NFL Fantasy 2022 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 16: Quarterbacks

After three fantasy duds, Tagovailoa bounced back with 18 fantasy points on 234 passing yards and two touchdowns. It's still not the numbers he was putting up before the Dolphins' bye week, but we know he possesses that upside. It was nice to see him and the Miami offense adjust after the league was shifting coverage on them. It's nothing new, we have seen Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen go through a down stretch in their career as the league adjusts. The great ones adjust, and I expect the Miami offense to do just that. This week, Tua faces the Packers, who have allowed 18.5 fantasy PPG to QBs in the last month, just outside the top 10. Given the firepower that this offense has, I would keep starting Tagovailoa.  

Lawrence has been red hot of late. He has averaged 24.5 fantasy PPG in his last five games -- topping 24 fantasy points in three of his last four. Last week, he faced a very tough Cowboys defense. I won’t lie, I considered having him as a sit. Boy am I glad I did not. Lawrence ended up throwing for 318 yards with four touchdowns and 21 rushing yards to finish with 26.82 fantasy points despite two turnovers. Lawrence just looks more comfortable as a passer. He is evading defenders and keeping plays extended, while keeping his eyes downfield. He looks like the player I saw when I watched all of his snaps during his final season at Clemson. Lawrence gets another tough matchup this week against the Jets on TNF, but he has been playing so well that I am fine riding the hot hand and continuing to start Lawrence. Even after Lawrence’s big week, the Cowboys have allowed fewer fantasy PPG to QBs than the Jets. Plus, I am not alone with this thinking! 

Cousins had -0.38 fantasy points at halftime in Week 15 and somehow ended up with 32.4 fantasy points against the Colts. There was something about the largest comeback in NFL history that helped him get there. In all seriousness, Cousins deserves a lot of credit for his play this season. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in two straight games and over 21 in three of his last four. Cousins has also been much better at home, having scored fewer than 18 fantasy points there just twice. But those outings came against the Cowboys and Patriots, and the Vikings get a better matchup this week against the Giants. New York ranks middle of the pack against QBs, but the G-Men are certainly not a defense to shy away from. Especially not with the Vikings defense giving up a ton of production and forcing Cousins to throw. Continue to start Cousins if he got you this far.  

Jones is coming off a down game against the Commanders, but he was consistently topping 15 fantasy points prior to that. He was averaging 18.8 fantasy PPG in the five prior games to Week 15, and his low was 14.5. We can give Jones a one-week pass, especially since he was listed as a sit last week. But this week is all about the matchup. The Vikings have allowed the eighth-most fantasy PPG to QBs in the last month (19.5), and the seventh-most on the season (19.1). Matt Ryan might have disappointed, but every other QB who played them recently has gone off. Jones is certainly in play in this fantastic matchup.

This is the furthest thing from ideal that could happen at this point in the season. Real life MVP candidate and fantasy MVP favorite Jalen Hurts is dealing with a shoulder injury and his status for this Saturday’s game is up in the air. Given it's on a short week, and while it might seem like a huge game to many, Philly only needs to win one more to clinch the No. 1 seed. Meaning, they can elect to take their time with Hurts. If he sits, Minshew (a.k.a. Minshewmania) is the next man up. Minshew averaged 17.9 fantasy PPG as a starter in 2020, which was 13th at the position. That was after averaging 16.4 fantasy PPG as a rookie. Minshew is a quality backup, and if you lost Hurts, he is an obvious replacement candidate. In two-QB formats, he might be the only format. You cannot replace Hurts, but you could do worse than Minshew in this offense. 

Prescott had a good game last week, but it was his first time scoring more than 20 fantasy points since he played the Vikings in Week 11. Looking at his game logs and one thing jumps out: Prescott puts up good fantasy numbers in favorable matchups. The rest is kind of meh. In the three games between contests against the Vikes and Jags, he averaged 15 fantasy PPG and failed to top 17 in any. This week is certainly anything but a favorable matchup. Philly has allowed just 12.8 fantasy PPG to QBs this season, the second-lowest in the NFL. It was the lowest before Justin Fields had a big day with his legs, but do not expect the same from Prescott. He is not a must-sit, but if you have another QB you can trust, go in that direction.

Goff has still yet to score more than 15 fantasy points in a road game this season. He nearly did against the Jets last week, but Goff failed to connect on a should-have-been long touchdown pass to Jameson Williams. In fact, Goff has averaged 9.4 fantasy points on the road. He has scored more than 15 fantasy points in every home game. As Adam Rank would say, Goff is an indoor cat. The Panthers are also just outside the bottom 10, allowing just 15.8 fantasy PPG to QBs. I would sit Goff this week, but do not cut him, as he would be in play in Week 17 at home against the Bears.

Carr bounced back from a dud performance in Week 14 with a 19-fantasy point game against the Patriots. Carr has been playing better as of late, but the ceiling remains around 20 fantasy points at the highest, and the floor is extremely low as we have been reminded at multiple points this season. On the year,, the Steelers might look like a favorable matchup, but they are a different unit when both T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick play. The Steelers have allowed the fewest fantasy PPG to QBs in the last month (10.1). I would get away from Carr in a must-win fantasy matchup.