Entering Week 15 of the 2024 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.
A few notes before we dig in:
- All probabilities presented are current as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Dec. 10 unless otherwise noted below.
- Terms defined:
- If win: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in its upcoming game.
- If lose: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in its upcoming game.
- Playoff leverage: Refers to the quantifiable impact of a single game on a team's playoff prospects. It is calculated as the difference between a team's probability of making the playoffs if it wins the upcoming game versus if it loses. This metric essentially captures the stakes of a game in terms of playoff qualification. A high playoff leverage indicates that the outcome of the game has a significant influence on the team's playoff chances, making it a critical matchup, whereas a low playoff leverage suggests that the game has a lesser impact on the team's playoff probabilities.
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AFC playoff picture entering Week 15
- Another week, another anxiety-ridden win for Kansas City. Considering the wild finishes the Chiefs have endured this season, did anyone really think Patrick Mahomes & Friends could be derailed by a doink? Of course not. No. 15 always gets the bounce. Them's the rules. In outlasting the Chargers on Sunday night -- with the help of the team's third-string kicker -- Kansas City clinched its ninth consecutive division title and took a significant step toward securing the AFC's No. 1 seed. The Chiefs' habit of winning ugly might catch up with them at some point this season, but if (when?) it does, it likely won't be enough to cost them a first-round bye (... just possibly a chance at a three-peat).
- Buffalo's defensive meltdown at SoFi Stadium on Sunday not only spoiled Josh Allen's historic day but dropped the Bills to two games behind the Chiefs in the race for the one seed -- a deficit that feels increasingly insurmountable (even with the H2H tie-breaker already secured), given that the cosmic scales seem ever-slanted in Kansas City's favor. With a trip to Detroit up next, Buffalo is in real danger of going backward in the conference pecking order. A similar sieve-like showing from Sean McDermott's defense at Ford Field -- where the Lions are averaging 35 points, tied for the best home-field mark in the league -- paired with a Steelers win at Philadelphia could cause Buffalo to slide to the No. 3 seed. How these two AFC juggernauts fare against their NFC counterparts this weekend could have major implications for the competition to hold home-field advantage deep into the playoffs.
- Although the Steelers face a couple different clinching scenarios in Week 15, the simplest to remember might also be the hardest to achieve: Pittsburgh secures its postseason spot with a win over the Eagles at the Linc.
- In a week absolutely loaded with meaningful matchups, there isn't a more consequential game to the AFC playoff picture than Colts-Broncos, which carries a ridiculous 40-plus-point leverage for both squads. It's Indy's best (and final) chance to directly narrow the chasm in the Wild Card Race. The lack of additional high-leverage games for the Colts is softened by the fact that their final three contests are against teams that have already been eliminated from playoff contention (Titans, at Giants, Jaguars).
- As far as byes go, John Harbaugh had a pretty good week off. Too bad it was at the expense of his younger brother. By failing to close out the Chiefs on Sunday, the Chargers fell into a tie with the Ravens and Broncos; Baltimore emerges from that three-way deadlock in possession of the No. 5 seed thanks to its more favorable conference record (5-4) and victory in Week 12's HarBowl.
- Miami and Cincinnati would be thrilled to see the three 8-5 wild-card teams 86'd on Sunday. But even if things break just right for the Dolphins and Bengals in Week 15, their roads back to relevance remain as complex as they are improbable. All of Cincinnati's crushing one-score losses to AFC contenders have come home to roost ...
AFC teams eliminated from playoff contention:
- Cleveland Browns (3-10)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
- New York Jets (3-10)
- Tennessee Titans (3-10)
- New England Patriots (3-10)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
NFC playoff picture entering Week 15
- Detroit became the first NFC team to clinch a playoff berth this season after downing the Packers in walk-off fashion last Thursday. But I doubt Dan Campbell and Co. spent much time celebrating during the team's mini-bye, knowing Josh Allen and the Bills are on deck. It seems like no matter who's up next or what misfortune befalls these Lions, the team answers with vigor, urgency and relentless aggression. Their consistency and scrappiness in the face of adversity makes their three-year climb from the bottom of the conference to the top (well, not quite there, but almost!) that much more impressive and easy to root for ...
- ... Unless you're a fan of the No. 1-seed-seeking Eagles or Vikings, in which case you'd probably be just fine if the Lions lost their bite at least once over the next few weeks. Unlike Philly, Minnesota -- which hits the weekend with a win-and-in opportunity versus Chicago -- still has a H2H against Detroit (Week 18) through which it can directly improve its station. Unfortunately, also unlike the Eagles, the Vikings have the fourth-hardest remaining strength of schedule in the league -- ranking just above the Lions (tied for fifth). The Eagles' slate, meanwhile, ranks in the middle of the pack, with their opponents over the next two weeks (Steelers, at Commanders) likely to cause them more problems than their two to close (Cowboys, Giants). Then again, Philly nearly came unglued against the three-win Panthers on Sunday, so we'll avoid assigning W's until the final whistle.
- Any problems the playoff-bound Eagles might think they have pale in comparison to the sudden uncertainty swirling over Washington. Imagine you're enjoying a much-needed week off when you learn most of your work enemies (the 49ers, Buccaneers, Rams and Vikings) are prospering in your absence. Not cool. Of that group of Week 14 winners, the Rams pose the biggest threat to the Commanders clinching a playoff berth (assuming Tampa, which beat Washington on the opening weekend of the season, maintains its hold on the South). Commanders coach Dan Quinn says he's not worried about various postseason scenarios, focused only on one game at a time. Well, right now, that "one game" should be Rams-49ers on Thursday night. What better way for Washington to start its weekend than to know both of those West teams are 7-7? (To answer my own question, a tie in that game would, in fact, be better for Quinn's crew. But this isn't the time to get greedy.)
- Sunday's Packers-Seahawks showdown could very well serve as a Super Wild Card Weekend preview. That might not have been the case had Green Bay held on in Detroit last Thursday ... but any realistic shot the Pack had at clinching the NFC North, a first-round bye or a home playoff game faded with Jake Bates' game-winning field goal. And unless this Thursday's game ends in a Rams-49ers tie (this again?), the Packers will be waiting at least another week for a chance to punch their playoff ticket.
- Brutal beat for Dallas on Monday night. If any team deserved a bounce finally going its way, it was the Bengals, but the Cowboys certainly don't want to hear that. A 10-7 mark and a reasonable amount of help might've gotten the 'Boys in the dance. But with eight losses already on their ledger, the 13th-seeded Cowboys are merely playing out the string.
- I'll dive a little deeper into the South and West teams still in contention in the division section below. But as for my beloved Bears, I fear they've reached the end of the road. Their elimination scenarios this week are plentiful and simple (including a Chicago loss OR Washington win), making it a near certainty their role will be relegated to spoiler down the stretch.
NFC teams eliminated from playoff contention:
- New York Giants (2-11)
Who's most likely to win each division?
(Teams that have been mathematically eliminated from their divisional races are not included below.)
- Despite the Steelers' two-game edge over the Ravens and a 42-point difference in win probability, this race is far from finished. Just six days after Sunday's game at Philadelphia, the Steelers head to Baltimore for Round 2 of the season series. Four days after that, the Chiefs come to town. Three of the best the NFL has to offer within a 10-day stretch. Mike Tomlin's not one to complain or make excuses. He relishes the competition. After all, the standard is the standard -- no matter the circumstance. But damn that's a brutal slate to wrap December. Baltimore, meanwhile, returns from the bye to a Giants team that hasn't won since Oct. 6. Buckle up!
- And then there were two. Tennessee's long-shot comeback bid ended unceremoniously after the team's disappointing 10-6 loss at home to the Jags. Although the Titans are officially out, they could still be relevant in this race, as long as it doesn't end this weekend with a Houston win and an Indianapolis loss. To overtake Houston, the Colts need to make up three games over the final four weeks (because the Texans own the H2H tie-breaker). That would be an extremely tall order if not for the fact that the Texans will be without their defensive signal-caller for their next three games -- all against AFC heavyweights or hopefuls. If Houston takes even two of those three, the competition is over, regardless of what the Colts do. But if the Texans manage only a single win over that stretch (and, again, Indy holds off Denver on Sunday), there's a possibility Houston would need to beat the Titans in Week 18 to clinch the South. Indy will likely need to win out for any of this to matter, and that includes topping Tennessee in Week 16. Still, a bit of drama remains in the South, which is all any of us without a colt in this race can hope for at this juncture.
- Philly hits the quarter pole with at least one immediate and straightforward way to secure the division by Sunday night: Eagles win + Commanders loss. Had Carolina closed the deal at Philadelphia on Sunday, this race might've still had some juice -- considering the Eagles host Pittsburgh (10-3) this weekend before visiting Washington in Week 16. But barring one of the most shocking final months in division history, the Eagles will be the 2024 NFC East champs in short order.
- For all intents and purposes, the North has been narrowed down to a two-team race between Detroit and Minnesota. The Lions remain the heavy favorite for a combination of reasons, with their one-game advantage in the win-loss department taking centerstage. Less obvious, though, is why the Lions would still win the North even if they and the Vikings both finished the season tied at 15-2 (meaning Minnesota would have won the rematch in Week 18). In that scenario, the Lions and Vikings would have identical head-to-head, division and conference marks. The next tie-breaker in the sequence, then, would be record against common opponents. And while the Lions beat the Rams to open the season, the Vikings fell to L.A. in dramatic fashion on a Thursday night in October. Yep, the "facemask game." Because of the Lions' cushion, the Vikings will probably need their current six-game winning streak to extend to nine, plus a bit of help, for their regular-season finale in Detroit to double as a title bout.
- I mentioned a few weeks ago that if the Falcons lost even two of their final six games, they'd give Tampa the lane it needed to reenter this race. Well, don't say I didn't warn ya. Still, despite Atlanta's current four-game skid, the team's outlook isn't actually that bleak. After all, their season sweep of the Bucs means all the Falcons have to do is tie Tampa at the top of the NFC South table to guarantee a spot in the final postseason field. On paper, Week 15 presents the best opportunity for Atlanta to get even, with the Bucs visiting a physical and well-coached Chargers team while the Falcons travel to Vegas to take on a 2-11 Raiders squad that Tampa just beat by 15 points. If both teams were to lose, however, that would open the possibility for the improbable ...
- While the math has stripped the Panthers of any hope, I'm here to bring some optimism to this bunch. At least until about 4 p.m. ET on Sunday. Putting the Saints to the side for a second, this feisty Panthers squad can survive into Week 16 with a win over the Cowboys, a Bucs loss at the Chargers and a Falcons loss to the Raiders. If Carolina can then go three for three to close the campaign while the Bucs and Falcons lose out and the Derek Carr-less Saints drop their next three, the 7-10 Panthers would clinch the NFC South behind a 3-3 division record. Everybody loves a good underdog story -- so can we all agree to throw our collective weight behind this implausible (but incredible) scenario?
- The Seahawks' resounding win at Arizona on Sunday provided a sizable boost to their playoff and division win probabilities, but the Rams' stunning upset of the Bills mitigated what could've been a truly celebratory weekend in Seattle. With back-to-back tilts against NFC North dynamos on the docket, Seattle's one game-lead over L.A. offers the thinnest of cushions -- especially when you factor in Seattle already being 0-1 versus the Rams this year. Clearly, the Seahawks would prefer that six-win San Francisco prevails over L.A. on Thursday night, having already split the season series with the Niners while outperforming them, to this point, in the division (3-2 vs. 1-3). But I doubt the 'Hawks will be feeling good about the reigning champs ripping off two in a row, either.
- The Cardinals have only themselves to blame for their recent slide out of the playoff picture. Still, a sliver of hope remains in the desert. To sneak their way back into the frame, they'll likely need both the Packers and Vikings to do them a solid in Seattle over the next two weeks. And that seems only fair, considering those two North teams have already worked the rest of the division this year (5-1 vs. the NFC West).
ALREADY CLINCHED
10-3 · AFC EAST
12-1 · AFC West
Jack Andrade and Dante Koplowitz-Fleming contributed to this story.