NFL Fantasy 2022 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 11: Wide receivers

Moore has been playing really good ball as of late for the Cardinals. He has seen at least eight targets in four of his last five games, scoring double-digits in each of those games. He has scored between 14.9-23.4 fantasy points in each of his last three games. That shows he brings a safe floor, but also a high ceiling. He also did so without Kyler Murray last week. The one down game he had during this stretch came on a nationally televised Thursday night game, so it may be the one that stands out, but it has shown to be the anomaly of the bunch. There were target concerns if and when Marquise Brown returns, which is nearing, but with Zach Ertz now out for the year, Moore should remain heavily involved in this passing game, especially if Brown is not ready to suit up against the Niners. It also goes under the radar, but San Francisco has allowed the third-most fantasy PPG to receivers in the last month (41.7). Plus, the Cards could be chasing points against that high-powered Niners offense. Just continue to ride the hot hand and start Moore this week.  

Toney finally happened! For those who don’t know, I was very high on Toney coming into the season. And then I waited and waited but he is still on many of my rosters. And next week, he will be in many of my starting lineups. In Week 10, he carried the ball twice for 33 yards and caught four of five targets for 57 yards and a touchdown. He led all Chiefs non-running backs in yards per route ran (3.8), percentage of routes he was targeted on (33%) and YAC per reception (8.8). He lined up in the slot on 14% of his snaps and out wide on 75% of them. Toney has the capability to be a real difference-maker in these final six weeks of the 2022 season. He did so playing the third receiver role this past week for the Chiefs. But every week he is there is another week acclimated with this playbook and in this offense. The Chargers are a tough matchup, but with the Chiefs thin this week at receiver (Mecole Hardman missed last week and JuJu Smith-Schuster is in the concussion protocol), Toney is an upside shot worth taking this week.

Watson exploded in Week 10 with three touchdowns against the Cowboys. He also hauled in four catches for 104 yards, finishing with just under 33 fantasy points. His eight targets gave him a team-high 42% target share and he also posted a 75% air yard share (162 air yards). Watson gives the Packers downfield speed that they have lacked all season. Watson is not going to put up numbers like this every week, but the upside in this offense is very high. He should continue to see downfield targets from Aaron Rodgers, which is never a bad position for a fantasy receiver to be in. He has the potential to be the Packers' version of Gabe Davis. He is a home run hitter who some weeks will strike out and others will hit big. But if he is able to see more consistent volume, he could have a safer floor. Watson is a player you could get off the waiver wire at the start of the week and should have in your starting lineup come Thursday. He faces the Titans, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season (38.5). The Titans have also particularly struggled against deep passes to receivers. On the season, they have allowed 18 pass completions of 20-plus air yards to a receiver, as well as 748 yards -- both are the most in the NFL. No other team has allowed over 600 yards on those passes. The Titans allowed five touchdowns to receivers on deep passes, the second-most in the NFL. Quarterbacks have a 142.1 passer rating when throwing deep passes to receivers against the Titans. Expect Rodgers to try to take some deep shots with his new receiver. Watson brings a high ceiling in this matchup.

Jerry Jeudy was a start last week and suffered an injury basically on the first play of the game. Hopefully he has a speedy recovery. But in his absence, we saw Sutton return to our fantasy lives. He finished with 11 targets, six catches and 66 yards. That 12.6-point day was the most he scored since Week 4. His 11 targets were nearly double the next closest Bronco (six) and his 124 air yards were more than double anyone else on Denver. The Raiders defense has been friendly to opposing fantasy players all season. They are just outside the top 10 in fantasy PPG allowed to the position for the year and the last month. Sutton got them for over 16 fantasy points when they met in Week 4 and Russell Wilson had his best game of the year against them. I know Sutton has been disappointing as of late, but with Jeudy sidelined and in a great matchup, Sutton is worth taking a shot on this week.

It's been a frustrating season for Johnson. Most weeks he sees a ton of volume but has not been able to turn it into much production, especially as of late. Johnson scored 10.3 fantasy points last week, which was his most since Week 5, having scored single digits in three straight before Week 10. Since Kenny Pickett took over in Week 4, Johnson has averaged 8.4 fantasy PPG, while topping double-digits just twice. His high game is 11 fantasy points. He has averaged 4.4 catches and 35 yards per game with the rookie signal-caller. Johnson is just another great player who is being held back by this offense this season. Plus, he faces the Bengals, who have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy PPG to receivers this season (28.8). That is the same number they have allowed in the past month. Get away from Johnson this week.

Smith finished Week 10 with a team-high eight targets, turning them into six catches for 39 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown is nice, but it really salvaged his day. Without it, he would have been looking at single digits for a third straight game. Smith has been up and down this year, target-wise and fantasy point-wise. However, this is shaping up to be a matchup where the Eagles might not have to throw too much and, even if they do, there is no guarantee of success. The Colts have allowed the fewest fantasy PPG to receivers this season at 24.1 per game. That number actually drops to 20.9 fantasy PPG in the past month. Smith is always a bit boom or bust, but especially this week in a tough matchup like this one.

Thielen has scored under 10 fantasy points in each of the past two weeks. That just so happens to be the two games that T.J. Hockenson was with the Vikings. Even more importantly, in those two weeks, Hockenson has been stealing away precious red zone targets. That is important because Thielen has single-digit fantasy points in five of seven games without a touchdown this season. Thielen is still highly rostered and started because he is a big name, but he is not the same player he was a couple of years ago. He brings a low floor and a low ceiling for a receiver. He has topped 15 fantasy points just twice and never once reached 20 this season. The Cowboys might look like a good matchup on paper, but given the added target competition for Thielen, who already hasn’t been putting up consistent production. Thielen is best left on the bench.   

Robinson was a sit last week and he finished with just two catches for 20 yards to go with negative-5 rushing yards. That seemed like a good matchup on paper, but it led to a poor game script as the Giants jumped out to a lead and were fine riding Saquon Barkley and relying on their defense. The scary part for Robinson is the Giants will likely try a similar game plan this week against the Lions, who struggle mightily against the run. Robinson has three targets or fewer in each of the last two games and has just one game with over five targets. That especially hurts Robinson because he is not a downfield type of receiver, so he relies on volume to rack up fantasy points. There is still potential down the road, but until we see him being used more consistently, he can hit the bench.