By Ted Rossman
HIGH FIVES
As the season reaches the quarter-pole, here’s a look at five surprising starts. In this section, we examine whether these players are likely to remain among the league leaders.
- Osi Umenyiora (DE, NYG): He was held without a sack in the Giants’ first three games, then rocketed to the top of the NFL sack leaderboard with six sacks in Week 4. This is a great time to sell high on Umenyiora. He is being used as a hybrid defensive end/linebacker this season and hasn’t looked very comfortable in the new role, with the obvious exception of his Week 4 outburst that came against an injury-depleted Philadelphia offensive line.
- Darnell Dockett (DT, ARZ): Dockett ranks second in the NFL with 5.5 sacks and has already established a career high in the category. Dockett isn’t as much of a sell-high candidate as Umenyiora because he has been more consistent and is adjusting well to his new role that involves more pass-rushing opportunities. That said, he’s not going to post a 20-sack season, so if you can trade him for solid value, go ahead and do it.
- Anthony Henry (CB, DAL): Henry leads the NFL with four interceptions. He only has 12 tackles this season, well off the pace of his 81 stops last year. That’s a little troublesome, but the real problem is the high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 4. Henry hopes to miss only one game, but these injuries can linger, especially for players like Henry that must rely on speed.
- Thomas Howard (LB, OAK): Howard is tied for second in the NFL with three interceptions. He also has 28 tackles (23 solo). Howard is a good young linebacker who should continue to produce, especially in an Oakland system that is meshing well on the defensive side of the ball.
- Marlin Jackson (S, IND): Jackson leads the NFL with 40 tackles (31 solo). The Colts don’t have a great defense, but they’re good enough that their starting free safety shouldn’t be the leading tackler in the NFL. Add the fact that Jackson is a first-time starter and this is a good time to dangle him as trade bait.
TREND WATCH
Here, we look at trends and matchups savvy owners can exploit in the upcoming week.
- Drew Brees has thrown seven interceptions in three games. New Orleans had a bye in Week 4, but it’s unlikely that all of the Saints’ problems have been corrected. The Carolina secondary is a good play this week, led by S Chris Harris and CB Chris Gamble.
- St. Louis is winless and has turned the ball over nine times in four games. In the "bad goes to worse" category, the Rams, already without All-Pro T Orlando Pace, probably will be without starting running back Steven Jackson this week, and No. 2 receiver Isaac Bruce could be out as well. That’s good news for the Arizona defense, led by S Adrian Wilson, DT Darnell Dockett and LB Karlos Dansby.
- Detroit has turned the ball over 12 times in four games and has been sacked a league-high 21 times. On Sunday, the Lions face a Redskins team that has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Look for big games from S Sean Taylor and LB London Fletcher-Baker.
- Before you get too excited about Baltimore’s Week 5 matchup with the 49ers, consider that San Francisco quarterback Trent Dilfer is a turnover-averse veteran, and that the Ravens will fly across the country for the game. Don’t bench your Baltimore studs, but think twice about deploying mid-tier defenders.
- It’s not surprising that Indianapolis and New England are tied for the fewest sacks allowed in the NFL with three apiece. It is surprising that the next tier of tough-to-sack teams includes Arizona (four) and Cincinnati (five). Looking for sacks in Week 5? Try Washington (vs. Detroit, the league’s easiest team to sack), Tennessee (vs. Atlanta, third-easiest) and Green Bay (vs. Chicago, fourth-easiest). The Eagles have been sacked the second-most times in the NFL this year, but they have a Week 5 bye.
- Wondering who is toughest to intercept? Jacksonville and Tampa Bay have yet to throw a pick in 2007. Downgrade the Kansas City and Indianapolis secondaries, respectively, in Week 5. The easiest to pick off? Chicago (at Green Bay), Miami (at Houston) and New Orleans (vs. Carolina).
- Slippery fingers, anyone? Baltimore and Detroit lead the league with six fumbles lost, making the 49ers and Redskins, respectively, good bets for fumble recoveries in Week 5. The Jets (at New York Giants) haven’t lost a fumble yet in 2007, while Washington (vs. Detroit), Indianapolis (vs. Tampa Bay) and Dallas (at Buffalo) have only lost one fumble apiece.
WHITHER THE WEATHER
Because bad weather usually means fewer points and more turnovers, you need to know where IDPs should benefit from the elements. Here are some sites where the weather could be a significant factor. Keep in mind that the forecasts can change leading up to game day.
Summer sun is quickly turning into autumn wind and rain, which means Week 5 could offer the worst weather of the young season. Rain showers are projected to affect four games: Jets at Giants, Jaguars at Chiefs, Bears at Packers and Cowboys at Bills. It might be more difficult than usual to hold onto the ball in those four locations.
For more information, please visit Rotowire.com.