There’s a cliché -- Tom Brady himself uttered it on the air Sunday -- that tells you football season starts after Thanksgiving. It’s time to pick out your turkey because with just six weeks to go in the regular season, the push for the playoffs is starting to take shape.
Teams, of course, want to be playing their best ball going into December and January, and that means it’s time to fix what ails them, the weaknesses that have been exposed since September but that might not be survivable for much longer. After all, it seems only the Kansas City Chiefs can usually surmount their vulnerabilities -- the last two weeks it’s been the defense -- although even their margin, this week against the Carolina Panthers, is getting thin.
This isn’t about teams like the Jets and Giants, who are so replete with issues that jobs have already been lost and seasons put on mothballs. And every team can have a clunker, like the Cardinals did Sunday, managing just two field goals against the Seahawks, by far their season low in scoring to end a four-game winning streak. This is about those who are, or should be, in the playoff mix but for the areas that are letting them down.
We have a few ideas of the teams, players and units that need to wake up before it has gotten much too late in the season.
1) Commanders offense
This rut has to be more than Jayden Daniels’ bad rib, doesn’t it? The Commanders lost their third straight game, but the underlying issue is an offense that doesn’t look much like the one we saw before Week 7, when Daniels was hurt, and has dropped off dramatically during the losing streak. It didn’t come alive until the fourth quarter against the Cowboys, scoring only nine points in the first three quarters despite starting three early drives in Dallas territory. Five drives ended after only three offensive plays, one of them when Daniels was intercepted. In Weeks 1 through 9, Daniels’ completion percentage was 71.5. In Weeks 10 and 11 (both losses), it was 59.1, and on Sunday, it was 65.8. In Weeks 1-9, Daniels’ touchdown-to-interception ratio was 9-2. Since then, it’s 3-3. Worst of all, Sunday’s loss came against a struggling Cowboys defense and risks dropping the Commanders out of the NFC East race.
2) Steelers offense
The Steelers are 8-3, but for a team with grander aspirations than just a playoff appearance, their inability to get into the end zone is concerning. The Steelers entered Week 12 averaging just two offensive touchdowns per game, the fewest of any team with a winning record this season. Then they managed just one touchdown in the loss to the Cleveland Browns. A big part of the reason Mike Tomlin made the switch to Russell Wilson was a desire for more downfield passes and more explosion in the offense. Wilson’s moonballs are still things of beauty, George Pickens can catch anything, and the defense is special, but it probably isn’t sustainable to regularly beat top-tier teams like the Ravens with field goals alone.
3) Kickers
All of them. Yes, we have seen kickers make what were once unthinkably long field goals with plenty of room to spare. The Cowboys’ Brandon Aubrey booted an NFL-record 65-yarder against the Ravens in Week 3. And we have also seen the league’s best kickers miss badly. In Week 12, Aubrey had a 35-yard field-goal attempt blocked and missed a 42-yarder against the Commanders. The Commanders’ Austin Seibert missed two extra points and a field goal on Sunday. The Texans’ Ka’imi Fairbairn missed a 28-yarder that would have tied the game against the Titans with less than two minutes remaining. Entering Sunday, the overall field goal percentage was 84.9. If that holds up, it would be the lowest since 2018 and would be a full percentage point lower than last season.
4) Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud
The defending Offensive Rookie of the Year seems to be mired in a real sophomore slump. The Texans’ offensive line has been spotty and the receivers banged up, but Stroud has also been inaccurate. On Sunday, he threw two interceptions – his third game this season with multiple interceptions -- bringing his season total to nine, already four more than he threw all last season. His average yards per pass is down a full yard, to 7.2, from last season. With the Texans trailing by three with 1:29 remaining , they began a drive at their own 8-yard line. Two plays later, Stroud stepped out of the back of the end zone for a safety. Stroud has five interceptions in his last three games and his passer rating since Week 7 is 74.7, the second-worst among qualified quarterbacks. After the game, Stroud admitted he hasn’t been playing well. The Texans will probably make the playoffs anyway, because they hold a two-game lead in the AFC South over the Colts, the only team with a realistic chance to catch them. But the expectations for the Texans were higher than that.
5) Bears special teams
Blocked field goal. Muffed punt. The beat goes on. All the attention this season has been on Caleb Williams’ ups and downs. But with the exception of a late onside kick recovery – the third in the league this season – that allowed the Bears to send the game against the Vikings to overtime, Bears special teams have been a problem. Last week, the Bears lost to the Packers when a potential game-winning field goal was blocked. That means special teams has played a key role in wasting two of Williams’ best games of the season, since the Bears made the change at offensive coordinator. Their season would look very different had things in just those two games gone differently.
6) San Francisco 49ers
Every team has injuries, yes, but when the roster is dotted with Pro Bowl-caliber players, their absences are especially acute. With injuries, at various times, to Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa and Brock Purdy, it feels like the 49ers have rarely been whole. It’s shown. In 2023, the 49ers were third in scoring and scoring defense. They entered Week 12 tied for eighth in scoring offense and 16th in scoring defense. The 49ers are 5-6, after their Bosa-less defense got shredded by the Packers, allowing them a season high 38 points, and their Purdy and Williams- less offense struggled on third down (3-of-10) and lost the time of possession battle by more than 13 minutes. They aren’t out of the NFC playoff mix, but the health of their stars, especially Purdy, is up in the air and they have a tough schedule ahead -- that includes the Bills, Rams, Dolphins, Lions and Cardinals.