Fantasy sleepers, Week 13: Favorable matchup for Bryce Young; All aboard the Gus Bus!

Maybe taking a few weeks to watch and learn from the sideline did Young some good. In the two starts he made to open the year, Young scored a grand total of 11.6 fantasy points. Since returning from his exile in Week 8, Young has averaged nearly 13 points per contest. Yeah, that’s not great. But he’s also faced a few tough defenses. In Week 13, he gets a bit of a break. 

That’s because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming to town. Tampa has been one of our favorite targets for sleepers and streamers all season. Eight times this season, the Bucs have allowed a QB to finish in the top 12. The nature of the Panthers offense means Young’s ceiling is lower than many quarterbacks, and in a week with no teams on a bye, he’s better-suited for two-QB formats. Either way, an improving quarterback with a soft matchup is worthy of lineup consideration, no matter what the slate looks like. 

The past two weeks, I’ve tried to believe in DangeRuss. First, he had the Ravens, who had been extremely generous to quarterbacks. Wilson scored 6.3 points. The following week was the Browns. The confidence level wasn’t quite as high but still existed. Wilson scored 13.8 points. A more cautious person wouldn’t want to keep shooting that shot. Consider me Dion Waiters. 

The next shot comes against another division opponent in the Cincinnati Bengals. Like the Ravens, Cincy has had an open-door policy for opposing quarterbacks. Only Tampa Bay and Jacksonville have a higher FPA against QBs this year. With Cincinnati being better (though still not great) against the run, Pittsburgh could give Wilson more room to cook this week. And with no snow in the Cincinnati forecast for Sunday, weather should be less of a factor than it was in Cleveland. I want to believe that Wilson is on a Three Strikes policy, but there are still some soft spots in the schedule coming up, so he could appear here yet again. For now, we’ll focus on Week 13 and the prospect of a solid low-end QB1 opportunity. 

J.K. Dobbins is expected to miss some time after leaving Monday night's game early with a knee injury. The Gus Bus is gassed up and ready to roll into Atlanta. The ceiling for Edwards has been low this season because he has clearly played behind Dobbins. If the starter is going to miss time, Edwards is the next man up to see an increase in touches. 

The Falcons defense has been mediocre in just about every sense. It's in the middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed and yards per carry surrendered. The one thing that unit has done well is limit rushing touchdowns, having given up the third-fewest in the league. That might not matter much if Edwards gets the necessary volume. Understand that the ceiling isn’t especially high, but Edwards could be a good flex option for managers in deeper leagues this week. 

It’s been a strange fantasy season for Stevenson. He’s posted multiple outings with more than 19 fantasy points, but it’s hard to say it’s been a good season. The Patriots back hasn’t had 90 scrimmage yards in a game since Week 5. Last week, he produced a season-low 13 total yards and failed to catch either of his targets. Through it all, he’s far and away the team leader in backfield snaps. If you think Antonio Gibson is closing the gap, you’re bound to be disappointed. 

If there’s ever a week for Stevenson to get right, it’s this week against the Colts. Indy has conceded the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs this season. This defense was a shot in the arm for the recently struggling Tony Pollard, who topped 100 yards on the ground for just the second time this season. A triple-digit outing from Stevenson would be nice but doesn’t feel like it’s in the cards. If the fourth-year back can touch 90 scrimmage yards and find the end zone, he’ll justify an RB2 start in Week 13. 

The Texans offense hasn’t been the juggernaut we thought it might be entering 2024. C.J. Stroud has been one of fantasy’s bigger disappointments, but he’s still done enough to support two receivers at a time. The bad news is that we debated three wideouts before the season. The good news is that it feels like we’ve rarely had all three available at the same time. While fantasy managers would prefer that Stefon Diggs is healthy, his season-ending injury has removed some of the guesswork from the Texans' wide receiver equation. It’s back to being the Nico Collins-Tank Dell Show as it was in 2023.  

That makes Dell a solid start against the Jaguars this week. Jacksonville trails only Baltimore when it comes to being a favorable start for fantasy wideouts. The Jags have allowed the fourth-most receptions and second-most yards to the position. The biggest concern could be that Houston leans on Joe Mixon against Jacksonville’s porous run defense – similar to the Week 11 win over Dallas. But the conditions for a big passing game are favorable enough that Dell should slide into lineups as a WR3 at worst in Week 13.

Last week, I wrote that Harrison had a chance to score big against the Seahawks. Swing and a miss. The Cardinals found out the hard way that Mike Macdonald’s defense is finding its groove in Seattle. Kyler Murray threw for 285 yards, nearly half of which went to Trey McBride. It was slim pickings for everyone else with a redbird on their helmet. Harrison failed to crack 50 yards for the sixth time this season. But there are silver linings. The rookie trailed only McBride in targets in Week 12. He’s had at least five targets in all but two games this year. 

Now the Cardinals are getting a trip to the Twin Cities for a date with the Vikings. Minnesota continues to be pliable to opposing passing games. Last week, Caleb Williams posted one of his better games of the season with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet all benefiting. With the Vikings run defense shutting down the opposition, Arizona’s best bet might be to put the game in Murray’s hands. And for Murray to spread the ball around to his pass-catching playmakers. Harrison’s range of outcomes is wide, but the arrow is pointing up for the rookie in Week 13. 

Week 12 was one to forget for Johnston. His production had been improving throughout the season and the eyes of the fantasy world were turning in his direction. Then he put together a miserable performance on Monday Night Football. Five targets, no catches and some horrific drops in big situations -– all of it made more glaring because it came in a prime-time island game. It was reminiscent of Johnston’s rookie year when many rushed to proclaim him a bust. 

It would be easy to write the second-year receiver off after a bad night. But he has shown growth this season in Greg Roman’s offense. I’m choosing to believe last week was a speed bump in an otherwise promising campaign. He’s been targeted at least five times in six games this year. Now he faces a Falcons defense that has been the fourth best matchup for wideouts in 2024. Atlanta has surrendered the fifth-most catches and third-most receiving yards to the position. This is a chance for Johnston to shake off the blues and restore the faith fantasy managers were building in him.

The case for Pat Freiermuth in 2024 mirrored the case for George Pickens . The prospect of Russell Wilson as the starter was going to elevate all the Steelers’ pass-catchers. That dream was put on hold with Justin Fields under center to begin the season. While Wilson’s insertion into the lineup has helped Pickens, it hasn’t consistently done the same for Freiermuth. Week 12, however, was encouraging. Freiermuth caught all four of his targets for a season-high 59 yards. It was just the third time all year that he eclipsed 50 receiving yards in a game. 

Here's to believing that Freiermuth can replicate -- or even improve upon -- last week’s performance. The Bengals have been a boon to opposing tight ends in fantasy this year. Only the Ravens and Chiefs have allowed more receiving yards to the position. Only three teams have allowed more receptions. Calvin Austin's big game in Week 12 was fun to watch but the Steelers still don’t have a solid second option in the passing game after Pickens. Freiermuth’s target share won’t be overwhelming, but if he maintains his solid yards per catch average, he presents as a solid streaming option in Week 13. 

You are forgiven if you haven’t noticed that Henry is a top 10 fantasy tight end this year. Admittedly, the bar is low for such things. Through 12 weeks, Henry has just 51 receptions, 535 yards and one touchdown. Those first two totals are good enough to lead the Patriots. Henry has been targeted at least six times in five of his last six games and has paced New England in targets in five games this year. The adage about tight ends being a young quarterback’s best friend has a bit of questionable track record, but looks spot on in Henry's case.  

Regardless of that maxim’s veracity, the Colts are a tantalizing enough matchup that Henry deserves plenty of lineup consideration. Only the Ravens and Chiefs have surrendered more receptions to the position. Only three other teams (Panthers, Bengals, Raiders) have given up more receiving touchdowns. New England’s offense doesn’t offer a high passing volume, but with more than 20 percent of the targets going Henry’s way, it might not matter a whole lot. The week-to-week variance has been wide, but signs point to things trending more toward Henry’s ceiling on Sunday. 

We tried this last week, and it was disappointing, to say the least. The Commanders couldn’t solve a previously hapless Cowboys offense. Washington managed just one sack and one takeaway to finish the week with a measly two fantasy points. Not exactly the bonanza we were hoping for. Alas, we persist. 

This week, Washington welcomes the Tennessee Titans to Landover. Even when he’s played well, Will Levis has been a fount of fantasy points for opposing defenses. In Week 12, he played Fantasy Claus to the Texans. Houston notched eight sacks and forced three turnovers, including a pick-six on their way to 19 fantasy points. All we’re asking is for Will Levis to be the most Will Levis version of himself in Week 13. Fantasy managers streaming the Commanders would all be very thankful.