NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend: Ravens over Steelers across the board; Eagles will beat Packers

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 9 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. \\ -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SATURDAY, JAN. 11

Why Brooke picked the Chargers: Looking to erase the sting of the Chargers' last playoff meltdown, Justin Herbert is a more confident, more efficient quarterback this time around. He enters the postseason with career bests in pass yards per attempt (7.7), TD-to-INT ratio (23:3) and passer rating (101.7), working behind an offensive line that's kept him relatively clean. Both tackles, Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt, will have their hands full against edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., the leaders of a Houston defense that has pressured QBs at the second-highest rate (37.8) among playoff teams this season. The trench battle when L.A. has the ball might be the most intriguing matchup of this contest. Slater has allowed 39 pressures, third-most among left tackles (min. 500 pass-blocking snaps), while Alt has allowed 37, also third-most among right tackles with the same parameters, per Next Gen Stats. When not under pressure, Herbert has thrown 18 touchdown passes against zero picks. But even if he is protected, Herbert must account for Houston's sticky defensive backs, which leads me to believe Jim Harbaugh will once again lean on J.K. Dobbins and the run game.

C.J. Stroud and Co. have sputtered down the stretch, as Houston's offense hasn't put up more than 23 points since mid-November. The unit isn't the same without receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, and Joe Mixon and the offensive line have failed to get anything going on the ground in weeks. On paper, L.A.'s defense appears to have the upper hand against Stroud, a bottom-third passer against zone coverage, in which the Chargers operate nearly 80 percent of the time. It's not just that. Stroud is 1-5 against top-10 scoring defenses this season, tossing six TDs and seven picks with Houston averaging 15.5 points per contest. In order to return to the Divisional Round, the Texans will need to find some offense. Unfortunately, I don't see that magically happening in this high-stakes game.

Why Ali picked the Ravens: These rivals have been on two completely different trajectories over the past month. The Ravens have been arguably the most dominant team in the NFL since Week 15, winning four in a row while ranking third in total offense, first in total defense and boasting a league-best point-differential that’s 29(!) points better than the second-ranked Bucs. The Steelers, meanwhile, have dropped their last four games, ranking 31st in total offense, 29th in total defense and 30th in point differential. During this miserable run, Pittsburgh has lost to Philadelphia, Kansas City and, yes, Baltimore -- three of the league's best teams, to be fair -- by at least 14 points apiece. The Steelers currently can’t score and can’t stop teams from scoring, which is a recipe for a first-round exit.

They say the season doesn’t truly begin until the playoffs hit, though, and perhaps the threat of another one-and-done campaign is exactly what this group of prideful veterans needs to jump-start the operation. But the Steelers simply don't have much to hang their hat on right now, while everything is seemingly clicking for their opponent. So unless the Ravens end up beating themselves -- by giving up on the run game, missing kicks, reverting back to their early-season defensive ways, etc. -- I have a tough time seeing Pittsburgh advance to Round 2.

SUNDAY, JAN. 12

Why Dan picked the Bills: It’s been a fun ride for Sean Payton and Bo Nix in their first year together. I don’t see Buffalo’s season ending without a playoff win, though. The odds are stacked against Denver. Rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 in road playoff games since 2015, per NFL Research, and Payton is 1-5 in his career on the road in the postseason. The Broncos were great at handling their business against lesser teams, but they went just 2-7 against squads that finished the regular season at .500 or better, with one of those wins coming last week against a Chiefs team that was resting starters. Buffalo’s winning percentage happens to be .765.

Maybe if top MVP candidate Josh Allen falls on his face, things could take a surprising turn. However, this would be an absolutely shocking time for Allen to faceplant. Vance Joseph’s defense blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the league (37.3%), but Allen boasts the third-highest passer rating against the blitz (123.2) with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 16:1. The 2024 Bills have won by avoiding mistakes that bogged them down in the past -- in fact, they are the only team in the Super Bowl era to allow fewer than one sack and fewer than one takeaway per game. It’s going to take an incredible effort from DPOY contender Pat Surtain II and Co. to quiet the league’s second-ranked scoring offense, and I don’t see it happening in Buffalo, where the Bills haven’t lost all season.

Why Gennaro picked the Eagles: Because I’m still waiting for the Packers to prove they can bang with the big boys. The NFC North was the league's toughest division in the regular season, and nobody knows that better than Matt LaFleur. Green Bay went 1-5 in divisional games, with the lone win coming courtesy of a last-second blocked field goal in Chicago. Speaking of the lowly Bears, they just snapped a 10-game losing streak with a season-ending win at Green Bay. Yes, I know Jordan Love left that game in the second quarter with a right elbow injury that he might've played through had the season been on the line. Is that supposed to make me feel confident heading into this Sunday's bout in Philadelphia? The quarterback was limited in Wednesday’s practice, telling the assembled media he’s “hopeful” he’ll be able to play. Even if we operate under the assumption that Love will indeed give it a go, this development further emphasizes the feeling that he hasn’t been operating at the peak of his powers all season, going back to when he sprained his MCL in the Week 1 loss to these Eagles.

Now, the quarterback position’s a topic of concern in Philly, too. Jalen Hurts just practiced for the first time since suffering a concussion back on Dec. 22. Presuming Hurts also takes the field on Sunday, will he be rusty? Quite possibly. But he’s supported by the best defense -- and best active roster -- in the entire postseason field.

The Eagles stumbled into last year’s playoffs and promptly suffered a vicious road beatdown. Meanwhile, the Packers entered that tournament hot and proceeded to dazzle. I’m sensing a role reversal.

Why Tom picked the Buccaneers: This pick will probably be wrong. It will probably look like the correct choice for most of the game, perhaps even up until there are mere seconds remaining -- and that's when Jayden Daniels will pull off yet another miracle triumph for Washington. Daniels has become so proficient at last-minute magic lately that it almost feels daring to pick the better overall team here. So Baker Mayfield didn't quite live up to all the praise I heaped on him last week. He still has Mike Evans and Bucky Irving at his disposal, and the defense is on track to get Antoine Winfield Jr. back from a four-game absence. Daniels did overcome a better D than Tampa's in Week 16's upset of the Eagles, but Philly was rolling with backup QB Kenny Pickett for most of that game. Otherwise, Washington has yet to beat an opponent as imposing as the Bucs, with 10 of their victories coming against opponents that finished 2024 with losing records. Baker moves to the Divisional Round for the third time in his career.

MONDAY, JAN. 13

Why Tom picked the Vikings: First, with this event scheduled to take place in the Los Angeles area, we need to address the harrowing and tragic wildfires. I have no idea how they will affect a comparatively trivial football game. Regardless of where it is played, I hope this game can serve as a distraction for those who need one. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: The NFL announced Thursday evening that the contest will be played on Monday night at the Cardinals' home field, State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.)

Looking at this matchup strictly from a football perspective, the Rams have a lot to like: the seasoned leadership of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford, the proven playmaking ability of Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp, the proficient young defensive front led by Jared Verse and Kobie Turner. Plus, there's the fact that L.A. won this very matchup in Week 8. But there was enough weirdness in that one -- a Thursday Night Football showdown coming four days after a hard-fought loss to the Lions, with Sam Darnold and the offense having to adjust midgame to left tackle Christian Darrisaw's season-ending injury -- that it's easy to imagine Minnesota ending up on top this time around. Not to mention, I said I'd pick the Vikes in a work meeting to plan this file, and you don't go back on Zoom promises. So I'm making the brave choice to pick the 14-win team that almost finished with the best record in the NFC. It's something of a leap of faith, but I'm counting on Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores -- and, oh yeah, perhaps the best receiver in the game -- to come through and secure the franchise's first postseason win since the 2019 playoffs.

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