With Saints coach Sean Payton suspended for the 2012 season, does Drew Brees still belong among the elite quarterbacks in fantasy football?
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- Michael Fabiano NFL.com Fantasy Writer
Brees moves down one spot
The news of Payton's suspension likely caused a lot of fantasy owners to panic about the value of Brees, wondering whether his value takes a hit without his head coach calling the shots. But let's get serious -- this is Drew Brees, not some mediocre quarterback who has never made a significant fantasy impact. He can probably run this offense in his sleep, in fact, so I'm not going to make a hasty decision and drop him far down my draft board. Remember, OC Pete Carmichael did call some plays last season while Payton was out with a knee injury. With that said, I would rather have Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady at the quarterback position with Brees being third. I also think Brees is still worth a first-round pick -- the only thing that would change my mind is if the Saints drag out contract negotiations and Brees holds out. Stay tuned.
Is Brees' value affected? Yes. Greatly? No. He's still a top-five quarterback, mostly because at this point in his career he's a coach on the field. Even with Payton in the building, Brees picked his favorite plays and was a big part of the game plan. He'll have some of the same offensive staff as well, as Graham and Colston remain in the offense. At this point, I would still grade Brees as the third-best option in fantasy, barring any further developments. Keep in mind, Brees always gives you 16 games, so you're not scrambling for Matt Cassel or Colt McCoy on the waiver wire every week. That said, I do wonder how much Mark Ingram will be involved in the offense, which would impact the entire passing game. I also wonder about the loss of Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks. Both of those circumstances could factor one way or the other. But at this stage of the game, I trust a 12-year veteran like Brees to handle his business and be a top-flight fantasy quarterback.
I was pretty happy when Marques Colston decided to stay with the Saints, instead of tanking his value by signing with a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars. (Seriously, Laurent Robinson, is it worth it?) But now I have to rethink all of the Saints players, including Brees. Yes, it seems like fantasy blasphemy to suggest such a thing, but Brees is going to feel this sting. Not enough to bump him out of the Fantasy Illuminati of quarterbacks. But when you start to put the rankings together, Brees now sits behind Rodgers, Brady, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton. But I would even imagine the fantasy chicken in me would pull the trigger on Tony Romo or Philip Rivers if I had to put up or shut up. (Give me a couple of weeks to think about this, and I might even talk myself into it.) The best-case scenario is Brees rallies the team in one of those "us vs. the world" or "nobody wants to see us win" situations to have an even better season. Though, I'm not sure I'm ready to risk my fantasy season on that.
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- Jason SmithNFL.com Writer
Brees falls down to No. 5
Everything from an organizational standpoint is going to be affected for the Saints with Payton suspended for the season. So to think Brees won't be affected is naive. And also, is he really going to throw for more than 5,000 yards again? Now, that being said, he is Drew Brees, and this is an offense that has hummed along for years. If any team is built to withstand something like this from a production perspective, it's New Orleans. The lowest I can see Brees dropping is to the No. 5 overall quarterback in fantasy football behind Brady, Rodgers, Stafford and Newton. That means Brees is still a first-rounder in my book, and I would still take him ahead of Peyton Manning, Romo, Michael Vick and Rivers.
It's not just the loss of Payton, but everything that's happened to this team from the moment they were bounced by the 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round playoff game. They've managed to upset the most important player in the history of the franchise (Brees), thanks to inexplicable behavior in contract negotiations. While Robert Meachem isn't too hard to replace, Nicks will not be on the offensive line. What's more, the team is now not selecting until Round 3 of the 2012 NFL Draft after being docked a pair of second-round picks and having traded away their first-round pick for Mark Ingram. You'll have endless media coverage regarding the bounty suspensions and defensive players will be watched like hawks -- all of that doesn't even involve the absence of arguably the league's best play caller (Payton) on the sidelines. I will not spend a first-round pick on Brees, and I'll even think about passing on him in Round 2 if Newton or Stafford are on the board.