Fantasy sleepers, NFL Week 12: Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes to cook?

While you were busy handwringing over a lack of production from the Dolphins wide receivers, you might not have noticed that Tagovailoa just put together his best fantasy performance of the season. He threw for 288 yards and three scores against the Raiders. It was Tagovailoa’s first three-touchdown game since Week 8 of last season -- a home win over the New England Patriots. 

It just so happens that Week 12 features a Miami home game against the New England Patriots. The Pats’ secondary has had an up-and-down year. Christian Gonzalez remains elite, but his help hasn’t always been helping. Last week, Matthew Stafford threw for 295 yards and four touchdowns. Two weeks prior, it was Mason Rudolph with a pair of TD passes. Tua has spread the ball around this year -– four Dolphins have at least 26 looks from Tagovailoa. That’s not satisfying for fantasy, but it does make the offense more difficult to defend. That can only help Tua stay hot and find space in some fantasy lineups. 

The point has been made repeatedly that the 2024 version of Mahomes is a matchup-based fantasy starter. There are plenty of real football metrics out there that prove Mahomes is having a good year in actual football. But any fantasy managers struggling with Mahomes’ 15.8 points per game is probably giving those stats a serious side eye. It was awesome to see him post 24 points against the Buccaneers in Week 9. The 16.19 he’s averaged in the two games since then? Not so great. 

Rejoice, beleaguered Mahomes managers! Your time has come again. This week, the Chiefs try to rebound from their first loss of the season with a trip to Charlotte to take on the Panthers. Carolina’s defense has been a mixed bag. They’re middle of the pack in passing yards allowed but enjoy giving up touchdown passes. The Panthers have surrendered 18 touchdown strikes -- seventh-most in the league. Mahomes seems to be getting hot in that regard. He’s had three touchdown passes in two of the last three games. With a full complement of pass catchers, this could be another good Mahomes fantasy outing. 

Running backs have been feasting on the Cowboys defense in 2024. Dallas is the fourth-best matchup for fantasy rushers, thanks to allowing more than 1,500 rushing yards and a league-high 18 touchdowns on the ground. Joe Mixon was the latest to gash Dallas, posting 109 rushing yards and three scores on Monday night. 

Robinson returned from injury last week to resume his spot as Washington’s RB1. The division of labor is clear in Washington. Austin Ekeler handles most of the backfield targets, while Robinson gets the bulk of the carries. Dallas’ run defense is a glaring deficiency. Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels is in a mini slump. Feeding your productive running back against a porous defense feels almost therapeutic. Robinson could have a strong RB1 type of day. 

The last time we saw Tracy, he was unfortunately coughing up a fumble that would cost the Giants a win in Germany. Ball security issues aside, Tracy has completed his backfield takeover from Devin Singletary. Since Week 5, Tracy has had 20-plus touches four times. He’s logged more than 100 rushing yards three times and scored three touchdowns.  

This week, the Giants might need to lean on him a little more to take the pressure off Tommy DeVito. Asking him to perform at Saquon Barkley’s heroic level from last season is quite unfair. What’s reasonable is asking him to contribute to the passing game against the defense allowing the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs. That’s enough to make Tracy a strong flex play in Week 12. 

The Bears' passing game hasn’t exactly been what we wanted it to be this year. Caleb Williams has struggled at times and the trio of wide receivers has underwhelmed. But there are reasons to believe it’s not as bad as it seems. The Bears are throwing the ball 56 percent of the time --- just above the league average. It’s also a passing attack funneled primarily through the three wideouts. That sort of predictability is reassuring. 

As the season progresses, Odunze is looking like a preferred target for Williams. Over Chicago’s last three games, Odunze has a team-high 192 receiving yards, and most of his work is being done as a vertical option. That bodes well against the Vikings this week. Minnesota has been a popular target for fantasy receivers because Brian Flores’ defense has been prone to giving up big plays. The Vikes have allowed the fourth-most explosive pass plays in 2024. That should give Williams and Odunze a chance to take some shots downfield. With his recent volume, Odunze has a chance for a nice WR3-type game. 

It’s been a tough year for some highly touted wide receiver prospects. Rome Odunze has struggled. Malik Nabers has regressed statistically after a hot start. And then there’s Harrison. Considered the top prospect in this class by most observers and projected to be a fantasy stud from the get-go, MHJ has had a very forgettable rookie campaign. Some of the issue is a passing game that is throwing the ball at a below average rate. Nonetheless, Harrison is second on the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards, while leading the Cardinals in receiving scores. 

This week, the Cards visit the Seahawks in a big NFC West contest. The 'Hawks have been victimized by receivers running intermediate routes over the past few weeks. Jauan Jennings was the most recent perpetrator. Cooper Kupp and Khalil Shakir did the deed in previous weeks. With MHJ living between 10 and 20 air yards downfield, this could be one of his better opportunities this season -- especially if the game turns into a scorefest.

The Panthers have become an offense with just enough potential to keep you intrigued but not enough production to feel confident. Aside from Chuba Hubbard, it’s been hard to find consistency. We’ve tried to make fetch happen with Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker. Rookie Sanders is the latest entry to that club.  

The big, athletic tight end has been getting a lot of work lately. Since Week 5, he leads the Panthers in targets and receptions. He’s earned a target on 20 percent of his routes in that span. Now he's facing off with a Chiefs defense that has been generous to tight ends. Sanders obviously has a lower ceiling than many of the tight ends who’ve succeeded against Kansas City. But as an easy outlet for Bryce Young while occasionally running downfield missions, Sanders should see a solid volume of targets in a potential pass-heavy contest. 

We’ve been waiting for a moment to truly hype Johnson. This might be it. Also, “hype” might be too strong of a word. Johnson has been long on potential but short on production. The rookie has just one game with more than 50 receiving yards, but the arrow is pointing up. Johnson’s target share and average depth of target have been steadily rising. He’s also starting to become a trusted option on third down. 

The elevation of Tommy DeVito to the starting role is something of a concern, but it might not be all bad. The Bucs’ passing defense has been a gift to fantasy managers everywhere this season. Entering Week 11, Tampa had allowed the second-most receiving yards to tight ends. DeVito won’t likely push the ball downfield. Of quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts last season, DeVito’s air yards per attempt was the third-lowest. That could mean Johnson gets plenty of looks in a game that could force Big Blue to the air frequently to keep pace with a high-scoring Tampa attack.

The idea of streaming the Buccaneers defense would have been laughable for most of the season. I admit to raising an eyebrow recently when Michael F. Florio suggested adding them as a DST option for the fantasy playoffs. But he might be onto something. Tampa gets a series of inept offenses down the stretch, including the Cowboys and Panthers in the final two weeks of the fantasy postseason. 

That run starts this week with the Giants. Tampa would have been a solid streaming option with Daniel Jones starting for Big Blue. With Tommy Cutlets getting the call, the Bucs will be a popular choice for managers whose regular defense is on a bye or has a bad matchup. DeVito was a nice story last year, but the reality is that the Giants offense didn’t do much with him under center. Tampa’s offense has hummed consistently and expects Mike Evans to be back this week. If DeVito is forced into a scorefest -- which I'm counting on having also tabbed Tyrone Tracy and Theo Johnson in this column -- it opens opportunities for the Bucs to get sacks and turnovers.

The Cowboys offense is a mess. You probably didn’t need me to tell you this. Much of the lead-up to the latest Dallas debacle on Monday night was spent on roof issues and the need for drapery at AT&T Stadium. Then Cooper Rush was sacked five times and the Cowboys turned it over twice in the latest in a series of depressing losses.  

It was much less depressing if you streamed Houston's defense. The Texans, like the Eagles before them, capitalized on Dallas’ offensive discombobulation to finish as the week’s top scoring fantasy defense. With eight sacks allowed and seven giveaways since Rush took over at quarterback, the star on the side of the helmet makes for an easy target for anyone looking to stream defenses the rest of the way.