day ever. It seemed to slow the charge of Roschon Johnson, who was earning snaps after being held back in favor of Travis Homer the first two weeks. We wait to see if Week 4 really was Swift holding off Johnson, or if it was merely delaying the inevitable. Of 53 qualified rushers (QBs included), just three players have a lower rushing EPA than Swift. One big game doesn’t erase his overall inefficiency.
Johnson has made his own case to earn more snaps, saying last week, per ESPN, that he's “someone that can make the right decisions." One suspects Johnson will get that chance this week against Carolina. The Panthers have allowed at least 140 rushing yards in three of four games. They’ve also surrendered a rushing score in every game this season. Chicago’s problematic offensive line could put a cap on how effective the run game is this week. But unless the Panthers get a full defensive transfusion, expect this unit to leak rushing yards. Johnson should be a beneficiary and earn flex starts in deeper leagues.
I wasn’t sure what to expect from Josh Jacobs when signed with the Green Bay Packers in free agency. One thing I was convinced of was that he would have backfield competition. I believed that person was going to be MarShawn Lloyd. So far, Lloyd has been unable to stay healthy and is currently on injured reserve. In Lloyd’s place, Wilson has taken the opportunity and run with it. Over the past two weeks, the former undrafted free agent is earning more snaps and touches. At times, he’s looked like the more efficient and explosive of Green Bay’s running backs.
Last week, Wilson (and Jacobs) were game-scripted out of action after the Vikings took a big early lead. That shouldn’t be the case this week against the Rams. No defense has allowed more rushing yards than Los Angeles. Only two defenses face more rushing attempts per game on average. The Packers should be able to move the ball at will, which should allow for Jacobs and Wilson to close things out on the ground. Starting Wilson won’t be for everyone but managers in deeper leagues should consider giving him a spot in their lineups.
Stevenson resides in a fantasy netherworld. He’s not playing poorly enough that you think of him as a traditional sleeper. But he’s not playing well enough that you can plug him into your lineup with supreme confidence. That latter reason feels like justification for him to be in this space. The argument against Stevenson this year was that, despite being a lead RB, he was in an offense that wasn’t expected to produce much. So far, those fears have come true. He is far and away the leader in backfield snaps and touches. Yet New England has been one of the worst offenses in the league -- and now veteran stalwart David Andrews is likely to miss the rest of the season.
This week, however, is a chance for Stevenson to end up on the positive side of the fantasy ledger. The Dolphins has been mediocre, at best, this year. Miami has allowed 100 rushing yards in every game and has given up multiple rushing scores in three straight contests. Because Mike McDaniel’s offense can’t move the ball without Tua Tagovailoa, game script shouldn’t be an issue for New England. If the game stays close, Stevenson should get plenty of touches. That could be enough for him to post his first quality fantasy total since Week 2.
WIDE RECEIVER
Welcome back, Jordan Love! It was fun watching Matt LaFleur scheme things up for Malik Willis. The young QB looked good and Green Bay won both of the games he started. But most fantasy managers were on the outside looking in. The passing game was deemphasized, and it was hard to count on the Packers receivers.
Love’s return immediately reinjected life back into the wideouts. Jayden Reed was once again the headliner, but Wicks also found himself in a big role. That role was necessitated by an injury to Christian Watson, who will likely miss this week’s game against the Rams. Los Angeles’ defense has been a soft target for fantasy managers this season, having allowed the second-most receiving TDs to wideouts. That shouldn’t change this week. Wicks and his big-play potential are worthy of a flex spot in most lineups this week.
Touting a wide receiver whose quarterback struggles with the forward pass seems like a spot of madness. But there was never a genius without a tincture of madness. At least that’s what I’m telling myself as I write this. Last season, Sutton outperformed his ADP thanks to a career-high 10 touchdowns. The early returns of the Broncos offense with Bo Nix suggest Sutton will have a major uphill climb to reach that mark again.
But a Week 5 matchup against the Raiders could be a shot in the arm. The Las Vegas secondary has given up some big games recently. In Week 3, it was Diontae Johnson carving up the defense for 122 yards and a score. Last week, Jerry Jeudy went for six catches and 72 yards. Vegas’ numbers could have looked even worse had Amari Cooper’s long touchdown not been called back for holding. Maxx Crosby’s availability will impact Nix’s time to throw, but if the rookie can connect with the heavily targeted Sutton, there will be chances for big plays against Denver’s longtime rival.
TIGHT END
I have used “Mike Gesicki” as shorthand for unsatisfying fantasy tight ends. Not good enough to start. Not bad enough to bench. Being on a roster loaded with wide receiver talent was supposed to improve his lot in life. Alas, through four weeks, Gesicki is second only to Ja’Marr Chase in most major Bengals receiving categories. Until last week’s one target performance, the veteran tight end had seen a consistent target share.
Happy target days could be here again in Week 5. The Bengals face the Ravens as they continue to try to pull their season out of the ashes. Baltimore has been a nice landing spot for fantasy tight ends this season, with the Ravens defense allowing a top-12 tight end finish in three consecutive weeks. Two of those players -- Brock Bowers and Jake Ferguson -- finished with more than 90 receiving yards. Barring a broken play or a long catch-and-run, Gesicki will be hard-pressed to post that many yards. But he should see plenty of targets, which should lead to a good fantasy day.
DEFENSE
New England’s defense was supposed to be one of its strengths this season. The last two weeks haven’t painted the prettiest picture. In Week 3, the Pats gave up 400 yards of offense to the Jets. Week 4 saw them surrender 431 yards to the 49ers. That’s a simplification. It doesn’t help that New England’s offense has gained the fewest yards and generated the second-fewest points. That will automatically put a defense in a bad situation.
Consider this week’s game against Miami as a get-right opportunity. Since Tua Tagovailoa went down with a concussion, the Dolphins offense has been stuck in the mud. Neither Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle nor Tyler Huntley have shown that they can move this attack. Huntley found himself under heavy pressure last week from a Titans defense that declined to even show blitz. This won’t be a fun game to watch, but if there’s a chance to stream New England’s defense, this is the one.