What has been the fastest way to turn around a team's woebegone fortunes the past few years? Acquiring the right quarterback, mainly through the draft.
Lots of teams need them, and there are plenty to be had but only a few are considered to be immediate difference makers -- and even that's up for deliberation.
Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, Auburn's Cam Newton and Arkansas' Ryan Mallett are the probable first-rounders, with Gabbert and Newton seemingly being the only sure things.
While Newton has deservedly drawn most of the attention, because he won the BCS national championship, the Heisman Trophy, and he's been the most visible in the media, Gabbert is viewed by most personnel people as more ready to make an impact. There's no buzz now -- largely because he didn't throw at the NFL Scouting Combine -- but there will be plenty after his pro day on March 17.
The dilemma for teams at the top of the draft is whether to gamble on a quarterback (you miss, it could be a franchise changer, but the same could be said if you hit) or play it safe with one of the dynamic defensive linemen in this D-line heavy draft.
Based on conversations I had with some people at the combine, and considering team needs, here's my first crack at a mock draft. We have a long way to the real deal in April, but with free agency on hold because of uncertain labor talks, more teams could be drafting for need.
- Pick No.
1
!CAR
BLAINE GABBERT
QB
Missouri
When all the pre-draft workouts and interviews are done, Gabbert emerges as the quarterback the Panthers and coach Ron Rivera opt to build around. - Pick No.
2
!DEN
DA'QUAN BOWERS
DE
Clemson
The Broncos badly need defensive tackles in their switch to a 4-3, but it's hard not to hand Elvis Dumervil this compliment as an edge rusher. - Pick No.
3
!BUF
MARCELL DAREUS
DT
Alabama
The Bills could move on Auburn QB Cam Newton here, but the versatile D-lineman can help ease some of Buffalo's problems up front. - Pick No.
4
!CIN
NICK FAIRLEY
DT
Auburn
Carson Palmer's threat to retire puts them in need of a QB, but Fairley is the type of playmaker the Bengals need and want in their front seven. - Pick No.
5
!ARI
VON MILLER
OLB
Texas A&M
Again, a quarterback is needed but with Max Hall and John Skelton, adding one in the draft won't be the way they go. Miller is a must. - Pick No.
6
!CLE
A.J. GREEN
WR
Georgia
The Browns can go a lot of different ways, but Green is the type of playmaker that can make Colt McCoy better and open up the offense. - Pick No.
7
!SF
PATRICK PETERSON
CB
LSU
It will be Christmas for the 49ers if the best player in the draft falls this far. He cures two needs: skilled cover DB and returner. - Pick No.
8
!TEN
ROBERT QUINN
DE
North Carolina
The best outside linebacker is off the board so the next best thing is Quinn, an explosive player who can get to the quarterback. - Pick No.
9
!DAL
ANTHONY CASTONZO
OT
Boston College
The Cowboys could go CB with Prince Amukamara here, but Dallas was at its best when its O-line dominated. It's time to address that area. - Pick No.
10
!WAS
ALDON SMITH
OLB
Missouri
Mike Shanahan might not want to develop Cam Newton at quarterback. More 3-4 personnel is needed on defense. Smith bolsters Brian Orakpo. - Pick No.
11
!HOU
PRINCE AMUKAMARA
CB
Nebraska
They could be eyeballing Nnamdi Asomugha, but with the draft possibly coming before free agency, they can't risk missing on the second best corner in the draft. - Pick No.
12
!MIN
CAM NEWTON
QB
Auburn
He's too good to pass for this QB-needy team, and OC Bill Musgrave can develop quarterbacks. Vikes will also acquire a vet in case Newton's not ready. - Pick No.
13
!DET
GABE CARIMI
OT
Wisconsin
They could opt for DEs J.J Watt or Cameron Jordan or OLB Justin Houston, but Carimi might be too tempting to bypass. - Pick No.
14
!STL
JULIO JONES
WR
Alabama
They need OLB and safety help in a bad way, but they need WR help in a worse way. Jones could be Sam Bradford's prime target for years. - Pick No.
15
!MIA
MARK INGRAM
RB
Alabama
This could be the least expensive and most productive way to address a huge void. QB Ryan Mallett could be a sleeper here. - Pick No.
16
!JAC
ADRIAN CLAYBORN
DE
Iowa
Jacksonville is still in search of front-four help and Clayborn is powerful and versatile. - Pick No.
17
!NE
J.J. WATT
DE
Wisconsin
If Watt makes it this far, Bill Belichick won't trade this pick to move back in the draft. - Pick No.
18
!SD
CAMERON JORDAN
DE
Cal
An ideal 3-4 defensive end who can set and hold an edge. Athletic enough to be used in coverage in zone-blitz schemes. - Pick No.
19
!NYG
MIKE POUNCEY
C/G
Florida
The Giants have to begin to replenish the interior of their offensive line, and Pouncey could be as good as his twin, Maurkice. - Pick No.
20
!TB
AKEEM AYERS
OLB
UCLA
Bucs need a rusher, and Ayers should run a better 40 at his pro day than he did at the combine to alleviate concerns about his speed. - Pick No.
21
!KC
NATE SOLDER
OL
Colorado
Solder has a nasty temperament and his potential is too promising to pass up. Could compete to start at either OT spots. - Pick No.
22
!IND
TYRON SMITH
OT
USC
Enough with not investing a high pick in an offensive lineman. Smith is needed to make sure Manning plays at least four more seasons. - Pick No.
23
!PHI
MARTEZ WILSON
LB
Illinois
The athletic Wilson can play outside or inside and the Eagles need someone who can play both. DT Corey Liuget wouldn't be a surprise here. - Pick No.
24
!NO
RYAN KERRIGAN
DE
Purdue
This high-motor havoc-wreaker would flourish under high-energy defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. - Pick No.
25
!SEA
RYAN MALLETT
QB
Arkansas
This might seem like a surprise, but unless a trade for Kevin Kolb materializes, Seahawks select most pro-ready QB in the draft. - Pick No.
26
!BAL
JIMMY SMITH
CB
Colorado
At 6-2 and 210 pounds, Smith is a physical corner who would fit right in, at worst, as a rotational fixture in nickel coverage. - Pick No.
27
!ATL
AARON WILLIAMS
CB
Texas
The Falcons want more size at corner, and Williams provides that. He would offer immediate help at nickel back, which the Falcons need. - Pick No.
28
!NE
DEREK SHERROD
OT
Mississippi State
A perfect slot and fit for Sherrod, an athletic player who can develop in a great environment. - Pick No.
29
!CHI
BRANDON HARRIS
CB
Miami
An OT, DT and DE are needed, but Harris is a solid player who is coachable and loves to compete. - Pick No.
30
!NYJ
JUSTIN HOUSTON
OLB
Georgia
The Jets need a pass rusher, and Houston is built like LaMarr Woodley and is ascending up some draft boards. - Pick No.
31
!PIT
BEN IJALANA
OL
Villanova
Ijalana is raw but was dominant on the FCS level and can play guard or tackle, which is big for a team in need of versatile linemen. - Pick No.
32
!GB
CAM HEYWARD
DE
Ohio State
With the likely loss of Cullen Jenkins, Heyward fills a need and could compete for a starting job.
