Entering Week 14 of the 2024 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.
A few notes before we dig in:
- All probabilities presented are current as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 3 unless otherwise noted below.
- Terms defined:
- If win: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in its upcoming game.
- If lose: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in its upcoming game.
- Playoff leverage: Refers to the quantifiable impact of a single game on a team's playoff prospects. It is calculated as the difference between a team's probability of making the playoffs if it wins the upcoming game versus if it loses. This metric essentially captures the stakes of a game in terms of playoff qualification. A high playoff leverage indicates that the outcome of the game has a significant influence on the team's playoff chances, making it a critical matchup, whereas a low playoff leverage suggests that the game has a lesser impact on the team's playoff probabilities.
NFL playoff picture entering Week 14
- Although the No. 1 seed is still attainable by the seven teams currently in the AFC playoff picture, Kansas City and Buffalo are the only contenders with a probability above 5 percent. The Chargers (.43%), Texans (.10%), Ravens (0.05%) and Broncos (0.0%) are challengers in name only, while the Steelers, whose probability actually increased by 1 percentage point from last week, have more pressing matters at hand -- like not being swept by the Browns.
- Add the Black Friday Botch to the Chiefs' ever-growing list of unbelievable endings this year. If it wasn't the most absurd, it was at least the most meaningful: By outlasting Las Vegas, Kansas City secured its 10th consecutive playoff appearance and 14th straight victory in a game decided by a one-score margin (the longest such streak in the NFL), while Patrick Mahomes notched his 100th win as a starter (including playoffs). Oh, and it kept Andy Reid and Co. atop the AFC. But with the Bills nipping at their heels, the Chiefs can't afford to let up in the least. When they host the Chargers on Sunday night, they'll have the opportunity to add yet another accomplishment to their ledger: a ninth division title in as many seasons.
- As much as the Bills would've preferred a clean center-QB exchange by the Raiders on Friday afternoon (followed by a Daniel Carlson game-winning field goal for Las Vegas), exiting Week 13 with a fifth straight AFC East title is a pretty good consolation prize. In steamrolling San Francisco on Sunday night, Buffalo became just the seventh team ever -- and the first since the 2009 Colts -- to clinch a division title with five-plus weeks remaining in the regular season, per NFL Research. Of the previous six teams to do so, five advanced to the Super Bowl, with only one -- the iconic and inimitable '85 Bears -- winning the Lombardi Trophy.
- Hollywood will have a huge say in how the AFC's playoff story unfolds, with the Chargers (at Kansas City) and Rams (hosting the Bills) in position to re-write the script. Will Buffalo fare as well in the sunshine as it did in the snow, against a Rams team fighting for its survival? If not, the fallout could make the NFL's most competitive division that much more chaotic.
- Let's get the Week 14 clinching scenarios out of the way first. Here's a quick rundown from NFL Senior Researcher Jack Andrade that excludes ties (you can check out the complete list here):
- Detroit secures a playoff berth with:
- Lions win
- Buccaneers loss + Rams loss + Cardinals loss
- Buccaneers loss + Rams loss + Eagles win
- Buccaneers loss + Seahawks loss + Eagles win*
- Falcons loss + Seahawks loss + Eagles win*
- Falcons loss + Rams loss + Cardinals loss
- Falcons loss + Rams loss + Eagles win
- UPDATE: After another round of exhaustive cross-checking by Jack and the NFL Research team, two more scenarios were added for the Lions (denoted by an asterisk).
- Minnesota secures a playoff berth with:
- Vikings win + Cardinals loss + Rams loss
- Philadelphia secures a playoff berth with:
- Eagles win + Falcons loss + Cardinals loss + Packers loss
- Eagles win + Falcons loss + Cardinals loss + Rams loss
- Eagles win + Buccaneers loss + Cardinals loss + Packers loss
- Eagles win + Falcons loss + Cardinals loss + Rams loss
- Detroit secures a playoff berth with:
- Detroit could save us all a lot of trouble by winning Thursday night. Should they fall to the Packers, however, the Lions would still have multiple ways to secure a playoff berth by Sunday night -- with Bills-Rams playing a pivotal role. Most of the scenarios in which Detroit clinches by Monday morning involve L.A. losing to Buffalo. (There is also a much, much more complicated way for the Lions to clinch even with a loss in Week 14 that involves the infamous "strength of victory" tiebreaker and rests on more than half a dozen other outcomes, including the Bengals losing Monday night, but let's just cross that bridge when we come to it, shall we?)
- Whew. All right, now, where were we ... The fight for NFC supremacy remains marginally more competitive than the two-team battle being waged in the AFC. The Eagles and Vikings are both within arm's reach of an extremely talented but severely banged up Lions squad that just barely survived one of the more bizarre finishes in recent memory. And the Packers aren't out of it yet, either, even if their road is a bit messier (more on that in a second). As for the frontrunners ... Detroit's final five games (GB, BUF, at CHI, at SF, MIN) will test the team's mettle and defensive depth. If there's any club with the character and resilience to withstand the upcoming onslaught, though, it's Dan Campbell's crew.
- As I was just intimating, Green Bay's path to the No. 1 seed requires a few major pieces falling into place -- not only because the team is behind in the standings, but because its three losses this year have come at the hands of the three teams also vying for the first-round bye. Although the Packers can even the season series with Detroit (on Thursday) and Minnesota (in Week 17) before the regular season wraps, their Week 1 loss to the Eagles could loom over certain tie-breaking scenarios.
- This week's Packers-Lions affair will mark the third time Matt LaFleur and Dan Campbell have faced off on a Thursday; the coaches split the previous two meetings. If LaFleur takes the rubber match, things could get real dicey for Detroit -- at the top of the table and in the NFC North.
- Although the Seahawks could technically still finish first in the conference (if the NFC's best teams suddenly and simultaneously fall apart), Seattle (or whoever takes the West) and Atlanta (or whoever takes the South) are mainly jockeying for playoff positioning at this point (realistically, the NFC's third and fourth seeds). If I lost you with all the parentheticals, here's the main takeaway: Expect to see the South and West champs playing on Super Wild Card Weekend.
Which teams are on the playoff bubble?
- The Colts have two weeks to prepare for their massive bout with the Broncos -- easily one of the most consequential games remaining in the AFC Wild Card Race. With a win at Denver, Indy would narrow the Broncos' lead to only one game and own the H2H tie-breaker. The Broncos then play at Chargers and Bengals before hosting Kansas City to close out the campaign. The Colts, meanwhile, have home tilts versus the Titans and Jags sandwiched around a meeting with the Giants in the Meadowlands. If those schedules seem a bit uneven to you, you'd be right: Denver's remaining SOS (.592) is the seventh highest in the league ... Indy's is 31st (.306).
- The Dolphins failed to change the narrative last Thursday night at Lambeau, and, as a result, they now require conspiracy-level dot-connecting to chart a course into the playoff picture. With no real leverage games remaining, a Week 7 loss to Indy already on its ledger and no head-to-head advantages over Denver, L.A., Baltimore or Pittsburgh to speak of, Miami has to hope one of those four teams slips up mightily if it is to sneak its way in.
- As I've mentioned each week in this space, Tampa's two losses to Atlanta will likely hover over the NFC South race the rest of the way. However, now that the Bucs have climbed back to .500, it's some of their choice wins that could earn them entry into this year's tournament. Todd Bowles' group has beaten the first-seeded Lions, second-seeded Eagles and seventh-seeded Commanders already this season. While the first two upsets likely won't matter outside of one highly improbable scenario (it's coming, don't worry), the Week 1 triumph over Washington could give Tampa a leg up if both teams finish tied for a wild-card slot. And the two teams very well could; the Bucs can close to within one game of the Commanders this week by handling business at home against the 2-10 Raiders. Hard to believe that being true even a month ago.
- As for that improbable scenario ... a road exists that could lead Tampa to the top of the NFC table (even if the model didn't want to acknowledge it in any of the 10,000 simulations). Many things would have to happen for that future to become reality -- including the Bucs winning out, the Lions losing out and the Eagles and Vikings only claiming one more game apiece -- but it's out there if the universe decides to make it so. A logjam of 11-6 teams would see Tampa wiggle its way into first place. Math be damned.
- The Cardinals and Rams will likely have to unseat the Seahawks to clinch a playoff berth. Arizona will have its best chance to do so on Sunday in the second leg of its season series with Seattle. With three division tilts left, including matchups with the Cards and Seahawks, the Rams could still find themselves repping the West in January -- even if they come up short against the Bills this weekend.
- Fourth-quarter collapses, injuries and a gnarly second-half schedule have relegated last year's runner-up to disappointing also-ran status. The Niners could still make some noise in the NFC, with two high-leverage games against division opponents (Week 15: vs. Rams; Week 18: at Cardinals) offering possible inroads back into contention. This team needs a heaping helping of good fortune to get into the tournament -- but the only luck it seems to be getting these days is of the bad variety.
So you're saying there's a chance ...
(Teams with less than 10% probability to earn a playoff spot.)
- Joe Burrow's Bengals are hanging on by the thinnest of threads entering Week 14. With zero wins against any of the nine teams ahead of them, a miserable 2-6 mark in the conference and losses to the Steelers, Ravens (twice) and Chargers anchoring them to the fringe, the Bengals' only real (and I'm using that term loosely) opportunity to crack the top seven is by unseating Denver in the standings. To do so, they'll have to at least hit the eight-win mark (but more likely nine), with one of those W's coming against the Broncos in Week 17. Cincinnati also has to worry about Indy making a move, but that's a problem for another day. In the more immediate term, the Bengals and Colts are frenemies with a common goal: destroy Denver.
- The Browns, Jets and Titans are all one loss away from joining the trio in the section below.
AFC teams eliminated from playoff contention:
- New England Patriots (3-10)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
- With the seventh-seeded Commanders on a bye, the Saints can stave off elimination from the wild-card race for at least one more week -- even if they were to lose to the Giants on Sunday. However, If the Saints were to beat New York, they'd be a Week 15 win over the Commanders away from narrowing the divide to just two games! How about that? I should probably mention New Orleans would then have just three games left to make up the difference. But who's counting? In any case, it could be worse for the Saints; they could be the ...
- ... Bears. Thomas Brown faces a must-win scenario in his debut as interim head coach, with a loss at San Francisco in Week 14 basically eliminating Chicago from the playoff race. I say basically because there’s at least one miracle-lined path for the Bears to make it with an 8-9 record, but it involves an improbable confluence of collapses by multiple teams, including the Commanders, Cardinals and Buccaneers. So, yeah, Chicago definitely needs to win up in the Bay.
- In terms of official elimination scenarios, the Panthers (with a loss and Falcons win) are the only NFC team that can be knocked out of playoff contention for good this week.
NFC teams eliminated from playoff contention:
- New York Giants (2-10)
Who's most likely to win each division?
(Teams that have been mathematically eliminated from their divisional races are not included below.)
- Hey, what do you know, the Steelers are back to being the favorites. ... I warned you weeks ago this race was going to be stressful. Speaking of stressful, Baltimore has a Justin Tucker problem on its hands. The All-Pro kicker's inconsistency has already cost the Ravens crucial games; if it continues, seeding and/or a division title could be next.
- Shane Steichen's bold decision to go for two and the win on Sunday could be the inflection point that ultimately leads Indy into the playoffs. By escaping New England with the dub, the Colts kept alive the chance to clinch a playoff berth via a wild-card slot or as AFC South champs. To achieve the latter, though, they'd need a fair amount of help. Down two games and the season series to Houston, Indy will need to continue amassing wins and hope the Texans drop at least three of their next four games -- which isn't that implausible when you look at Houston's upcoming schedule. The Texans will likely be underdogs at Kansas City and against Baltimore, while games against Miami and Tennessee (who's already beaten Houston once this season) are far from sure things.
- Amazingly, the Titans still have a shot at the division title, too. They'd have to win out, the Texans would have to lose out and the Colts would need to finish 8-9 or worse. That's a lot to ask, I know, but at least the Titans have some say in this unlikely outcome, with one game apiece against Indy and Houston still to play. With the Colts and Texans off, Tennessee can survive into Week 15 by beating Jacksonville at home on Sunday.
- This one is pretty straightforward: The Chiefs will clinch their ninth consecutive division title by defeating the Chargers on Sunday night.
- The Eagles boast the highest division win probability of the seven remaining front-runners, with their 2.5-game lead and Week 11 win over Washington pinning the needle firmly in Philly's favor. Even if the Eagles were to fall to the Panthers on Sunday, it would merely delay the inevitable. Philly could still beat Pittsburgh in Week 15 to set up a clinching scenario at Washington the following Sunday.
- Dallas can officially stop production on a 2024 division banner if the Eagles beat the Panthers. But as of this moment, the Cowboys still have a three in 10,000 chance of defending their title. The sequence of events that would bring a Dallas-fan fever dream to fruition is actually fairly easy to follow (despite being completely bonkers): The Cowboys would need to win their final five games, see the Eagles lose the rest of theirs and have the Commanders cap their campaign at 10-7 or worse. If all three teams finish at 10-7, signaling the league has descended into madness, the Cowboys win the East behind a 5-1 division record.
- The division widely regarded as the best in football entering the season, is, unquestionably, the best division in football nearly three-quarters of the way through. Sometimes things actually are as they appear. With a one-game lead, and wins over the Vikings and Packers already secured, the North is still the Lions' to lose. But injuries are mounting in Detroit -- particularly on defense. And on a short week, against one of the more physical teams in the NFL, those missing pieces could finally catch up with Dan Campbell's bunch. Should the Packers prevail at Ford Field on Thursday night (a must if Green Bay hopes to stay in the division race) and the surging Bills do the same in Week 15, Detroit's plans for Super Wild Card Weekend could look significantly different than they do now.
- Entering Week 11, Atlanta held a two-game lead over Tampa in the South with a 55-point difference in division win probability (77% to 22%). Three Falcons losses later, and, well, the table tells the story. If Atlanta can't end its skid STAT, the team's season sweep of the Bucs might not even matter. Kirk Cousins won a ton of games at U.S. Bank Stadium during his six seasons in Minnesota, including his final start in front of the Vikings faithful. Now, he'll need to silence the SKOL chants Sunday to keep the Bucs at bay. Tampa, meanwhile, will play host to the Raiders, who haven't won in more than two months. But if the Bucs learned anything from last week's overtime scare in Carolina, they can ill-afford to overlook anybody on their schedule.
- Seahawks-Cardinals is by far the most consequential matchup in the NFL this week, carrying a whopping 50 points in leverage for both teams. To put that figure in perspective, only one other team's Week 14 leverage eclipses even 30 points (the Bucs, at 32). While a loss would be crushing for Seattle, it would be close to season-ending for Arizona. The Cardinals, already at a disadvantage in the wild-card race because of losses to Washington, Green Bay and Minnesota, would essentially be three games behind Seattle in the division with four left on the schedule.
ALREADY CLINCHED
10-2 · AFC EAST
Jack Andrade and Dante Koplowitz-Fleming contributed to this story.