Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. Today's installment covers:
But first, a look at the best division race in football ...
As we head toward the home stretch of the 2024 NFL regular season, the NFC West is wide open. At 6-4, the Cardinals sit alone at the top, but the 49ers, Rams and Seahawks are all just one game back at 5-5. And with the NFC North and NFC East better positioned to claim the conference's three wild-card bids, the winner of the West could be the only squad from the ultra-competitive division to secure a spot in the postseason tournament. So every remaining game is enormous for this quartet of evenly matched teams.
This Sunday, in particular, offers a marquee slate for the NFC West, with the first-place Cardinals visiting the Seahawks in a huge divisional bout, the 49ers hitting Lambeau Field to take on the Packers, and the Rams hosting the red-hot Eagles on Sunday Night Football.
With all that in mind, it's the perfect time to explore the pecking order in this four-team race. Below, I've listed the biggest reason to believe each team can take the NFC West title, along with the biggest source of doubt, with the member squads arranged according to the likelihood that they'll end up as division champs. Here are my rankings, 1 to 4.
Biggest reason the Seahawks WILL win the division: Ryan Grubb has the offensive firepower to knock off any opponent on the schedule. The first-year coordinator's offense is loaded with perimeter playmakers and dynamic runners who can score from anywhere on the field on creative plays designed to keep defenders guessing. Geno Smith is the perfect point guard to do the job as a pinpoint passer with superb distribution skills. If the Pro Bowler continues to excel as an efficient passer in an offense that creates and exploits one-on-one matchups on the perimeter, the Seahawks can use the aerial attack to balance out a ground-and-pound run game that enables them to control the clock. With an offense that can play keep-away or engage in shootouts, the Seahawks are a tough matchup for opponents lacking elite defensive personnel.
Biggest reason the Seahawks WON'T win the division: The defense could prevent this team from realizing its potential. With a leaky run defense (138.6 rush yards per game, ranking 27th) standing out as a major concern, the Seahawks cannot control the game or force opponents into one-dimensional game plans that enable them to create turnovers or splash plays in crucial moments. Though the defense has forced three-and-outs on 27.6 percent of drives -- the third-highest in the league, per NFL Research -- the lackluster rush D has enabled opponents to control the ball for 32:06 minutes of action. Considering how extended possessions expose Seattle's defensive flaws while keeping Geno and Co. on the sidelines, the defense MUST improve for the 12s to celebrate a division title in January.
Biggest reason the Cardinals WILL win the division: Kyler Murray is taking the next step. Despite surging to the top of the division behind a complementary approach that ties the offense, defense and special teams together, the Cardinals' title hopes hinge on the play of their star quarterback. With his electric skills as a dual-threat playmaker, Kyler can single-handedly tip the scales in Arizona's favor. As a runner and passer with big-play potential, the former No. 1 overall pick can score from anywhere on the field on scripted or improvised plays. With a nice supporting cast around him featuring potent playmakers at running back (James Conner), wideout (Marvin Harrison Jr.) and tight end (Trey McBride), the Cardinals can lean on their franchise player to take over the game against anyone in a shootout down the stretch. In a star-driven league where the best players determine which teams win title tilts, Arizona's QB1 could be the difference in securing a banner this season.
Biggest reason the Cardinals WON'T win the division: The defense lacks true difference makers. The league's hardest-playing team has surprised opponents with its energy, enthusiasm and execution, but the Cardinals don't overwhelm foes with their talent, particularly on defense. Though they have overcome their shortcomings with hustle and communication, the league's top teams will create and exploit mismatches on the perimeter against inferior foes. Arizona's defensive backfield has improved this season, but the unit must hold up against some of the league's top receivers (DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua) down the stretch to win the crown. Without a consistent pass rush to quicken the opposing quarterback's clock, the pressure is on Sean Murphy-Bunting, Starling Thomas V, Garrett Williams, Jalen Thompson, Budda Baker and others to hold up under a barrage of throws from opponents intent on attacking the Cardinals' biggest weakness.
Biggest reason the Rams WILL win the division: Sean McVay knows how to win games in many ways. Whether relying on the aerial attack, rush offense or a complementary approach that shrinks the game to protect the defense, the Super Bowl-winning coach has a gift for crafting winning game plans in big games. Moreover, he understands how to manage a game to put his stars in prime position to make game-winning plays in crucial moments. McVay's an experienced big-game strategist with enough blue-chip players (Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kobie Turner and Jared Verse) to do the job. With a balanced attack that can engage in a shootout or grind it out to win games, the Rams can rely on their offense to set the table for the defense to close out games in must-win battles with the division title on the line.
Biggest reason the Rams WON'T win the division: Youth and inexperience on defense could catch up with Los Angeles down the stretch. Despite the Rams' immense talent and potential on D, a lack of reps in high-pressure environments could lead to costly mistakes and miscues in key moments. Though L.A. emerged as a playoff team in 2023 with several young players in the rotation, that team was one-and-one. And it is hard to predict how the newbies will fare in a single-elimination tournament. Moreover, the reliance on so many young defenders (eight starters with three years or fewer experience) makes it hard to expect the Rams to flourish down the stretch against the heavyweights (Eagles and Bills) and division rivals remaining on the schedule.
Biggest reason the 49ers WILL win the division: A loaded roster that can beat anyone when its firing on all cylinders. The 49ers' raw talent can overwhelm opponents unable to deal with their collection of blue-chip players at marquee positions. When everyone's healthy, the nucleus of Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner can dominate most foes, which makes it hard to count the 49ers out in win-or-go-home battles down the stretch. The Niners are too good to be counted out, given their talent and toughness. Well, at least when all the stars are available ...
Biggest reason the 49ers WON'T win the division: The Super Bowl hangover is real. San Francisco has been rocked by injuries this season. In fact, right before publishing, Purdy and Bosa were ruled out of this Sunday's game at Green Bay. Brutal. And even when healthy, the 49ers' best players just haven't excelled like in years past. San Francisco's inconsistent offense and underachieving defense have kept the back-to-back division champs from seizing control of the West in 2024. Perhaps the team can get healthy down the stretch, but the clock is ticking on Kyle Shanahan to create a winning formula with a team that is seemingly reeling from an overtime loss in this past February's Lombardi game. This just seems like one of those star-crossed seasons where nothing can go right, which is unfortunate, given how much promise this roster appeared to have back in August.
Fangio's old-school style fueling Philly
Don't look now, but Vic Fangio is working his magic again.
The experienced coaching hand has piloted 10 prior defenses to top-10 finishes in yards allowed -- and in his 38th NFL season, he's on track to hit that mark an 11th time with his current crew, the top-ranked Eagles D. In his first campaign with Philadelphia, Fangio has helped make life miserable for opponents with a dynamic scheme that enables defenders to play aggressively with a "see ball, get ball" mentality.
Sure, it would have been fair to expect some improvement under Fangio from a team that sat at No. 26 in yards allowed last season, but the grizzled defensive architect has really taken things to another level. He's found a way to mold rookies, youthful free agents (eight starters have four or fewer years of experience) and a few veteran holdovers into a suffocating unit that forces foes to earn every yard. Philly has held six straight opponents to 280 yards or fewer, winning each contest in impressive fashion.
Then there is the recent surge in takeaways. The Eagles have forced 11 turnovers over the last four games, the most in the NFL since Week 8, per NFL Research. Considering the unit forced just two turnovers in Weeks 1-7 (the fewest in the NFL during that span), the light has undoubtedly come on for a defense loaded with young talent.
From a schematic standpoint, Fangio has always been one of the best at drawing up the Xs and Os to limit big plays while forcing opponents to execute at a high level. The defensive play-caller has traditionally featured two high safeties and light boxes to take away the deep ball and force opponents to drive the field utilizing short passes or a series of "grind it out" runs. Given that most teams struggle to string together 10 or more positive plays without a penalty or turnover disrupting the drive, Fangio's approach tests the patience and discipline of quarterbacks and offensive coordinators over 60 minutes.
While the Eagles have featured some of the veteran's traditional schemes, he has tweaked his plan to showcase the superior talent at his disposal. General manager Howie Roseman has provided Fangio with a number of blue-chip defenders, and Fangio has moved the chess pieces around differently to create chaos for opponents. For instance, he's employing more man coverage with the Eagles' ultra-athletic secondary, setting rookie standouts Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean up to blanket wideouts. The youngsters' athleticism and explosiveness shows up in their one-on-one matchups with speedsters, who are unable to break free from their sticky coverage tactics.
Moreover, veteran Reed Blankenship and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson's excellent communication skills and intelligence have bolstered the duo's overall awareness. The defensive quarterback (Blankenship) and designated ballhawk (Gardner-Johnson) keep the secondary in sync behind a disruptive defensive front sparked by Jalen Carter's emergence as a future All-Pro defensive tackle. The second-year pro is a wrecking ball at the point of attack, utilizing his exceptional strength, power and explosiveness to blow through double teams with ease. Carter's extraordinary first-step quickness and heavy hands enable him to elude or overpower blockers on the way to the ball-carrier or quarterback. In addition, the former first-rounder's nastiness sets the tone for a defense that is playing with more attitude.
Then there is Zack Baun, one of the aforementioned youthful free agents. Baun never started more than six games in any of his four seasons in New Orleans and was brought in by Roseman as a supplemental piece, but Fangio championed his potential as an inside linebacker. Now Baun leads the team in tackles (101) and forced fumbles (three) and ranks third in defensive snaps.
I suspect the edginess we see from the Eagles stems from the old-school principles established and demanded by Fangio. He is known to be firm but fair, a coach who does not discriminate when holding players accountable. He will play the best player, regardless of status or pay level, and demands everyone sticks to the script to ensure the 11 players on the field remain on the same page. Fangio's methods appear to have resulted in a more disciplined and detailed defense -- which is crucial, because role misalignments and blown assignments often lead a D to give up big plays.
With a collection of young, dynamic players embracing the tough-love approach from a coaching wizard with an adaptable scheme, the Eagles are playing championship-caliber defense in a league where performance on that side of the ball often separates contenders from pretenders.