All wins are good wins, but some wins are better than others. With just three weeks left in the regular season, and playoff spots and seedings very much at stake, Sunday's slate provided prime examples of how one result can swing an entire season. There are plenty of results we’ll look back on after the year and wonder, What if? What if the Bengals hadn’t started so slowly? What if Tua Tagovailoa hadn’t missed time with a concussion? What if the Atlanta Falcons had gone to Michael Penix Jr. earlier or Dak Prescott hadn’t gotten hurt?
We’ll never know. What we do know are the most consequential results from Sunday and what they mean for the final fortnight of the regular season.
1) The Commanders beat the Eagles, 36-33. The Commanders’ stunning comeback win over the Eagles -- they had five giveaways in the game and scored the game-winning touchdown with six seconds remaining -- rippled through the entire NFC field.
For starters, it eliminated the Cowboys from playoff contention.
It gave the Commanders, now at 10-5, some breathing room in the NFC wild-card race and made the Falcons’ path to the playoffs more difficult. With the Falcons demolishing the Giants in Penix’s debut, had the Commanders lost, the Falcons-Commanders game next Sunday would have given the Falcons the chance to catch the Commanders in the conference standings. Now, the Commanders have a two-game lead over the Falcons and Seahawks (who lost to the Vikings on Sunday) for the seventh seed. If the Packers lose to the Saints on Monday night, the Commanders would move up to the sixth seed. The Commanders play the Cowboys in the final weekend of the season, and the Falcons play the Carolina Panthers, who eliminated the Arizona Cardinals from playoff contention with their overtime win Sunday.
Finally, the loss is problematic for the Eagles, who failed to clinch the NFC East. They dropped one game behind the Lions (who beat the Bears) for the NFC’s top seed and, most worrisome, they lost quarterback Jalen Hurts to a concussion, and the offense mostly ground to a halt with Kenny Pickett in his place. The Eagles have already clinched a playoff spot, but Hurts’ importance to the Eagles’ fortunes was obvious in his absence. The Eagles face the Cowboys next Sunday, and Hurts’ availability will be one of the top stories of the week.
2) The Bengals beat the Browns to set up a very important Saturday afternoon game against the Broncos with the AFC’s seventh wild-card spot on the line. The Bengals have won three straight to keep their playoff hopes alive in a season so good by Joe Burrow that if the Bengals had a winning record, he might be the league MVP. He is the first player in NFL history to have at least 250 passing yards and at least three passing touchdowns in seven consecutive games. The Broncos are currently in the seventh playoff spot, with nine wins. A Bengals victory next Saturday would give them eight wins and apply a lot of pressure to the Broncos going into Week 18, when the Broncos host the Chiefs and the Bengals play at the Steelers. The Colts and Dolphins also are 7-8.
The Broncos haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the Bucs in September. The Bengals don’t have a winning record, but their offense plays like they do -- the Bengals have scored at least 24 points in seven straight games. The question is whether Cincinnati's defense, which has feasted on lesser quarterbacks during the three-game winning streak, can hold up against Bo Nix.
The Bengals must win their final two games to have any chance at making the playoffs.
3) The race for the NFC North may also be the race for the NFC’s top seed, and it could go down to the final game of the season. The Lions' victory over the Bears combined with the Vikings' victory over the Seahawks left the NFC North rivals at 13-2, the best records in the NFC. The Eagles' loss to the Commanders dropped them one game behind in the NFC standings. The Lions play at the 49ers next week, and the Vikings host the Packers. And then, in a game that could very well decide the NFC North and the NFC’s top seed, the Lions and Vikings meet on the final Sunday of the season, in a game that has a chance to be moved to Sunday night. The winner could get a week off and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The loser could be the NFC’s top wild-card team.
4) The NFC West is a two-team race, and the Rams are in control. For the second straight game, the Rams’ defense allowed fewer than 10 points. Los Angeles started the season 1-4 and a month ago, it was 5-6. But the Rams' receivers got healthy and Sunday’s victory over the Jets, the Rams’ fourth in a row, gave them nine wins. Combined with the Seahawks’ loss to the Vikings, the Rams now have a one-game lead in the West. The Cardinals, who earlier in the season appeared to be the team to beat, were eliminated with an overtime loss to the Panthers. The Rams finish with two games at home -- against the already-eliminated Cardinals and, in Week 18, against the Seahawks. The Rams won their first meeting.
5) The Giants are two weeks away from being on the clock. In the result we’ll be talking a lot about in the spring, the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Jacksonville Jaguars to give them three victories. That’s one more than the New York Giants, who lost to the Atlanta Falcons to remain the NFL’s only two-win team. The Giants are in the driver’s seat for the first overall draft pick and the 2025 quarterback prospect of their choice. The Giants finish against the Colts and Eagles, while the Raiders have the Saints and Chargers. In a bleak season, this counts as good news for the Giants.
6) The Bucs' loss to the Cowboys on Sunday night, combined with the Falcons win earlier in the day over the Giants in Michael Penix Jr’s debut, shifts control of the NFC South to the Falcons, despite a four-game losing streak that cost Kirk Cousins the starting job last week. The Bucs and Falcons are both 8-7, but if they finish the season with the same record, the Falcons would win the division because they swept the two games head-to-head with the Bucs. The Bucs finish with home games against the Panthers and Saints. The Falcons are at Washington next Sunday and home against Carolina in the regular-season finale.
It would be a remarkable recovery for the Falcons, who seemed to have control of the division earlier in the season, when the Bucs endured their own four-game losing streak, only to lose it, in part because of Cousins’ extended slump that coincided with the Bucs four-game winning streak.
One note on the Cowboys: They were eliminated from playoff contention earlier in the day when the Commanders won. But the effort they showed against the Bucs in a game that no longer mattered -- including CeeDee Lamb playing with an injured shoulder -- may be important when owner Jerry Jones decides Mike McCarthy’s future at the end of the season.