When evaluating an NFL season, it's best not to attempt to digest the entire meal at once like an overzealous Burmese python. Instead, most coaches appraise their club's performances in smaller chunks.
While the league's move to 17 games in 2021 wiped out a clean quarterly grading system, it still makes sense to take stock in four-week increments, with that season finale hanging chad on the end.
Entering Week 4, we've hit our fork-in-the-road week for many NFL clubs. Who will continue their hot streak? Can 0-3 clubs dig themselves out of an ignominious hole? Have early performances been fool's gold or signs of things that will continue? How will coaches assess their teams after this week's action?
It's far too early to make season-long declarative statements. The NFL calendar is too fraught with rolling hills and unforeseeable pitfalls. Still, we're capable of evaluating what we've seen thus far entering the final weekend of September.
We march forward into this week's game of Fact or Fiction, fearing not the proverbial pitchforks and social media overreactions to one man's opinion. We walk undaunted into the faceless night, knowing that though we might fall nose-first into a thorny prediction gone awry, we did not quiver in confronting the gauntlet.
Onward!
1) Josh Allen is the best player in the NFL right now.
Three weeks into the 2024 campaign, this statement is absolutely a fact. The 11 players who voted Allen the most "overrated" quarterback in the NFL during the offseason must be feeling pretty good about that take.
Allen has tortured his opponents. The QB's 0.59 EPA per dropback is tied for the best performance through three weeks since 2016, per Next Gen Stats (Tua Tagovailoa had the same mark at this juncture in 2023).
Allen's won on early downs. He's won on late downs. He's dropped deep daggers. He's picked apart defenses with darts. He's weaved through defenses with his legs. He's accounted for nine touchdowns through three games, most in the NFL (seven passing, two rushing).
During the offseason, the Bills revamped their roster, parting ways with Allen's top two targets, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. All the moves pointed to Allen shouldering a more significant load. He'd be asked to do what Kansas City requested from Patrick Mahomes for several seasons: More with less.
Allen hasn't only met the challenge, he's thrived.
In previous years, the biggest knock on Allen was the turnovers. It was a legitimate concern, with 75 giveaways since 2020. Allen opened the season with a fumble, likely providing detractors with a laughable moment. Since then? A goose egg in the turnover column. The interception machine has produced exactly zero INTs through the first three weeks for the first time in his career. Oh, there have been times you can see the gears turning as he contemplates a dangerous throw, but thus far, discretion has won out. He's negated the bad turnovers without completely losing the big plays. Allen's six Big Time Throws sit second behind only Kyler Murray (eight), per Pro Football Focus.
Allen's leveled up his game, and the Bills’ pick-your-poison offense suits him. He's not force-feeding anyone but rather letting Joe Brady's offense dictate where the ball goes. In a league where offenses are struggling out of the gate, Buffalo has put up 30-plus points in each contest. No one is playing on Allen's level right now.
2) The Cincinnati Bengals are the most disappointing 0-3 team.
Having Joe Burrow healthy for a full training camp suggested the Bengals might eschew the early season struggles that have plagued them under Zac Taylor. Not so. Whether it was Tee Higgins' injury, Ja'Marr Chase's post-hold-in slow start, or the changes on defense, Cincinnati once again crawled out of the gate.
If you want to consider the Super Bowl-contending Bengals the most disappointing team to open the season, you'll have a great case. But for me, this statement is fiction.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are off to the most discouraging start. It's not just that Doug Pederson's squad has gotten off to an anemic beginning. It's how they've performed that is genuinely a concern.
The Jags are getting destroyed in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Pressure has been in Trevor Lawrence's face incessantly -- Monday night in Buffalo, 11 different Bills players generated at least one pressure, with five earning two or more -- and the defensive line has been blown off the ball. The team's 24.8% QB pressure rate through three weeks ranks 31st, and its five quick pressures rank dead last, per Next Gen Stats.
If, as the saying goes, NFL games are won in the trenches, it's no wonder the Jags are epically failing.
Even when he's not getting destroyed in the pocket, Lawrence has completed just 52.8% of his passes, the second-lowest mark in the league among QBs with at least 50 attempts this season. Lawrence's troubles connecting with his targets in the short game have a cascading effect. The Jags can't sustain drives and bog down in the red zone. Disaster ensues.
The Jags are a mess in a season in which their owner, Shad Khan, declared that he expects to win now. The Jags shelled out cash this offseason, not just with Lawrence's new contract, but with the fourth-highest spending in the league in 2024. So far, it's bought them zilch.
Given the high expectations from ownership on down, the early season toilet swirl makes the Jags the most disappointing club in my book.
3) Jayden Daniels is the 2024 version of 2023 C.J. Stroud.
Is it fair to compare a rookie quarterback after three starts to one of the most epic rookie seasons we've ever seen? No. Not particularly. Yet, here we are.
If we're going to go there, let's go there. For me, this is a fact.
It's not just that Daniels has shown a Stroud-like ability to raise the play of everyone around him, including a still-questionable offensive line. It's not that he drops dimes and avoids turnovers like Stroud. It's the calmness. In the biggest moments, there is no flinching. Ice, meet veins. It's an unteachable quality.
Whether it was the game-winning drive in the final seconds of a Week 2 victory over the Giants or the gorgeous deep shot to Terry McLaurin in Week 3, Daniels has elevated his game in the crucible of the big moments, where many rookies crumble. Reminder: Stroud's club lost his first two starts before galloping to a playoff spot. Daniels is already ahead of that pace.
I'm not going to get into the comparison with the rest of the 2024 draft class, not after three weeks. Each man plays his own game. Daniels shining has nothing to do with another's struggles.
Over the last two weeks, Daniels' Commanders didn't punt a single time. They finished every single drive with a score or a kneel. Think about all the punt-offs we witness each week. Then consider a rookie leading his team to 14 consecutive scoring drives, not including the kneel-downs. It's insanity.
The consistency with which the Commanders have moved the ball speaks to a stellar job from offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, and Daniels’ ability to make the right decision. Over three games, he's already shown development. In Week 1, he ran a bit too much, even for his coach's liking. In Week 2, he found his outlet more often. In Week 3, he splashed deep shots. It's the type of weekly improvement we saw from Stroud last season.
Perhaps a quarterback shining off the bat when he had 55 college starts under his belt shouldn't be surprising. But for an organization that has cycled through so many quarterbacks over the years, let’s hope Daniels -- who takes his share of big hits -- stays healthy.
4) The Steelers are the most dangerous team in the NFL.
The Steelers defense is a terror. T.J. Watt and Co. have lived in the backfield, discombobulating offenses. Pittsburgh has allowed just 26 points through three games, the fewest in the NFL in 2024 and the fewest for a Steelers squad since 2007 (also 26).
They've gobbled up quarterbacks with a front four that brings waves of pressure without extra bodies. The Steelers' 41.3% pressure rate with a four-man rush is second in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats (behind only Houston's 41.9%). The ability to generate pressure with four provides a major boost to a defensive backfield that still has some questions (Pittsburgh has an 81.5% four-man rush rate). It's a menacing front across the board from edge to interior. Even when Alex Highsmith went down with a groin injury last week, the Steelers plugged in Nick Herbig and didn't miss a beat.
The run D has also been excellent, allowing an NFL-best -0.31 EPA per carry. Pittsburgh is the only team that has yet to allow a rush TD.
Having said all that, it's fiction. The Steelers are not the most dangerous team in the NFL.
Can the MOST dangerous team be one that averages 17 points per game? Can the most dangerous club be one whose offensive identity wants to be run-first but whose starting back, Najee Harris, has generated -22 rushing yards over expected, resulting in a 32.7% success rate (32nd out of 41 qualifying RBs)? Would a truly dangerous team have the same number of wins and touchdowns (three)?
I'm a Justin Fields fan, and I believe he can improve the longer he remains in the lineup. But I have trust issues with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Can he develop a consistent plan to take advantage of Fields' talent? I’m skeptical, but weeks will tell in that regard.
We know who the Steelers are under Mike Tomlin. Their formula is akin to a well-worn shirt: Comfortable even as it has missing strands of fabric. Pittsburgh will continue to win games in a manner that will give Yinzers high blood pressure each week. A good team need not be dangerous to make the playoffs, as Pittsburgh has proven time and time again under Tomlin. To make a playoff run, they'll need the offensive light to come on and stay on.
5) The NFC North is the NFL's best division.
This is a fact. The NFC North is the only division with three teams above .500. It's the only division with three teams ranked in the top eight in total DVOA. It's the only division that doesn't have a club with double-digit negative net points.
After drafting Caleb Williams and revamping the weaponry, the 1-2 Chicago Bears haven't lived up to the offseason hype. A faulty offensive line has been their undoing through three weeks. Now, poor starts aren't new under Matt Eberflus. It took Chicago dropping to 0-4 to get frisky last season. If a top-10 defense and an offense with upside as the rookie QB improves is the worst team in the division, we're at least starting with a finished basement.
The 3-0 Minnesota Vikings -- more on them later in this piece -- have come screaming out of the gate under Kevin O'Connell, who has proven that with competent QB play he can stack wins.
Dan Campbell's crew stubbed its toe in Week 2, when the Lions more than doubled the Buccaneers in yardage but went one of seven in the red zone to lose by four points. Still, the Lions could be one Campbell brain fart from being 3-0. Detroit's revamped defense has shown vast improvement. The ability to stuff the run has made opponents one-dimensional, and the secondary has taken a stride forward -- if/when Terrion Arnold figures out how not to get called for pass interference, it'll be even better. After three weeks, Aaron Glenn's D ranks ninth in DVOA. If Jared Goff can shake off his poor start to the season, Detroit has the talent to go on a winning streak.
Perhaps the man who clinches the NFC North as the best division in football: Matt LaFleur. He deserves to be the Coach of the Year front-runner not only for surviving an injury to the Packers starting quarterback Jordan Love but also for stacking two Ws with backup Malik Willis under center.
Willis was lost in Tennessee. His every snap was met with apprehension and dread, earning a 39.0 passer rating in three starts with the Titans. Less than a month after being traded to the Packers, he was punking his former teammates. In two starts in Green Bay, Willis' passer rating is 126.3. Whatever magic flows through LaFleur's veins needs to be bottled and studied. I didn't believe Love’s injury would sink the Packers' season. They're too talented of a group for that. But to look as good as they have the past two weeks with Willis under center was a surprise and a testament to the coaching staff.
At this stage, the NFC North boasts three teams that look like contenders for the division crown.
6) Something is amiss with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.
Mahomes admitted he hasn't played very well. Andy Reid shouldered some of the blame for the QB's struggles, noting, as the play-caller, he needs to get the QB into a better rhythm early in games. Travis Kelce has basically been invisible. The deep game is noticeably absent once again.
Still, the Chiefs are 3-0.
Sorry, I won't get worked up about the back-to-back Super Bowl champions still finding their way in September. I’ll call this one fiction.
I'm not sure anything is actually amiss. It’s just clunky right now.
Defenses are taking away deep shots, forcing Mahomes to dink and dunk his way down the field. Until defenders stop playing off, he'll continue to take the quick gains to Rashee Rice. The four interceptions aren't great, but let's be honest, it's not entirely unusual for Mahomes. He has thrown 12 or more INTs in each of the past three seasons.
The offseason plan to stretch the field took a hit when Hollywood Brown went down with an injury. Xavier Worthy has displayed speed, but he's still green. If Brown had been healthy, I believe the Chiefs would have been far more dangerous stretching the field with speed in the first few weeks.
As for Kelce, who has 69 yards on eight catches, Reid noted that defenses are schematically taking out the star tight end. Three consecutive games with sub-par numbers could be an issue for the 34-year-old, but it should be noted that he had four contests in 2023 below the 30-yard mark. And what happened during the postseason? Yeah, you remember.
The bigger concerns are tied to how they replace the injured Isiah Pacheco's smashmouth style at running back and the questions that persist at left tackle.
Reminder: Tom Brady's dynastic teams used September to determine what worked best. Then, they'd roll through the rest of the schedule. Mahomes' club has earned the same benefit of the doubt that they will figure things out.
7) The Vikings are the best team in the NFC.
I went back and forth on what I believe about the 2024 Minnesota Vikings.
Are they a 3-0 team with the top defense in the NFL under Brian Flores, who confounds the likes of C.J. Stroud into one of the worst days of his NFL career? Are they a dangerous club with the best wide receiver in the game and an offensive mastermind who can draw up open targets like Bob Ross painting forest landscapes?
Are they a mirage, a Minneapolis oasis bound to freeze over once Sam Darnold turns back into a pumpkin at or around Halloween? Will Flores' defense fall off a cliff like it did after attrition hit late last season?
This statement could get me burned in less than two weeks, but right now, yes, I believe it's a fact that the Minnesota Vikings are the best team in the NFC.
The Niners and Lions are banged up something fierce. The Packers have won two games with a backup QB, but the teams they beat have one total victory. The Seahawks haven't played a winning team. I don't yet fully trust Dennis Allen’s Saints. Washington is still growing. The Buccaneers got throttled by Denver at home. And who knows what’s going on with Nick Sirianni’s Eagles?
Meanwhile, Minnesota has rolled early. The Vikings' three victories include a blowout road win (good teams usually trounce bad ones on the road), a W over San Francisco in which the Vikings led by 13 entering the fourth quarter, and a dunking of the AFC South darling Texans.
I trust this coaching staff more than most. We know Kevin O’Connell can dial up a game plan. The Vikings were on their way to the playoffs last season before Kirk Cousins went down and they still kept things interesting for a few more weeks. Flores has mastered the art of getting into the head of the opposing quarterback.
While the focus was on the team’s moves at QB, not enough was made about the offseason additions to Minnesota's defense. Did anyone outside of Houston watch Jonathan Greenard play last year? He was sensational and is at it again with the Vikings. Despite coming off an injury, Andrew Van Ginkel has the where the (bleep) did that guy come from play mastered. Stephon Gilmore has been a stabilizing force in the secondary.
I'm still not sure I trust Darnold when he’s under pressure, but he's done well so far to play within the offense and avoid disasters. My trust in O'Connell outweighs the trepidation regarding the former No. 3 overall pick.
The next three games (at Green Bay, vs. Jets, vs. Lions) could make me look foolish if the bubble bursts. Such is life.