This week meant two things: the next round of fantasy playoffs and the season finale of Sons of Anarchy. Oh, and my daughter's birthday. So ... three things. I'll let you decide which are the two most important. So while I'm seeing Frozen for the third time and dining at Benihana, hopefully you're prepping for an exciting Week 14 in fantasy, and my column can help you. Oh, and if you're in a Sons of Anarchy-only fantasy league, then you'll a) never look at a hot dog fork the same way again and b) you want to stay out of Jax' kitchen because there's been a lot of body-dropping there over the years.
4: On a scale of 1-10 how scared I was of the snow affecting my fantasy matchup. Over. Way over. But how scared am I now? I'll put it at about a "2". I was an absolute wreck watching Nick Foles try to navigate his way in the white stuff against the Lions last week. He had negative fantasy points at halftime and I wanted to quit my job, become a monk and live in the mountains where there's no wi-fi. Although, at some point I probably would have gotten bored and started a monk-only fantasy league. (Art and Tony Shaloub would be your first two picks, then we would get to the guys in the brown Obi-Wan outfits.) But Foles rebounded, and plenty of guys who played in the snow had big fantasy games. So deal with it that way: be upset about it, be nervous, but don't adjust your lineup as a result.
Start/Sit: Bernard one to watch
Giovani Bernard has been one of fantasy's top rookies and Michael Fabiano likes him even more in Week 15. More ...
4: Quarterbacks who play on Sunday I'll play ahead of Tom Brady in my fantasy playoffs. Push. The QBs who I'll have ranked ahead of Brady for Week 15 who play on Sunday are: Nick Foles, Matthew Stafford, Drew Brees and Cam Newton. You're worried about the absence of Rob Gronkowski? There's really not that much of a difference between when Brady's had him to throw to and when he hasn't. With Gronk this season Brady's thrown 10 TDs with a passer rating of 90.8. Without Gronk? Brady's tossed 11 touchdowns and his passer rating is slightly lower at 86.4. So Brady's stats are negligible. The explosive Shane Vereen is contributing hugely in the passing game and Julian Edelman has been what they thought Danny Amendola was going to be. The Patriots play Miami, who are middle-of-the-pack against the pass, so that plays into Brady's favor. Also factoring in is that if I'm going to lose in my playoffs, I'll go with the superstar QB who's gotten hot lately over any other pretty good quarterback who's gotten hot lately.
5: On a scale of 1-10, how much I trust Dwayne Bowe to be in my starting lineup. Over. But not way over like “I have to get him back in because it’s 2010 all over again!” Look, the Chiefs have realized that in the evolution of their offense they were going to have to start going to Bowe to stretch defenses. After all, how long can every WR run three-yard patterns and turn around before opposing teams caught wind of their strategy? Bowe’s had a TD in three of his last four games and is comfortably averaging between 50-75 yards a week. The Chiefs still spread the ball around so it’s not like he’s taking over the offense, but he certainly is the most important component of the wide receiving corps. Can you play him as a flex the rest of the way -- @OAK, IND, @SD? I can’t believe I’m saying it, but yes. Wow. It really is 2010 again. To celebrate I’m going to go watch Inception and listen to Ke$ha.
7: Number of players you can play in fantasy against the Rams and Redskins this week. Over. St. Louis hosts New Orleans while Washington visits Atlanta. The Rams have been figured out offensively with Kellen Clemens at the helm (just cover Tavon Austin and don’t let him turn a 5-yard screen into a 75-yard TD), and as a result it’s too much pressure on the defense to keep them in games. You're playing Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham anyway, but this week, you can also safely unload Marques Colston and the Saints D against a team who’s slowly packing it in for 2014. Fully mailing it in and on the bullet train headed for 2014 are the Redskins. They're dealing with controversy involving their owner, head coach and quarterback. And you see how well that's been going for them since it all started. Let’s tick them off: start Matt Ryan, Steven Jackson, Roddy White and Harry Douglas. If you're desperate, you can even start the Falcons defense. Every game the Redskins play the rest of the way has 42-10 potential in it.
10 percent: Chances I’ll stream a defense this week from the waiver wire. Under. Streaming defenses is one of my favorite things to do in the world, however this week it's a tough draw. There aren't many matchups -- even sneaky ones -- that stand out. It's a lot of strength-on-strength or weakness-on-weakness. For instance, can you really say "Boy, I'm excited to start the Bills D against Jacksonville!"? Probably not. This is one of those weeks where you mainly stick with your chosen defense and let the results fall where they may.
10: On a scale of 1-10, how mad I am at Andrew Luck. Over. Raise your hand if, like me, you sat him last week because he had a terrible matchup and instead you played someone with a better one on paper like Ryan Fitzpatrick. While I'm boiling because I'm out of the playoffs in my main league because of this, I will eventually forgive myself before this Sunday. Why? This is a very valuable fantasy lesson to learn, and everyone comes to it in their own time. As long as you do the correct research, and have enough evidence to support your choices, it's easy to live with the outcome. Had I just said "Luck stinks. I'm going to start someone else," then I'm not doing a thorough job and I'm making emotional decisions. But Luck had been terrible since Reggie Wayne's injury with no signs he was coming out of it. The Colts were on the road against one of the toughest fantasy defenses against QBs in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick had been the number three fantasy quarterback overall for the last month and he had a terrific matchup against a bottom-four pass defense over the same amount of time. That's more than sufficient data to make that call. So what if Luck had his biggest day of the season? There was no information to lead you to that call. Sure, you could have stated "He's my starter so I'm playing him" but then you're still not doing your due diligence, and you're making an emotional decision. If you put enough thought and consideration into your moves, you'll be able to live with the outcomes -- because trust me, the guys who make the emotional calls will get burned on them more often than they're right.
Jason Smith writes fantasy and other pith for nfl.com. You can see him as the host of NFL Fantasy Live that airs Sunday through Friday on NFL Network at 5pmET/2pmPT and also at 1amET/10pmPT. Listen to him on the NFL Fantasy Live podcast available at nfl.com and on itunes. Reach out to him on Google plus or Twitter @howaboutafresca, and listen to his Fantasy Podcast with Michael Fabiano and Elliot Harrison every week on nfl.com. He only asks you never bring up when the Jets play poorly.