We’ve still got nearly 200 days until regular-season NFL football returns to our screens, but the league never sleeps, and Free Agency Frenzy is on the horizon. Several signatures shifting millions of dollars over the next couple months will vastly change the landscape of the 2025 season.
But a few of the available free agents could bring just as much risk as they do potential reward. Advancing age, declining play, injury concerns and more could set low floors for these players, while the promise of a massive ceiling could still lead to significant paydays.
Here are 12 of the most boom-or-bust free agents of the 2025 offseason.
NOTE: Players are listed with the age they will be on Sept. 4, when the 2025 NFL season is set to kick off.
There might never be a better candidate for this piece than Sam Darnold in 2025. Similar to Baker Mayfield last year, Darnold has a range of outcomes that stretches from high-tier backup to legitimate franchise QB. But in comparison to Mayfield, Darnold’s career lows have been much lower, while his high -- early last year with Minnesota -- sparked legitimate MVP consideration.
As a refresher, entering 2024, Darnold had a 21-35 record as a starter, had topped out at 3,024 yards and 19 touchdowns in a single season (both in 2019) and had a career 78.3 passer rating -- easily the worst among 35 passers with 1,000 attempts in that span. Then, in a breakout season with the Vikings, he logged 4,319 pass yards, 36 total touchdowns and a 102.5 passer rating en route to a 14-3 record and his first Pro Bowl selection -- before regressing again in a pair of ugly losses to end the year.
To complicate matters more, the Vikings have J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings, making it even tougher to justify a roughly $40-million-per-year investment in Darnold. That means another franchise might have to wager that it can get the same production out of the former No. 3 overall pick as Coach of the Year Kevin O’Connell did, or that KOC permanently fixed the veteran passer for the future. If it works, and he is indeed a franchise leader, Darnold should be a steal. If it doesn’t, some team might thrash multiple years of cap space on a middling starter or worse.
With the Bengals committed to bringing back Tee Higgins and Tampa aiming to re-sign Chris Godwin, the top free-agent wideout on the 2025 market might end up being Amari Cooper. However, the former fourth overall pick will turn 31 in June and is coming off the worst season of his career -- and the second season in which he was traded in October. In 14 games with the Browns and Bills in 2024, he totaled just 547 yards and four touchdowns, and he was a complete non-factor in the majority of his games in Buffalo following the trade deadline.
Still, in 2023, Cooper was a 1,250-yard Pro Bowler while playing with five quarterbacks in Cleveland. He’s hit 1,000 yards seven times in his decade-long career and remains a preeminent route runner. In the right situation, Cooper could be a top-10 receiver once again. The tough part will be finding that optimal setting at his roughly $15-million-per-year price point.
I’d project him to go to a team where he can be a 1A or 1B -- rather than a 150-target No. 1 or a distant No. 2 -- for a talented passer. A return to Buffalo, where he'd get to spend the offseason and preseason preparing with Josh Allen, might make the most sense, but a trip to Denver with Bo Nix, Houston with C.J. Stroud or Washington with Jayden Daniels could work, as well. I will be much more concerned about a bust-type year if he ends up with the Raiders (again), Saints, Steelers or another team of their ilk.
If the Amari Cooper situation intrigues you, here’s a second helping of veteran receiver talk. Like Cooper, Stefon Diggs will be 31 at the start of the 2025 season and is coming off his worst year to date (though he also missed nine games with a torn ACL). Like Cooper, Diggs was exceptional in 2023 (recording 1,183 receiving yards, eight touchdowns and a fourth straight Pro Bowl nod) and has a decorated history of 1,000-yard seasons. And like Cooper, he remains one of the league’s most respected route technicians and has the potential to be a top-10 wideout once again. It’s no coincidence that Buffalo brought Cooper in to help fill the hole left by Diggs, or that I just listed Houston among Cooper’s upside landing spots.
The big wrinkle with Diggs, however, is the knee injury. He suffered it in late October, so the timeline for recovery -- namely, how much of the 2025 season he misses, if any -- is both tenuous and potentially crucial to his free agency prospects. His playing style is also particularly dependent on lateral agility, cuts and quickness, so the question of effectiveness immediately upon return could raise added concerns.
Texans teammate Tank Dell suffered an even worse knee injury later in the year (December), so they will need the depth behind Nico Collins and could look to re-sign Diggs sooner than later. If they don’t, he could find a fit in Denver or Washington (as I noted for Cooper). He also might be a decent short-term play for a contender like Baltimore, Green Bay or Dallas (another Cooper connection).
Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley turns 31 years old a few days into the new league year and is nearly nine years removed from the 2016 NFL Draft, when Baltimore selected him sixth overall. And yet, he just recorded his best season in years, earning his second Pro Bowl nod as Lamar Jackson’s blindside protector. He started all 19 games, including playoffs, and allowed just two sacks on 596 pass-blocking snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.
The main concern with Stanley is injury -- 2024 was the first full season of his career and he’d missed more games over the prior four years (35) than he’d played (31). Considering the price tag he’s likely to carry into 2025 (that of a top-10 tackle), a regression in health or effectiveness on the field would be pretty concerning for the team that signs him.
It’s possible Baltimore brings him back -- which appears to be a priority for general manager Eric DeCosta -- but the team isn't exactly brimming with cap space. If the Ravens are forced to let him walk, I could see a bidding war between the Patriots, Commanders and Bears -- three teams with top-tier cap space and a glaring need to protect the franchise quarterbacks they drafted last April.
After Haason Reddick successfully carried his 2020 breakout campaign with the Cardinals through a one-year, prove-it deal in Carolina, it made sense when Philadelphia signed him to a solid three-year contract the next offseason. It also made sense when Reddick rewarded that multi-year deal with a career performance in 2022, recording 16 sacks and leading the league with five forced fumbles. Heck, it even made sense that after making a second consecutive Pro Bowl with Philly in 2023, Reddick wanted more money ... and that the Eagles preferred to trade him to the Jets instead (it worked out for Philly).
What didn’t make much sense was Reddick’s stubborn holdout through the entire 2024 offseason and nearly half of the 2024 regular season, his (rejected) trade request or his dismal production in the 10 games he did play with New York. He had one sack, 14 tackles and three QB hits. He's also now 30 years old. It was about as unconvincing a contract year as a player could have. But the fact remains that Reddick hit double-digit sacks in each of the previous four seasons and was among the top pass-rushing linebackers in the league over that stretch.
Will another team overlook the drama and the poor 2024 production for the promise of Reddick’s upside on the edge? Probably. Will the move carry plenty of boom-and-bust potential? Almost certainly. Among teams that make sense, the Cardinals (coached by Jonathan Gannon, Reddick’s defensive coordinator in 2022 with the Eagles), the Falcons (if they can make it work financially) and the Commanders (whose massive allotment of projected cap space makes them a frequent flier in this column) could be front-runners.
It feels like we’ve all learned a valuable lesson from the last few NFL seasons: Inconsistent quarterbacks often just need the right environment to turn their bust status into award-level boom in as little as a single season. Geno Smith did it in 2022. Baker Mayfield did it in 2023. Sam Darnold did it in 2024. Even Bryce Young started to show signs at the end of the year.
Justin Fields has flashed plenty of upside in four seasons, but the vast majority of it has come on the ground, while his passing production has remained unsustainably low. He needs the right situation if he’s going to develop into a true franchise QB and not just a rush-package specialist. A franchise that pulls that off on a short-term deal for backup money would land an astronomical value. Otherwise, he’ll merely be one of the league’s most expensive benchwarmers.
It’s still possible the Steelers bring him back, considering his impressive 4-2 stretch as the starter prior to Russell Wilson’s mixed tenure at the helm in 2024. Despite their checkered past with this sort of thing, the Jets could also be a potential landing spot, with decent weapons and an overall roster that will likely lean on the run game and the defense. Alternatively, the other residents of MetLife could be in consideration, as the Giants have Brian Daboll (a key piece in the development of reigning MVP Josh Allen in Buffalo) and a young stud wideout in Malik Nabers for Fields to connect with (plus a top pick to further bolster the supporting cast).
After being a surprise cut (to some) last offseason, Aaron Jones had a great year in Minnesota, racking up 1,546 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. A top free agent running back once again this March, Jones' production for $7 million in 2024 -- which could be a likely 2025 price point, as well -- was excellent value.
However, he is now 30 years old. Running backs historically reach a cliff right around this age, and a deeper look at Jones’ 2025 numbers might suggest he already did. For the first seven weeks of the season, Jones was averaging 6.0 yards per touch and 105.5 yards per game. Over the next 12 games (including playoffs), he averaged 4.5 yards per touch and 81.1 yards per game -- a roughly 25 percent dip. According to Next Gen Stats, he hit 15+ MPH on 29 percent of his runs through Week 7 and just 17 percent for the remainder of the season.
Prospective suitors will expect Jones to have significant juice left in the tank, and if he replicates his overall production from 2024, there won’t be much room for complaint. But if Jones has or does hit that cliff and ends up falling out of strong starter contention, it’s going to hurt a franchise’s bottom line. By all accounts, it would make sense for the Vikings to bring him back, so Jones could be in line for an encore in 2025. Otherwise, he could go somewhere like the Broncos (to lead a currently leaderless RB committee), the Chargers (to pair with Gus Edwards in the Jim Harbaugh-Greg Roman system) or the Steelers (with Najee Harris likely on the way out).
Chase Young made this column one year ago, entering 2024 free agency after a midseason trade from Washington to San Francisco. As projected then, Young did indeed sign a short-term prove-it deal and showed a decent amount during his year in New Orleans, finishing with a career-high 70 QB pressures and a 16.2 percent pressure rate, according to Next Gen Stats.
Young has not reached his pre-draft potential -- that of a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate worthy of the second overall pick -- but he’s also still just 25 years old. Is there a system, coach and/or coordinator that could unlock that upside in the former Defensive Rookie of the Year? Maybe. That is the ultimate ceiling, making him a worthy gamble at his projected price point. It feels a little less likely with each passing year, but he's also shown flashes. It would be interesting to slot him in opposite a proven pass rusher, possibly Joey Bosa/Khalil Mack in Los Angeles (pending the Chargers' moves in the coming weeks), former teammate Montez Sweat in Chicago or Aidan Hutchinson in Detroit.
Once upon a time, DeAndre Hopkins was one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. From 2017 to 2019, he earned three straight first-team All-Pro selections. Unfortunately, the last time he even made a Pro Bowl was the 2020 season. Since then, he’s logged fewer than 1,000 yards in three of four years, missing six games in 2021 and eight games in 2022. In 2024, he averaged a career-low 38 receiving yards per game and did not hit 100 yards in a contest once all season.
Set to turn 33 in June, Hopkins might simply be too far past his prime, but it’s also worth noting he dealt with a knee injury for much of last year. If there is a contender willing to invest in the potential future Hall of Famer, and if he enters 2025 fully healthy, there might be room for a surprise resurgence. I’d be intrigued to see him go to the Ravens, Bills or Rams (if they bring back Matthew Stafford) or possibly to a reunion with the Houston Texans.
Speaking of wideouts the Chiefs tried in 2024 (without much success), Hollywood Brown is also set to be a free agent after a one-year deal with Kansas City resulted in just 14 catches for 141 yards across two regular-season games and three playoff contests. Brown missed a majority of the season with a shoulder injury, and by the time he returned to action, rookie Xavier Worthy had established himself in the role Brown might have otherwise held.
Like Gabe Davis last year, Brown is an interesting case to consider. In his six NFL seasons, he’s had six games with 100-plus yards and four with multiple touchdowns, showing very little consistency since he was drafted in the first round by Baltimore. Brown turns 28 years old in June and projects to make less than $10 million per year on his next contract, so a team in need of an upside speedster could get quite a deal if Brown finds his stride. He could be an interesting replacement for Brandin Cooks in Dallas or an injured Tank Dell in Houston, or a downfield complement to Ladd McConkey with the Chargers.
At nearly 33 years old, DeMarcus Lawrence isn’t quite the production powerhouse he was in the late 2010s, when he posted a pair of double-digit sack seasons and regularly topped 50 or 60 QB pressures. Despite starting 17 games in both 2022 and 2023, he totaled just 10 sacks and 92 pressures combined. And last year, a Lisfranc injury ended his season after just four games -- though he did have three sacks, five QB hits and a forced fumble in that month of action.
That said, Lawrence has still been a mostly superb edge defender, regularly earning elite PFF grades prior to last season and sitting at a 91.5 overall defensive grade for the last five years, eighth-best among edge rushers. If he returns relatively healthy in 2025, and his motor remains strong despite the advancing age, Lawrence could be a great pickup for a defense with cap room to spare, like the rival Commanders, the Lions or the Chargers.
Asante Samuel Jr. enters free agency after serving out his rookie contract in Los Angeles. Unfortunately, he missed all but four games of his contract season with a shoulder injury that he said has been an issue his whole life. In the four games Samuel did play, he recorded a 59.3 defensive grade and a 22 percent missed tackle rate, per PFF. Prior to that rough 2024, he had increased his defensive grade -- and more specifically his coverage grade -- each successive season to start his career.
The major question for teams looking to sign Samuel this offseason will be about scheme fit and health. He is a strong cover corner with room to grow and could be a key piece to a squad looking to shore up its pass defense. He’s also missed 27 percent of his career tackle attempts against the run, which is one of the worst rates at his position and can make him a liability in that phase of the game. Teams that might consider taking a shot at Samuel’s upside include the Raiders, Commanders and Patriots (with whom his father, Asante Samuel, won a pair of Super Bowls).