NFL Power Rankings: Who's up/down after draft?

When Xavier Worthy blazed a record-setting 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, there was a slew of "Worthy to the Chiefs!" tweets. And what do you know? The NFL let it happen. Worthy, to me, is DeSean Jackson 2.0. I was hoping that the Chiefs would supplement what they added with the Hollywood Brown signing, and they've done just that with the Worthy pick, even if there is some overlap in the two receivers' games. That's fine. Is anyone -- beyond Chiefs opponents -- really grumbling about another deep threat being gifted to Patrick Mahomes? Kansas City also checked off two more boxes by bolstering the O-line and secondary. I have no good reason to drop the defending Super Bowl champions from the top spot.

I thought there was a chance Ricky Pearsall could be a top-40 selection, so the Florida receiver going to the 49ers at No. 31 isn't the reach some want to make it. In fact, I had him ranked as my No. 31 overall prospect. Even still, you can't analyze this pick fairly without mentioning the receiver drama, which has ensnared Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. At first, the Niners were dealing with Aiyuk and his contract demands; then Deebo's name surfaced in some interesting trade rumors as the draft was unfolding. So here we are, and it's not clear what the next steps will be in Santa Clara. This is a team that has been on the doorstep of a championship a few times in recent years, so hanging onto the WR pair for this coming season feels like the most likely route to take as the Niners take another crack at breaking on through to the other side.

It was a fairly Ravens-y draft, with few big surprises and plenty of solid value picks filling both immediate and longer-term needs. It would be fair to ask if Baltimore is done adding to the offensive line. Second-rounder Roger Rosengarten likely starts at right tackle right away. Center Nick Samac was the only other OL pick, putting the seventh-rounder in the mix to back up Tyler Linderbaum. Adding veteran help up front makes sense. But the Ravens bolstered the defense on all three days of the draft, with first-rounder Nate Wiggins and fourth-rounder T.J. Tampa joining the unit as two different styles of cornerback who can help combat the AFC North's stud receivers. The Ravens are just good at the draft. Instead of panicking on the offensive line, they let the board kind of dictate how they proceeded. I think that's the right way to do it most of the time. Baltimore isn't going anywhere, folks.

The entire draft weekend in Detroit felt like a celebration of the Lions, and rightfully so. After signing foundational pieces Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell to extensions, the Lions swung up on draft day to pluck one of the top two cornerbacks on the board. Terrion Arnold might not walk into the building in Allen Park as a ready-made shutdown corner, but he has that potential and fills a pretty big necessity for a team that should very much be in the Super Bowl mix this coming season. Doubling up at the position with Ennis Rakestraw Jr. was outstanding. Corner was Detroit's biggest need, and they landed two of my top six in this draft class. Their two sixth-rounders -- DT Mekhi Wingo and OG Christian Mahogany -- definitely could make the final roster, too. The Lions attacked the draft like a team that believes it can and will compete for the Lombardi Trophy in the 2024 campaign, and who am I to doubt them?

One of the more surprising developments of Round 1 was Philadelphia getting its pick of the cornerback litter without needing to trade up. GM Howie Roseman has inherited a reputation for being aggressive for good reason, and he showed that side in the brilliant Day 2 trade-up for Cooper DeJean. Knowing when to go bold and when to hold back is a drafting art, and Roseman appears to get this as well as anyone. The Eagles' first two picks were a clear demonstration of that. And, for good measure, they also took their usual approach to the remainder of the proceedings, mixing in a couple of interesting, unusual project picks (edge Jalyx Hunt and WR Johnny Wilson) with some rock-solid selections (RB Will Shipley, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., OG Trevor Keegan) to round out a typically impressive draft haul.

The 2025 second-rounder the Texans landed from the Vikings by moving out of the first round in March allowed them to trade for Stefon Diggs, which crippled one of their main competitors in the AFC. A solid Day 2 haul (DB Kamari Lassiter, OT Blake Fisher and S Calen Bullock) didn't move the needle a ton, but did provide insurance and depth at a few previously shaky spots. I just appreciate what Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans are building here. They absolutely nailed the draft last year (SEE: Houston sweeping the 2023 Rookie of the Year awards), allowing them to put on more of a full-court press this offseason and move this team another step or two closer to competing for a title. For fans of other teams coming off rough seasons, look to the Texans as the model your squad should follow. A new day has dawned in Houston, just over a year after things looked pretty bleak.

Buffalo slid back following the Stefon Diggs trade, which occurred after our last edition of the Power Rankings, and because the draft unfolded the way it did. The Bills clearly didn't think Xavier Worthy was the answer to their post-Diggs WR issues, otherwise they never would have traded out of that spot. Instead, they deftly slid back slightly twice and landed an "X" receiver in Keon Coleman, who could be a big producer in Buffalo's offense. But you just can't say with a straight face that the Bills have a better roster today than they did one year ago. They're still in that Super Bowl mix, sure, with Josh Allen squarely in the prime of his career and enough talent elsewhere to possibly fend off their improved AFC East rivals for another year. The one-step-back approach was a necessary evil for a team that got itself in salary-cap trouble while chasing a title. Can Buffalo continue competing at the highest level while exercising prudence? We shall see. Allen probably needs his best season to date in order for the Bills to do so.

The biggest question coming out of the draft might be where first-rounder Jordan Morgan ends up playing next season. Does he compete for the starting left tackle job? Or is a move inside a better fit for his skill set? I'm in the "try him at tackle" camp, having watched Morgan enough to believe his lack of prototypical length shouldn't be an issue, and I am not sure he's ideal at guard, where his lack of elite power might actually hinder his growth. This might be heresy, but I referred to Morgan as a poor man's David Bakhtiari at one point. We'll see. Protecting Jordan Love is, of course, the highest priority now. Green Bay watched the quarterback blossom into near stardom down the stretch of last season, completely flipping the midseason script after some early struggles. This is a team that reasonably can go a long way, but that left tackle spot is worth monitoring.

Cincinnati took a fairly risky approach to the draft, but it was risk mixed with purpose. There was a need to get bigger and better on both lines of scrimmage, and the Bengals achieved that by drafting three large human beings in their first four picks. They needed a receiver and drafted a talented one in Jermaine Burton. They beefed up at tight end, another need. And so on and so forth. But there was risk in each one of those selections. The first two large humans, Amarius Mims and Kris Jenkins, both are upside picks requiring projection, with Nick Saban straight up questioning Mims' football desire on national TV. Meanwhile, Burton was viewed as a character risk during the pre-draft process. Will Cincy's overall approach pay off? The Bengals have been restored to contender status with Joe Burrow healthy, but it will be interesting to look back in a few years to see whether their handling of this draft was brilliant or foolhardy.

They had an interesting draft -- no defensive tackle until Round 7 and no running back at all, but a clear emphasis on bolstering an offensive line that's in transition. I endorse that last element. With refinement, Tyler Guyton could be a prototypical Cowboys monster at tackle. Landing Cooper Beebe with the 73rd overall pick felt like highway robbery, especially if he ends up being Dallas' starting center Day 1. Throw in edge Marshawn Kneeland and wideout Ryan Flournoy, and this was a draft class I mostly could get behind. Now, did the 'Boys punt on taking an RB in the draft because Jerry Jones wants Ezekiel Elliott back? If so, I am less enthused. Dallas is the first team on this list that I can't call a certified Super Bowl contender, at least with how things stand right now. Good team, yes. But a great one? I'm not quite there yet.

I completely understood the rationale of taking edge Chop Robinson in the first round. The Dolphins were gutted when Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Andrew Van Ginkel all went down with injuries down the stretch last season, and Christian Wilkins, Emmanuel Ogbah and Van Ginkel are now playing elsewhere. Plus, they can't count on Phillips and Chubb being fully healthy to start the season. Robinson profiles similarly to Danielle Hunter when he came out, lacking quality college production but possessing all the pass-rush traits NFL teams are seeking. The rest of Miami's draft was fine. I really liked the middle three picks of RB Jaylen Wright, edge Mohamed Kamara and WR Malik Washington, but none of the three are going to significantly push Miami closer to a Super Bowl in 2024.

For where they were picking, the Browns did OK for themselves, especially with the top three selections of DT Michael Hall Jr., G Zak Zinter and WR Jamari Thrash. They attacked some of their bigger needs, mostly aimed at getting younger, and did a solid job throughout. Even CB Myles Harden, scooped up in the seventh round, got me a little excited. And their approach was slightly out of character, with GM Andrew Berry not pulling off a single trade and the Browns selecting a few older prospects. But all of that is window dressing for the major storyline this year: Can Deshaun Watson prove his worth? Nick Chubb's status is still a question mark as he recovers from last year's major knee injury, but the offensive line should mostly be back healthy. There are five (or more) quality pass-catching options. The defense, we know, is top-notch. So all eyes turn to No. 4. He's potentially the difference between a good season and a great one.

That's two years in a row where I left the draft thinking the Steelers had a top-five haul. There was a clear emphasis on bolstering the trenches. They possibly came away with two immediate starters on the offensive line in Troy Fautaunu and Zach Frazier, plus an excellent fourth-round depth piece in guard Mason McCormick. The Round 3 Wilson brothers, receiver Roman and linebacker Payton (NOTE: not actually brothers), could end up being great choices, with some luck. If I'm being greedy, I might have wanted a little more help on defense, specifically on the line and in the secondary, but holy moly, it felt like Pittsburgh made one strong pick after another throughout. We've tossed a few bouquets to the Steelers for their drafts over the years, and to be fair, some of those classes ended up worse than we imagined. But it's hard right now to view this year's crop as anything less than inspired.

The Jaguars hoovered up an SEC-heavy class that arguably improved the offense, defense and special teams, and there appeared to be solid value throughout. Trading back six spots in Round 1 and nabbing receiver Brian Thomas Jr. was a strong first move, and I'd challenge anyone saying that defensive tackle Maason Smith was a reach in Round 2. Four DTs came off the board in a five-pick span near the top of the round, so Smith wasn't lasting much longer than where he went (No. 48 overall). Plus, if you watched Smith down the stretch last season, he started looking more like he did before he tore his ACL in 2022. I could have used a little more help at cornerback, and drafting a kicker (Cam Little) -- especially one who must beat out two veterans to make the team -- is always risky business. But all told, the Jags had themselves a productive draft weekend.

I'll probably bump the Chargers up two or three spots between now and training camp, hoping many won't notice. Yes, backing the Bolts in recent years (or decades) has been an exercise in futility, but I still lump them in with some of the biggest offseason winners for landing Jim Harbaugh and all the players he's brought in since, and I will continue to do so. Five years from now, we'll see if taking tackle Joe Alt fifth overall over receiver Malik Nabers was the right call, but I definitely see the thinking on some level. Has Los Angeles done enough at wide receiver or cornerback to jump into one of the top-contender tiers? Well, we'll see. My suspicion is no, not yet, but second-round pick Ladd McConkey could be the Chargers' WR3 immediately, and they easily can find a less costly veteran to round that group out over the summer. 

We've graduated the Bears to the top half of the NFL. It's no charity situation, either. QB Caleb Williams' arrival was forecasted for weeks, but landing WR Rome Odunze as a new target for Williams at No. 9 overall was pretty darned exciting. I kept thinking Chicago would move down to add more picks, but the Bears stuck with Odunze and found a way to swing back into Round 5 -- after they'd used all four of the selections with which they entered the draft -- to pluck fascinating edge Austin Booker. But back to the offense. The Bears have a legitimate one now. No, really. Williams, Odunze, WR Keenan Allen and RB D'Andre Swift are four major additions to a group that was starting to show some promise in 2023. The upgrades mean new coordinator Shane Waldron will have no excuses not to be somewhere on the upper end of the league's spectrum, if not still a shade behind the truly elite units. Even in the really tough NFC North, that should be enough to get Chicago into the playoff mix.

This figured to be a blue-collar draft of sorts, especially when it came to rebuilding the post-Aaron Donald defensive line. I sat next to Rams linebacker Olakunle Fatukasi on my flight back from the draft and asked him about GM Les Snead's haul. "D-line, my goodness," Fatukasi said. "That's how you do it." Four picks, because no one man can replace A.D., with two inside (Braden Fiske in Round 2 and Tyler Davis in Round 6) and two on the edge (Jared Verse in Round 1 and Brennan Jackson in Round 5). The cost to move up for Fiske (a 2025 second-rounder) was steep, but he and his former running mate at Florida State, Verse, could be terrific alongside last year's strong rookie duo of Byron Young and Kobie Turner. I also loved L.A. grabbing running back Blake Corum in Round 3 as a complement to Kyren Williams; that pair will be a pain in the rump for defenses to corral. The Rams couldn't check off every box, but I can't find much fault in their overall approach. 

There’s a decent case to list the Vikings higher than this, given their targeted, aggressive approach in the draft and a theoretical upgrade at football’s most important position. J.J. McCarthy will continue to face doubters until he proves himself at the pro level, but he landed in the best environment a rookie quarterback could hope for, working with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, a strong offensive line and -- perhaps most importantly -- Kevin O’Connell. Then again, the Vikings might be fourth right now as a team in their own division. Their aggressive approach, which also helped land pass rusher Dallas Turner, forced them to sit out Day 2 of the draft entirely. This isn’t a team that’s yet ready to graduate to the next tier, but it’s also far easier to see them doing so after the draft.

Pick after solid pick, I kept nodding along to what the Bucs were doing -- hardly exciting, but thoughtful and purposeful throughout. Center Graham Barton will start Day 1. Edge Chris Braswell (No. 57 overall) was the only pick I semi-shrugged at, but having said that, I also think he has more untapped ability. Round 3 picks Tykee Smith and Jalen McMillan will upgrade the slot potential on both sides of the ball (Smith on defense and McMillan on offense). For me, this draft class was an extension of the Bucs' offseason as a whole: low on big-name imports but high on depth fortification. Is it a conservative approach? Maybe, but Tampa also should benefit again from playing in the NFC South and enters the season as the division's most solid team.

When the Falcons chose QB Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall, I chose not to freak out and react reflexively. I wanted to let the move marinate for a bit. Days later, I remain ambivalent, but I feel a little better about the idea. Kirk Cousins turns 36 in August. He's coming off a serious Achilles injury. That said, one would ideally be confident about a quarterback's health when committing as much money as the Falcons did to Cousins; in a perfect world, Penix won't see the field this season except in mop-up time. That's the toughest part to swallow for me when it comes to a team that acted like it was close to win-or-bust mode this offseason. Bill Belichick correctly pointed out during his live draft analysis for "The Pat McAfee Show" that having two good quarterbacks is seldom a bad thing. He's not wrong, of course. But compounding the whole issue is that I didn't love the remainder of the Falcons' draft class. I just don't know how to feel about any of this, honestly.

The Jets were having a good weekend. They got their tackle at No. 11 overall in Olu Fashanu -- he was not my favorite of the options they had, but he was not far off. They also passed on the sizzle pick (Brock Bowers) to do so. GM Joe Douglas looks like a man hell-bent on making sure this offensive line finally works. Rounds 3 through 5 landed them some prospects I really liked, even though doubling up at running back with Braelon Allen in the fourth round felt a little redundant. All in all, it looked like a productive weekend. But then I saw the trade of John Franklin-Myers to Denver, and I didn't like it. Look, I get why the Jets did it: they gave themselves some cap relief and had a surplus up front. But if there ever was a time to push all their chips in, with Aaron Rodgers perhaps in his swan-song season, isn't this it? Maybe I'm leaning too much on my "theatre kid" past here, but don't underestimate the locker-room effect that comes with moving JFM.

I thought the Colts would go with a playmaker or corner in Round 1. Instead, it was pass rusher Laiatu Latu, who was Chris Ballard’s second-biggest first-round gamble. (No. 1 is Anthony Richardson in 2023.) And I gotta say, I like this side of Ballard. Even second-rounder Adonai Mitchell carries risk -- or does he? Ballard went on a heater when the subject of Mitchell, a top-40 talent who slid a bit, and so-called “character concerns” came up. In short, Ballard vociferously defended Mitchell’s character, which had to sound good if you’re a Colts backer -- or if you’re Mitchell. I wasn’t the biggest Matt Goncalves fan, but Lance Zierlein gave him a solid grade, and Lance has forgotten more about OL play than I’ll ever know. Everything else the Colts did in the draft made sense, even if waiting to take a corner was tough. Indy added a little juice this weekend. 

Once six quarterbacks -- namely Michael Penix Jr. -- went off the board ahead of the Raiders’ pick, it really streamlined their options. But getting Brock Bowers at No. 13? That’s a steal to me, until proven otherwise. Maybe Penix would have qualified as the all-time honorary Al Davis selection if the Raiders had taken a first-round gamble on him, but as a high-upside athletic playmaker, Bowers isn’t far off. Bowers can help this team, and people freaking out about having multiple quality tight ends (Bowers and Michael Mayer) will hopefully see that down the road. The QB duo of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell might not be the most spine-tingling combination, but giving them a decent cast of targets can’t hurt. The defense also should carry a fairly heavy share of the load. No, this isn’t yet a Super Bowl-caliber roster, but the Raiders have gotten better this offseason.

I’d caught wind that the Seahawks might be leaning defense in Round 1, even after all the offensive line talk leading up to the draft, but I had the wrong position -- and I’m not mad about it at all. As president of the Byron Murphy Fan Club, I fully endorse the selection. He was a top-10 player to me, size concerns be damned. Sometimes you just fall for a guy, and he’s that guy. Mike Macdonald now can have some fun with his DL combinations. Say what you will about the actual results the past few seasons, but the Seahawks have some dudes up front. There are some things to figure out on the second level, but the secondary also should be pretty nice. I admit this ranking doesn’t exactly scream that I’m in love with the Seahawks, but if they can squeeze one more quality year out of Geno Smith, they might be far better than this slot indicates.

To me, the Saints’ draft hinges on their top three guys: OT Taliese Fuaga, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry and QB Spencer Rattler, in that order for now. The massive Fuaga fills a huge hole, assuming he can handle speed rushers early. Kool-Aid doesn’t need to play a lot of snaps immediately but could be Paulson Adebo’s replacement in 2025. And then there’s Rattler. Look, he was a fifth-round pick for a reason, but I’m lightly buying stock on him. Derek Carr’s future hangs in the balance, and I know Jake Haener was a higher pick (No. 127 overall) than Rattler (No. 150) just a year ago, but there’s something about the South Carolina QB I can’t quit. He might have landed in the perfect spot. Or, for all we know, he might be the Saints’ latest Day 3 dart throw that misses the mark. But if Rattler gets a chance down the road, he could really make this class shine in a few years.

I just really appreciate how Monti Ossenfort runs his drafts. For all the failed former Bill Belichick acolytes, Ossenfort might be blazing a pretty interesting trail out in the desert. The Cardinals landed arguably the best receiver in the draft in Marvin Harrison Jr., a solid foundational piece in pass rusher Darius Robinson, one of my favorite Day 2 corners (Max Melton) and a big-play back (Trey Benson) all before Friday night was halfway through. Throw in a few fun mid-to-late selections (TE Tip Reiman, safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, edge Xavier Thomas) and the sixth-round lifeline for OT Christian Jones, and the Cardinals had themselves a hell of a weekend. If the NFC West wasn’t so tough, I might have them a little higher. As it is, they’re in the sleeper on-deck circle.

It seems like Daniel Jones received a reprieve when the Giants were unable to move up for Drake Maye on Thursday night. Jones clearly must produce this season, or the Giants will likely end up going through "90 Day Fiancé: QB Edition" again nine months from now. I give GM Joe Schoen credit for not overspending and reaching on a passer for whom he didn’t have conviction. Plus, what’s one of the best ways to give Jones a chance to be successful? Provide him with Malik Nabers. He’s the most exciting Giants wideout since prime Odell Beckham Jr., and the two former Tigers have some overlap in their games. After a disappointing 2023 campaign, Brian Daboll needs to reverse the franchise’s fortunes this season. Providing Jones with a stronger supporting cast always felt like the best route to achieve that. 

It always felt like Bo Nix and Sean Payton were going to end up together. Part of that had to do with the fact that the Broncos were hamstrung, both financially and in terms of draft capital. But there’s also a style crossover that makes sense, with Payton known for his screen packages and the timing and rhythm of his system and Nix thriving in a similar environment up at Oregon. Left to his own devices, Nix can get himself in trouble at times. But if he allows Payton to shepherd him -- and deals with all the tough love that comes with that -- Nix might be in the best place to thrive eventually. Jerry Jeudy is gone, and Courtland Sutton’s place with the team isn’t clear, but adding a deep threat (Troy Franklin) to a semi-promising WR room was a smart play, too. I’m kind of interested in seeing how fast and well Nix can grab hold of his opportunity.

If Jayden Daniels wins Offensive Rookie of the Year, GM Adam Peters might be a dark-horse Executive of the Year candidate. The Commanders had a string of smart free-agent signings, with a mix of hungry veterans and established leaders, and they just brought in what looks like a very strong rookie class. I’ll admit that, long-term, I prefer Drake Maye over Daniels. Not by a lot, though. I also wish Washington had invested in better offensive tackle talent for Daniels, but the complaints end there. The Johnny Newton pick kicked off a run of five Friday selections that made their class a winner for me no matter what they did on Saturday (safety Dominique Hampton was my favorite of their three Day 3 choices). If Newton flashes, maybe -- and I’m just spitballing here -- Jonathan Allen becomes available at the trade deadline. You can see the wheels just starting to roll in Washington, but I’m more encouraged about this franchise than I’ve been in years.

The Titans made two high-risk, high-reward picks in the trenches to kick off the draft. The general history of boom-or-bust draft choices says that they can't assume more than one of them will pay off. Offensive tackle JC Latham is the one I would bet on; his addition in Round 1 is a continuation of the offseason sprucing of the offense (even with Derrick Henry leaving) around Will Levis. When T'Vondre Sweat was arrested on a DWI charge so close to the draft, I reached out to a handful of front-office people with a few different NFL teams (not named the Titans), and two people insisted Sweat would last until Day 3 because of the arrest. Instead, Tennessee took him 38th overall, which might have been right on the cusp of where his value would have been had the arrest never happened. The remainder of the draft class felt like a solid backstop, with some decent talent added, but this group clearly will be judged by the top two picks. And I know this is a different regime from the one that took Isaiah Wilson in Round 1 in 2020, but Titans fans are still scarred by that pick.

You wouldn’t know Bill Belichick wasn’t with the Patriots anymore if you looked solely at their 2024 draft haul. New England’s rookie class feels eerily similar to recent groups brought in under Belichick, where many of the prospects were selected a round to a round-and-a-half before they were typically projected (save for an interesting Day 3 pick or two). That said, I don’t think Belichick would’ve taken Drake Maye at No. 3 overall if his pre-pick analysis of the young QB is any indication. Have to think Belichick would’ve traded down, as was his MO. Let the record show that I am a Maye fan. But what scares me about the situation the UNC passer has landed in is the seemingly inevitable external pressure for him to play if the Pats struggle. Maye still needs some QB finishing school, and the offense overall still needs three to four quality contributors. Jerod Mayo and Co. need to navigate the young QB’s development prudently.

Considering what the Panthers came into the draft with, they did pretty well for themselves in Dan Morgan’s first time in the captain’s chair. It didn’t cost them much to trade into Round 1, but the choice of receiver Xavier Legette was a pretty bold first pick for Morgan. In Legette, RB Jonathon Brooks and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, the Panthers have three very interesting skill-position players, but each is clearly a work in progress. We might not really know how good they can be collectively until sometime in 2025. The rest of the haul looked pretty good on paper, especially the picks of LB Trevin Wallace and CB Chau Smith-Wade, but Wallace, like the offensive trio, has plenty of room for development. For Carolina, this isn’t too big of a deal. Their free-agent additions should help solidify things while the rookies improve. If two or three of these higher-variance picks pan out, this class could end up being a very strong group. Not bad for a team that began the event without a first-rounder.