Fantasy sleepers, Week 14: Isaac Guerendo next RB up for 49ers; Three QBs with favorable matchups

Social media is in love with The Jameis Winston Experience, which is an unhinged style of play in which anything can happen. Levis offers a lesser version of that. He was a meme-lord early in the season, with his turnovers leading to a series of amusing images. But a funny thing happened on the way to Internet immortality –- Levis started playing better. The Titans gave up fantasy points to an opposing defense in Week 13. But for the first time in a long time, Levis wasn’t part of the problem. The Tennessee quarterback played a full game without a turnover for just the second time this season and the fourth time in his career. Along the way, he scored 16 fantasy points for the third time in four contests. 

This week, Levis gets the Jaguars. We’ve been picking on the Jags all season long. Why stop now? Yes, they held C.J. Stroud to a lackluster 14.38 points last week. At this point, that feels more like an indictment of the Texans offense than anything to do with the Jaguars. Jacksonville has consistently been one of the most QB-friendly matchups available this year. Nine quarterbacks have had a top-12 finish against the Jags. In a week with six QBs on a bye, Levis could make it 10. 

People who love the law and Darnold fantasy points should watch neither being made. It’s not always pretty watching Darnold, but for the past six weeks, it’s been effective. Darnold has tallied more than 18 fantasy points with multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six games. In fact, he’s scored fewer than 18 points just four times this season. So why does it feel like everyone is so down on him? 

Maybe that will change this week. Early in the year, the Falcons defense was doing a yeoman’s job of slowing down the opposition. That’s changed, perhaps because of an offense that can’t consistently stay on the field. The Falcons have scored fewer than 20 points in four of their last six games while giving up more than 230 passing yards in five of their last six. With the Vikings defense clamping down on opponents, look for Darnold and the offense to get more possessions in Week 14 against the NFL’s 21st-ranked passing defense. He should continue his run as a low-end QB1. 

Big rewards come from big risks, right? What’s a bigger risk than pinning your fantasy playoff hopes on the arm of O’Connell? (By the way, does he get Gardner Minshew’s “Stache” persona?) Lest we forget, AOC posted a pair of 20-point outings late last season. Last week, he posted his first career 300-yard game, went for 19.6 points and nearly toppled the Chiefs in the process.  

This week, he gets the same Bucs defense that has been a fantasy fave target for passing attacks all season long. The same Bucs defense that nearly gave up 300 yards in Bryce Young’s 23-point outing. Tampa has allowed nine top-10 finishers –- including seven 23-point quarterback games. O’Connell is a must in two-QB formats this week with a fringe QB1 ceiling.  

It’s been a small rough patch for Swift. He is seeing his role diminish, as Roschon Johnson takes over the goal-line work, and has scored fewer than 10 points in three of his last four games. In fairness, two of them came in negative matchups against the Vikings and Lions. Swift has been matchup-dependent -- struggling against the good defenses and surging against the bad ones. 

This version of the San Francisco 49ers is a bad run defense. Over the past two weeks, the Niners have surrendered 389 yards on the ground. They also haven’t tackled particularly well, giving up the most yards after contact since Week 10. Swift should find success -– especially if he can find his way into the end zone.  

With Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on injured reserve, Guerendo becomes the new hotness in the 49ers backfield and fantasy waiver wires. After all, the thinking goes, a running back in a Shahanan system is a sound investment. It certainly seemed that way back in Week 8 when Guerendo took over for an injured Mason and scored 19 fantasy points against the Dallas Cowboys. 

This week, Guerendo and the M.A.S.H. unit Niners host a Bears defense that has been running back-friendly recently. Chicago is giving up more than 27.5 points per game to the position over the last month. It's allowed 120-plus rushing yards in five of their last six games. Volume shouldn’t be an issue this week. If the offensive line can get some push, Guerendo could have an RB2-type week. 

Mooney has been putting together a solid WR2 season. Six double-digit weeks. A 31-point game in Week 5 and second on the team only to Drake London in all the big receiving categories. But it’s been a tough couple of weeks for Mooney. Not surprising when you run up on the Broncos and Chargers in consecutive games. It feels like a rebound is on its way. 

The Vikings have been a pass funnel all year. They’ve allowed the fifth-most passing yards and given up the second-most completions to wide receivers this year. The rub is that touchdowns can be hard to come by. A Mooney start implies a level of trust that Kirk Cousins can rebound from his recent slump. If so, Mooney could again be a good WR2 start. 

Our fears that the Chiefs would turn Worthy into a superweapon have gone mostly unrealized. Now with DeAndre Hopkins in the Kingdom and JuJu Smith-Schuster healthy again, Worthy has a battle for targets. The good news is that he’s still on the field quite a bit and looks to be no more than third in the target order.  

The Chargers have been a good defense overall. But they’ve been surprisingly mid against wide receivers. Eleven receivers have gone for more than 70 yards versus L.A., including Worthy, who caught three passes for 73 yards in their Week 4 matchup. With so much attention going to Hopkins and Travis Kelce, Worthy should be able to find some room to operate. 

Before the season, I found myself taking Freiermuth late in drafts. The math was simple. Russell Wilson could support multiple pass catchers. And who was the second option after George Pickens? There was no real answer in the summer. Several months later, there’s still no real answer. But Freiermuth seems to be the leading candidate. Over the past two weeks, he leads the Steelers in receptions and receiving yards, and he's second to Pickens in targets. 

This week, it’s volume over matchup. The Browns have been perfectly OK against fantasy tight ends. Cleveland’s big blemish was getting Taysom Hill’d in Week 11. Freiermuth had a respectable 9.9 points in the Thursday night snow globe game. Hopefully the two teams can have a forecast more amenable to passing games. If so, Freiermuth should again be a stream-worthy option. 

The Saints defense hasn’t been good this year. It ranks in the bottom seven on the ground and through the air. Its scoring defense is 19th. It's slightly better as a fantasy unit -– landing as DST18. So why am I writing about them in this space? 

It’s because of the guys on the other side. The Giants are again rolling the dice with Drew Lock, who had fewer than 200 pass yards in his first start. This is still the NFL’s least potent scoring offense. The Giants have also had multiple giveaways three times in the last five games. To make up for all of that, Big Blue has also given up 10 sacks over the past two weeks. Good times. The Saints have streaming appeal this week. 

Remember seven names ago when I mentioned risk vs. reward before trying to sell you on Aidan O’Connell? OK. Stay with me here. What about the Jaguars? But as a real streaming defense option. Everything about it says it’s a bad idea. Jacksonville is DST30 this year. It has as many negative-point weeks as it does double-digit weeks. 

But what if I told you one of those double-digit weeks came when Jalen Hurts accounted for three total touchdowns? The same week Saquon Barkley had 199 scrimmage yards, two touchdowns and one backwards hurdle. Aah, the vagaries of fantasy DST scoring. And the wonders of Will Levis, who has excelled at providing fantasy points for both offense and defense. Starting the Jags with a playoff spot in the balance is a brave thing and not for everyone. But it just might be crazy enough to work.