Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of NFL.com fantasy point projections each week.
As always, check out our NFL Fantasy rankings for more!
HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 15.2
Michelle: It hasn’t always been pretty, but Daniel Jones has been a solid fantasy producer this season. He has scored at least 18 fantasy points in three of the last four weeks. Despite star rookie receiver Malik Nabers being sidelined by a concussion last week, Jones still put up a season-high 22 fantasy points against the Seahawks. Nabers will be out again this week -- but Jones should still thrive in a juicy matchup against the Bengals.
Over the last three weeks, the Bengals have allowed three opposing starting quarterbacks to score at least 15.2 points, with Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels each putting up 28-plus points against them. The Bengals are tied for third in passing touchdowns allowed (10) in the NFL this season, while Jones has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.7
Michelle: The Bears offense has found its groove in a large part because D’Andre Swift has stepped up his game. Over the last two weeks, Swift has recorded 285 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns while scoring 49.5 total fantasy points. His stretch of success should continue this weekend in London in a great matchup against the Jaguars, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position in 2024.
Over the first five weeks of the season, the Jaguars have allowed five running backs to score 13-plus fantasy points against them. Even Colts backup RB Trey Sermon scored 18.7 fantasy points against them last week.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.3
Michelle: Tank Dell has yet to score more than 11.2 points in a game this season, but with Nico Collins now on IR, his time is coming. Dell has played four games in 2024, and in those games, he ran just eight fewer routes than teammate Stefon Diggs. Dell and C.J. Stroud haven’t been able to regularly connect this season, but we have evidence that this duo can shine when given the chance. Last season as a rookie, Dell registered seven-plus targets in six games -- and he scored at least 17 fantasy points in each of those contests.
The Patriots have allowed at least one wide receiver to hit 12-plus fantasy points in each game this season while allowing multiple wide receivers to score at least 13 points in two of five games.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.4
Matt: Since Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense really came alive in Week 3, Terry McLaurin has been a fantasy stud, scoring a pair of touchdowns while averaging eight targets, five catches, 88 yards and 17.2 fantasy points per game. He’s the WR12 in that span, with a single-game low of exactly 13.4 points, and he is the unquestioned No. 1 target for the league’s hottest quarterback.
On Sunday, Scary Terry draws a matchup with the Ravens, who rank 26th in NFL Pro’s pass defense efficiency and have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wideouts this season. In a contest that figures to have plenty of fireworks, McLaurin is arguably a top-15 receiver and should crush this projection.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.6
Matt: At just 61 percent rostered on NFL.com, Robinson is very nearly a must-add and must-play this week against the Bengals, especially with Malik Nabers out on Sunday. Here is the list of players who had more targets than Robinson heading into Week 6: Garrett Wilson, Nabers, end of list. Admittedly, Robinson’s 1.4 fantasy points per target -- which ranks 101st among wide receivers -- is discouraging. But the volume makes up for the inefficiency to a degree rarely seen in our game.
Meanwhile, the Bengals defense has been an unmitigated disaster this season and ranks 29th in NFL Pro’s defensive passing efficiency. This matchup has the makings of Bengals-Panthers 2.0 -- a Week 4 contest in which both Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette had 10-plus targets and 19-plus fantasy points. Play Robinson if you’ve got him, and go get him if you don’t.
PROJECTED POINTS: 8.8
Matt: Last week, I had Tucker Kraft here, and he scored 24.8 fantasy points to finish as the TE1 on the week. I’m not guaranteeing that for Pitts, but I think we can start him with measured confidence in Week 6 against the Panthers.
Carolina has the barest imitations of an NFL defense this season; the Panthers have allowed 2.02 fantasy points per target to opposing pass-catchers, ranked second-most in the league heading into Week 6, behind only the Rams. The Falcons offense seemed to find a new groove last Thursday night, and I think that momentum will carry forward for the foreseeable future. Pitts can top this projection with just four catches for 50 yards, but I think he also finds the end zone for the first time since Week 1.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.3
Matt: After four straight weeks of subpar production, Lawrence had a great Week 5, putting up 371 passing yards and two touchdowns (while being on nearly everyone’s fantasy benches). Unfortunately, that performance came in an advantageous matchup with the Colts -- and his opponent in London is anything but that.
The Bears have NFL Pro’s second-ranked passing defense and are allowing just 7.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (fewest in the NFL). I legitimately might project Jaguars kicker Cam Little to outscore Lawrence in fantasy this week. If you were eager to get Lawrence back into your lineup after his strong outing ... don’t. And I’d be hesitant about his receivers as well -- though Brian Thomas Jr. is nearly matchup-proof.
PROJECTED POINTS: 19.7
Michelle: Allen has scored fewer than 15 fantasy points in each of his three games on the road this season -- he is averaging 31.1 fantasy points per game at home and just 10.6 per game on the road in 2024. In Week 6, Allen and the Bills are headed back on the road to face the Jets' extremely tough secondary.
New York is allowing just 7.9 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position in 2024, which ranks second to only the Bears (7.6) for fewest in the NFL. The Jets have not allowed a QB to score more than 11.5 points in a game this season and have not allowed a QB to even hit 10 fantasy points in any of their last seven home games, dating back to last season. Allen scored just 9 points in his last road matchup against the Jets (Week 1, 2023), scoring just one touchdown and throwing three interceptions.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.6
Matt: Two weeks into the season, Dobbins looked like a league-winner. He topped 130 rushing yards and 20 fantasy points in each of his first two outings, and the undefeated Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers were perfectly on script. Since then, the Chargers are 0-2, scoring exactly 10 points in each of their matchups against the stellar defenses of both the Steelers and Chiefs. Dobbins totaled 76 rushing yards in those two losses.
Unfortunately for L.A., the Broncos also have an extremely tough defense. The unit is ranked sixth in defensive rushing efficiency by NFL Pro, with Denver allowing just three rushing touchdowns in five games. Dobbins would need to break off a huge run (or two) or find the end zone to top this projection, and I don’t see either outcome happening against this squad.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.3
Michelle: Because he found the end zone as a receiver in back-to-back games, Dowdle has scored at least 13 fantasy points in each of the last two weeks. However, unless he gets lucky and catches a touchdown in three straight games, I expect a very poor fantasy output from Dowdle this Sunday against the Lions.
Detroit has allowed the fewest scrimmage yards per game (89.5) and fantasy points per game (16.0) to the running back position since the start of the 2023 season. Just six running backs have hit 11.3 fantasy points against the Lions over their last 20 regular-season games. They have not allowed a single running back to score 11.3 points in a game without a rushing touchdown since the start of the 2023 season -- Dowdle has zero rushing touchdowns on the season.