NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 16 of 2024 season

Entering Week 16 of the 2024 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.

A few notes before we dig in:

1. All probabilities presented are current as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Dec. 17 unless otherwise noted below.
2. Terms defined:
   • If win: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in its upcoming game.
   • If lose: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in its upcoming game.
   • Playoff leverage: Refers to the quantifiable impact of a single game on a team's playoff prospects. It is calculated as the difference between a team's probability of making the playoffs if it wins the upcoming game versus if it loses. This metric essentially captures the stakes of a game in terms of playoff qualification. A high playoff leverage indicates that the outcome of the game has a significant influence on the team's playoff chances, making it a critical matchup, whereas a low playoff leverage suggests that the game has a lesser impact on the team's playoff probabilities.

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• Division races

AFC playoff picture entering Week 16

• Four spots set, three to go. But as you can see by the percentages above, the teams that make up the current AFC playoff picture will likely be the ones comprising the final picture, as well. The order of the teams, however, has the potential to look very different in three weeks' time.
• Let's start at the top, shall we? The Chiefs continue to reign above the rest, at least for now. Despite tacking on win No. 13 on Sunday -- by their largest margin of the season (14 points) -- Kansas City's probability to earn the No. 1 seed remains nearly identical to what it was a week ago. Why? Because of the Buffalo Bills, scheduling and Patrick Mahomes' ankle. The Bills, who own the head-to-head tie-breaker over K.C., just aced their NFC final at Ford Field, leaving the Jets and Patriots (twice) as their two remaining opponents of the regular season. As I routinely note, division games have the potential to spark supreme weirdness. But Buffalo, barring catastrophe, will be the overwhelming favorite in each of its final three games, meaning a 14-3 mark is well within reach. Kansas City, meanwhile, will meet the AFC South champs on Saturday, then head to Pittsburgh on Wednesday before ending the season at Denver in Week 18. That's 28 combined wins standing in the Chiefs' way -- four times as many as the Jets and Pats have totaled this year. And then there's Mahomes' ankle sprain muddying matters even further. But as crummy and uncertain as things currently look for K.C. (relatively speaking, of course), there appears to be some wizardry at work here ... after all, the Chiefs are still just two wins away from their magic number to secure the one seed: 15. We already know how well the Chiefs and No. 15 go together, but consider this: Andy Reid could earn his first 15-win season in the same 12-month period the Chiefs ripped off a franchise-best 15 consecutive victories (going back to 2023) and captured their 15th division title (since the AFL-NFL merger). Kismet in Kansas City?
• Now that I've taken you down that rabbit hole, how about something a little more straightforward: If the Bills can't overcome the odds to win the conference, they'll almost certainly finish as the AFC's No. 2 seed. That means they'll play at least one playoff game at Highmark Stadium, where Josh Allen has yet to lose this season (6-0).
• Despite getting throttled by the Eagles, being relegated to also-ran in the race for the one seed (89 in 10,000) and losing ground to the Ravens in the AFC North, Week 15 was pretty good to Pittsburgh. The Steelers clinched their 12th playoff berth under Mike Tomlin's stewardship, thanks to losses by both the Dolphins and Colts. They'll now travel to Baltimore for a Saturday night showdown with significant division and conference-seeding implications. We'll dig more into the AFC North aspect of things below, but if the Steelers want to retain any hope of landing the No. 2 seed (and prevent any possible slippage to No. 4 or worse), they'll almost certainly need to win their next three games.
• The Ravens, who have yet to even clinch a playoff berth (they can do so with a win Saturday night), are nearly as likely to finish the campaign as the second seed (2.4%) as they are the seventh (3.6%). Talk about stakes! With games against Pittsburgh and Houston over the next two weeks, the Ravens could simultaneously punch their ticket, reclaim the AFC North lead and create some separation from their biggest rival for the three seed. And, because of their Week 4 win over Buffalo, the Ravens could even overtake the Bills at No. 2 -- under the right conditions. However, the difficulty of Baltimore's schedule cuts both ways; the Ravens could just as well find themselves entering Week 18 at 9-7, still jostling with the other wild cards for positioning.
• Thursday Night Football's exciting run of massively important games continues this week with Broncos-Chargers. There are a lot of complicated variables involving this matchup, but here are the two most basic things to know: A Denver win would guarantee the franchise its first playoff berth since the team's 2015 Super Bowl season, while a Chargers win would check one of the three boxes they need to clinch in Week 16 (Colts and Dolphins must lose, too).
• ... OK, now for (some) of the complexities: The 6-8 Bengals want the 8-6 Chargers -- not the 9-5 Broncos -- to win Thursday night. I know that might seem counterintuitive, as an L.A. loss would bring the Bolts' record closer to Cincinnati's (with a win over Cleveland). But the Chargers will be heavy favorites against their final two opponents (the Pats and Raiders), which means they're projected to finish with at least nine overall wins (and seven in the AFC) regardless of what happens on Thursday. If a playoff spot in the AFC comes down to the nine-win Chargers or nine-win Bengals, L.A. would get in, thanks to its Week 11 win versus Cincinnati. The Broncos, on the other hand, follow up Thursday's tilt with games against Cincinnati (great for the Bengals!) and top-seeded Kansas City, and if a playoff spot comes down to them or the Bengals and both teams have nine wins, Cincinnati would get in. In other words, the Bengals have more hope of catching the Broncos in the wild-card race than they do the Chargers -- provided Denver doesn't get to win No. 10 this week. All of this becomes moot, of course, if the Bengals don't beat the Browns on Sunday to remain in contention.
• And now for the inverse: The 6-8 Colts want the 9-5 Broncos -- not the 8-6 Chargers -- to win Thursday night. One week after Denver effectively ended Indy's season, the Colts will now be the Broncos' biggest cheerleaders. The least improbable scenario that still involves Indy playing on Super Wild Card Weekend begins with Denver beating the Bolts on Thursday. If the Chargers were to then lose at least one of their two remaining games while the Colts won out, Indy would replace L.A. in the playoff field on the back of a better conference record.

AFC teams eliminated from playoff contention:

• New York Jets (4-10)
• Cleveland Browns (3-11)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11)
• Tennessee Titans (3-11)
• New England Patriots (3-11)
• Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

NFC playoff picture entering Week 16

• The race for the NFC's one seed has quickly become a battle of attrition, with Detroit needing to fend off Philadelphia and Minnesota for three more weeks while dealing with an ever-growing list of season-ending injuries. The fallout from the Lions' disastrous Week 15 includes, among many pain points, seeing their conference win probability plummet to basically a coin flip -- its lowest percentage since at least Week 11. With Dan Campbell and Co. needing the first-round bye more than ever, I don't see them leaving this race to chance. Expect the Lions to continue to be aggressive as they attempt to maintain some semblance of control.
• As brutal as the week was for Detroit, it was equally (and oppositely) massive for Minnesota. The Vikings clinched a playoff berth before they even kicked off on Monday night, and by the time they were done dominating their division rival, they'd drawn even with Detroit at 12-2. Although Minnesota is more likely to win the NFC North (27%) than the conference overall (18%), the Vikings do have a fairly clear route to the top of the NFC table.
• To keep the NFC North analysis flowing, here's a quick Packers update: Green Bay can clinch a playoff appearance -- the team's fifth in six seasons under Matt LaFleur -- by beating the Saints on Monday Night Football. Though the Pack might not have to wait that long. There are actually a couple scenarios that would guarantee Green Bay's spot in the final seven by Sunday night, with both requiring the Falcons to lose.
• Add Washington to the list of teams hoping the Falcons flop this weekend. For the Commanders to earn a GA ticket into the show, they'll need a win, an Atlanta loss and either a Rams or Seahawks loss (excluding ties). Getting to double-digit wins won't do the trick on its own this week, but it sure would be quite the achievement for the new Washington regime.
• It's hard being No. 2. Few know that better than the Bills and Eagles, who have been chilling in the runner-up position for weeks now. But thanks to a little two-seed love this past weekend, both teams enter Week 16 in better shape than they were seven days ago. Even if neither club is able to pull off a conference coup by season's end, they both now have basically 2:1 odds of retaining their current spots in the playoff picture. That means at least one playoff game in both Buffalo and Philadelphia (with the potential for more, if things keep trending south for the Chiefs and Lions.)
• The Bucs won their fourth straight Sunday, jumping into the three seed. How that team could beat the Lions, Eagles and Commanders but lose to the Falcons twice is one of the great mysteries of the 2024 season ...
• ... Speaking of mysteries, how are the Cowboys still in this thing?! Credit Mike McCarthy and Mike Zimmer for keeping Dallas relevant late into December despite losing Dak Prescott to a season-ending injury more than six weeks ago. The 'Boys play host to the Bucs on Sunday night in a must-win for Dallas and a desperately-need-it for Tampa. A Cowboys loss or a Commanders win (vs. Philly) knocks Dallas out of contention for good, while a Bucs slip-up would re-open the door for Atlanta in the South.
• More on the NFC South and West teams in the division sections. But here's something I never would've imagined being true when the season started: The reigning NFC champion 49ers enter Week 16 with multiple elimination scenarios, including by simply losing.

NFC teams eliminated from playoff contention:

• Chicago Bears (4-10)
• Carolina Panthers (3-11)
• New York Giants (2-12)

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Who's most likely to win each division?

(Teams that have been mathematically eliminated from their divisional races are not included below.)

• The final AFC division race could be called as early as Saturday night if Pittsburgh beats Baltimore. And you know Mike Tomlin would take great pleasure in securing the division title on his rival's home turf. But even if things don't go Pittsburgh's way during this short-week clash -- and they might not, considering the numerous injuries the team is battling -- the Steelers would still retain the top spot in the North entering Week 17. It's the reason Pittsburgh currently sports a strong 64 percent division win probability. It all boils down to conference records. Although a Baltimore win this weekend would even up these two contenders' marks, both overall and in the division, as well as the season series, it would still leave the Ravens one game shy of the Steelers in AFC play (6-4 vs. 7-3). So, essentially, Pittsburgh has a slight margin for error regardless of Saturday's outcome, while the Ravens are in gotta-have-it mode.

• By surviving the Saints' fourth-quarter rally on Sunday (along with a clock miscue), Washington prolonged this race into Week 16. But make no mistake, this contest is not too close to call. One Eagles win (or Commanders loss) over the next three weeks will trigger a key-race alert. In fact, the Commanders face the very real possibility that their home stadium will serve as the Eagles' clinching site. I'm sure that little nugget will be part of Dan Quinn's pre-game power point presentation this week.

• You asked for a chance, Vikings fans, and you got it -- courtesy of your friends in Upstate New York. Now that Detroit has logged its second loss of the campaign, the Vikings can claim the NFC North outright by beating the 'Hawks, Packers and Lions (in Detroit) in consecutive weeks. Simple stuff. Should Minnesota end up winning the division, I think a sizable charitable donation from the SKOL squad in Josh Allen's name would be appropriate. Could say it's on behalf of the league's MVP. What do y'all think?
• Green Bay, while not yet eliminated from division contention, has significantly less say over its NFC North fate than either Detroit or Minnesota -- even with a matchup with the Vikings still on tap. Because the Lions have already swept the Packers this season, Green Bay must finish with a better overall record than Detroit. In other words, the Pack have to win out and the Lions have to lose out for Matt LaFleur's squad to even have a chance at becoming division champs -- and then there's Minnesota to worry about.

• EDITOR'S UPDATE: The Falcons announced Tuesday night that rookie Michael Penix Jr. will replace Kirk Cousins as the team's QB1 moving forward. About 30 minutes after the announcement, Atlanta's overall playoff probability decreased to 30% (from 35%), while the team's division win probability dropped to 23% (from 26%).
• The Bucs and Falcons offenses are operating on opposite ends of the efficiency spectrum right now, and yet, little separates these two squads in the South standings. Atlanta, despite all of its deficiencies, remains only one Bucs mistake away from regaining possession of the division lead -- thanks to their H2H tiebreaker. Tampa's upcoming tilt at Dallas -- its final game away from Raymond James Stadium this season -- projects as the team's toughest remaining test, while the Falcons still have to play at Washington in Week 17. The Bucs, of course, would love to wrap things up before Week 18. But as of now, they'll need to win out to guarantee themselves entry into this year's tournament.
• Atlanta's 30-point leverage this week is the highest of any non-eliminated team in the league. A loss wouldn't rule them out of the playoffs entirely, but if paired with wins by the Bucs and Commanders, the Dirty Birds would essentially be down for the count.
• The Saints have already been eliminated from wild-card contention, making the division their only possible ticket into the dance -- and they would be eliminated from that race with a loss Monday. To hit the NFC South lottery, New Orleans would have to win out and Tampa and Atlanta would both have to lose out, which would create a tie between the Saints and Bucs atop the standings. In that scenario, New Orleans would advance via division record (3-3 vs. 2-4). If you followed all of that, you're probably not surprised to learn the model projected this outcome in just one of its 10,000 simulations.

• ... The Rams sit alone atop the NFC West standings for the first time this season -- a true feat, considering the team's 1-4 start to the campaign. To get here, they've had to win seven of their last nine, including last Thursday's messy affair in San Francisco. To stay here, well, they can guarantee that by finishing three for three. But with high-leverage divisional games against Arizona (who's already up 1-0 in the season series) and Seattle still to come, plus a potential trap at the Meadowlands this weekend, the Rams' straight-line path into the playoffs seems anything but simple.
• The Seahawks' letdown against the Packers on Sunday night knocked Seattle out of the division lead, removed an NFC playoff spot from the board and added to the NFC West's season-long subjugation to the North (3-10). It was a rough week for the seabirds, made worse by Geno Smith's knee injury, which could affect his ability, if not his availability, going forward. But hope remains for Seattle in the form of its upcoming schedule. All three of the West's wins against the North this year have come against either the Vikings (1) or Bears (2). And guess who Seattle gets to play over the next two weeks before meeting the Rams in the season finale? I realize facing a 12-2 team isn't exactly good news, but I'm working with what I got here. Seattle might no longer be in the position of strength it was in seven days ago, but fortunes can change fast in this league. Just ask ...
• ... the 49ers, who, less than 12 months removed from a Super Bowl appearance, enter Week 16 with a division win probability of 0.0%. It's not over 'til it's over ... but it's over.

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Jack Andrade and Dante Koplowitz-Fleming contributed to this story.