Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024 05:24 PM

NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 11 of 2024 season

Senior Director, Content & Editorial

Entering Week 11 of the 2024 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.

A few notes before we dig in:

All probabilities presented are current as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 12 unless otherwise noted below.
Terms defined:
- If win: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in its upcoming game.
- If lose: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in its upcoming game.
- Playoff leverage: Refers to the quantifiable impact of a single game on a team's playoff prospects. It is calculated as the difference between a team's probability of making the playoffs if it wins the upcoming game versus if it loses. This metric essentially captures the stakes of a game in terms of playoff qualification. A high playoff leverage indicates that the outcome of the game has a significant influence on the team's playoff chances, making it a critical matchup, whereas a low playoff leverage suggests that the game has a lesser impact on the team's playoff probabilities.

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On the bubble
Still in the hunt
Division races

NFL playoff picture entering Week 11

With two fewer losses than the rest of the AFC field and an easier remaining schedule than any of their closest competitors, the Chiefs are the overwhelming favorites (76%) to capture the conference's No. 1 seed. But their hold on a first-round bye could loosen quite a bit this weekend, with two massive games on tap. If Kansas City was to lose at Buffalo and Baltimore was to fall in Pittsburgh, the Bills and Steelers would significantly eat into the Chiefs' margin. The Bills would also have the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Chiefs locked up -- and the Steelers would be able to do the same when they host Patrick Mahomes and Co. on Christmas Day.
Speaking of the Chiefs ... their improbable walk-off win over Denver in Week 10 has left their AFC West rival with the worst odds (52%) of any of the 14 teams currently in the playoff picture. Although the Broncos certainly aren't in position to overlook any of their next three opponents -- vs. Falcons, at Raiders, vs. Browns -- how they fare from Weeks 15 to 18 will likely decide whether they snap their eight-season playoff drought. That four-game spread includes divisional matchups with the Chargers and Chiefs, as well as high-leverage meetings with the Colts and Bengals -- the two teams directly behind them in the standings.
The Texans' route to the top seed became far more hazardous after their second-half meltdown on Sunday night. Still, they have one of the easier remaining schedules in the league, with five of their final seven games being against teams with three wins or less. Plus, they can directly help their cause when they visit Kansas City in Week 16.

The Lions' comeback in Houston last weekend helped them fend off contenders for the NFC's No. 1 seed for at least another week. And with their next three games being against sub.-500 teams, including the spiraling Bears and the sinking Jaguars, they have a prime opportunity to pad their lead before hosting the Packers -- whom they have already beaten once this year -- in Week 14.
Interestingly, the fifth-seeded Vikings -- and not the streaking Eagles -- are the most likely team to dethrone the Lions by season's end. Weighing down Philly's odds is a six-week stretch that includes the Commanders (twice), Rams, Ravens and Steelers. Even though the Eagles finish the year at home against the struggling Cowboys and Giants, those games might prove to be too little, too late.
In case the underdog Cardinals needed some extra motivation to chew on during their bye week, here's a fun nugget: They currently sport a lower probability of finishing atop the NFC than the eighth-seeded 49ers, whom they rank ahead of in the standings and have already beaten once.

Which teams are on the playoff bubble?

Despite dropping three in a row, Indianapolis is still on the cusp of re-entering the playoff picture. In fact, no AFC team has more leverage on the line in Week 11 than the Colts, who could improve their playoff probability by 17 percentage points with a win over the Jets in the Meadowlands.
That said, Indy can lose this weekend and remain in contention, with both a wild-card spot and an AFC South title serving as potential routes into the tournament. The Jets do not have that same luxury. Losing six of seven will do that. But there's still a glimmer of hope for Gang Green. They are the only three-win team that has a double-digit playoff probability, and by holding serve at home on Sunday, they could increase their odds by 5 points. A loss, on the other hand, would all but end their season.

No team in either conference faces a higher-leverage game than the 49ers this week (29 percentage points). A win versus Seattle would propel the Niners past the Cardinals (who are on a bye in Week 11) in overall playoff probability -- even though San Francisco would still rank behind Arizona in the divisional hierarchy.
The 'Hawks, currently winless in the NFC West (0-2), have a much slimmer margin for error than their opponent on Sunday. A loss would push Seattle farther down the NFC and NFC West standings, and the team would surrender the H2H tie-breaker to San Francisco. At that point, the Seahawks' path to the playoffs becomes far more complicated and improbable.
On Monday night, self-inflicted errors doomed the Rams -- and perhaps the team's playoff hopes. Even with a win at New England on Sunday (which is no gimme, the way the Patriots have been playing recently), L.A.'s playoff probability would only increase to 16 percent. The Rams would likely need to string together several wins to truly get back in contention, but dates with the Eagles and Bills before mid-December could make that difficult. If the Rams don't end up punching their ticket, they might look back at Monday night's loss as the reason why.

So you're saying there's a chance ...

(Teams with less than 10% probability to earn a playoff spot.)

The Dolphins' spirited showing Monday night kept the door ajar for them to sneak in as a wild card. Although they have the third easiest remaining slate in the league, they have zero upcoming games against teams directly ahead of them in the standings -- and, thus, lack a certain level of control in terms of how much ground they can gain.
Fresh off their most complete win of the season, the Patriots still have a remote chance of forcing their way into the postseason picture. They'd almost certainly have to win at Buffalo and Miami -- where they're a combined 1-7 going back to 2020 -- in the coming weeks, as well as take down the NFC West-leading Cardinals and the sixth-seeded Chargers. New England has a brutal eight weeks ahead, but there's a path to the playoffs buried deep within them.
In an award-winning effort, Joe Flacco led the Browns to four wins over their final five games last season to clinch the AFC's fifth seed. Can Jameis Winston one-up Flacco this year? Cleveland's extremely challenging second-half schedule cuts both ways -- though the stiffer competition will more than likely drop the Browns out of contention entirely, upcoming games against other bubble/fringe teams like Denver, Cincinnati and Miami give Kevin Stefanski's crew legit opportunities to gain ground.
At 0.46%, the Raiders have the lowest probability of making the playoffs of any team in the conference.

The Bears are the only four-win team with a playoff probability below 10 percent, in large part because of their devastatingly difficult second-half schedule. While the other 31 teams have a remaining SOS below .600, the Bears' is a nasty .711. However, Chicago's unforgiving upcoming slate could actually be a blessing in disguise. (I know what you're thinking, but stick with me for a second ...) With eight games in the conference and six in the division still to play, the Bears, if they were suddenly able to right their wayward ship, could, in theory, still win the NFC North. They'd obviously need a lot of help along the way. But the model spit out this Bears-fan fever dream in four of the 10,000 simulations.
This time a year ago, Dak Prescott was an MVP candidate, the Cowboys were 6-3 and a playoff appearance seemed like a foregone conclusion. Now, Dallas is hoping Cooper Rush/Trey Lance can lead one of the greatest midseason turnarounds in franchise history.
The Giants clinched a playoff berth in exactly one of the 10,000 simulations (.01%). That's the lowest probability of any team in the NFL.

Who's most likely to win each division?

With four fewer losses than Miami and the season series already secured, Buffalo has basically locked down the division with seven games to play. Paths technically do exist for the Dolphins, Jets and Patriots to still win the AFC East. But they are as implausible as they are messy. Of the three teams, the model has New York as the most likely, at a whopping .92%.

Though the Steelers currently sit in pole position, the model projects them to finish as the runner-up in the North. Their brutal second-half schedule, along with Baltimore's well-timed bye (Week 14), work against them. This race has the potential to go down to the wire, though, with Sunday's Ravens-Steelers meeting -- their first of the season -- being one of many high-leverage games for these clubs down the stretch.
While it'd be foolish to count out Joe Burrow in any circumstance, the Bengals' back-breaking loss to the Ravens last Thursday narrowed their road in the North considerably. But with home-and-away tilts with Pittsburgh still on the calendar (including the regular-season finale), Cincinnati has real chances to gain ground on the Steelers -- and even overtake them in January.

The Texans have the third-highest division win probability of any of the eight current frontrunners, with their two-game lead and H2H sweep of the Colts putting them on track to capture their second title in as many years.
Although the Jags are currently in line to clinch the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, they still have an outside shot (.40%) at winning the AFC South. So much would have to go just right for this to come to fruition -- starting with Trevor Lawrence returning to the lineup ASAP -- but 40 out of 10,000 isn't zero (even if it's very, very close to it).

The Chiefs' reign over the NFL begins with their domination over their division, which they're projected to win for the ninth consecutive season. Kansas City has won 33 of 39 division games since Patrick Mahomes became QB1 in 2018 -- no other team in the league even has 30. There's still a lot of season left, and the model leaves room for some improbable scenarios (though none for the Raiders, unfortunately), but this race could've been called weeks ago.

Although the Giants did not win the East in any of the 10,000 simulations, there is one real-life scenario not involving ties in which they end the 2024 campaign as division champs. Here's what would need to happen:

New York must win out, including at Philadelphia in Week 18, to finish 9-8.
Washington must split its two upcoming games with Philly and lose its other five to finish at 8-9.
Philadelphia must split its two upcoming games with Washington and lose its other six to finish 8-9.
Dallas must finish at 8-9 or worse but beat Washington twice and Philadelphia once.

The North will be a slugfest over the next two months, with each team still slotted to play at least four division games (the Bears have all six).
A schedule quirk might give the Vikings a slight boost in the coming weeks: Because the Lions, Packers and Bears all play on Thanksgiving Day, they'll have to suit up three times within a 12-day window. Although not ideal for Detroit, the Lions do get a slight calendar perk of their own, with a three-game home stand starting at the end of November. They'll also host Minnesota in what's shaping up to be a highly consequential regular-season finale.

The Panthers' first back-to-back wins since the start of the 2021 season have given the franchise and its young QB a desperately needed lifeline. So what if they return from their Week 11 bye to one of the league's three most difficult slates? While a playoff berth remains wholly unlikely, the Panthers have given themselves a chance to be relevant down the stretch. Should the Falcons fall this weekend in Denver, their lead over Carolina dwindles to just two games, with a head-to-head meeting still to come.

Arizona has proven to be a gritty, well-disciplined team. The Cardinals will need to be every bit as resolute down the stretch, now that Christian McCaffrey's returned to lead a late 49ers charge. This is the tightest of the eight races, with the AFC North the only other group featuring two teams with a division win probability above 40 percent. The Cardinals' Week 5 win at San Francisco looms large in this contest, as does the rubber match scheduled for Week 18.
The Seahawks, despite siting at the bottom of the rankings, remain in striking distance, with several high-leverage games on the calendar. Back-to-back wins against San Francisco and Arizona over the next two weeks would totally upend this competition. I'm here for the chaos!