NFL Power Rankings: Jets biggest mover as preseason nears; are Bears the real deal?

The receiver group was a real issue for most of last season, even if it didn't ultimately matter at the end. Still, Kansas City invested a lot in the position this offseason, signing Hollywood Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy, who could both play even more pronounced roles if Rashee Rice's troubling offseason leads to discipline by the league. Now the focus on offense appears to be squarely on the left tackle spot, where rookie second-rounder Kingsley Suamataia appears to be getting every chance to win the starting role over Wanya Morris, who had a few starts down the stretch last season. Morris left practice with a shoulder injury last week after working out at guard, but was back out there this week. Patrick Mahomes can offset almost anything, we’ve learned, so maybe the bigger question is how the defense replaces L'Jarius Sneed. The Chiefs have some things to figure out, but until someone knocks them off their perch, they’re my top dogs.

San Francisco's goal is to reach the mountaintop after a few close-but-no-cigar tries. We should not forget that, even as the Brandon Aiyuk drama threatens to overwhelm the preseason. I know if I were in the Niners' shoes, I would be happy to let him play out the final year of his contract, get whatever I could get out of him in 2024 and push the issue of his long-term future to the offseason. Perhaps Aiyuk will be on a different team soon. But it is hard to envision a trade return that would do more to help San Francisco get closer to a title than Aiyuk could on the field this season. There's also Trent Williams' contract situation, which, while quieter, complicates the availability of yet another elite player. There's suddenly a lot happening with one of the NFL's premier contenders. If Aiyuk is moved, I might drop the Niners down, but for now, this strikes me as the kind of noise that they have dealt with in the past, only to cruise to double-digit wins.

Now that Lamar Jackson has been debugged of whatever illness was ailing him before, the Ravens can move headlong into molding the offensive line. The early camp reports suggest the defense looks good again, especially in the secondary. We expect the Ravens to be strong, or at least competent, on special teams. So that's an MVP winner, Derrick Henry and some quality pass catchers carrying the load offensively. There's also the hope that Jackson and Henry, even some others, can help minimize the worry on the O-line with their individual talent. That might work to a degree. But there are three OL jobs open right now, and here is who they could come down to: a second-year player with zero snaps coming off major injury (Andrew Vorhees) a converted tackle at guard (Daniel Faalele) and a rookie (Roger Rosengarten) at right tackle. I'm not doubting Jackson's magic or the Ravens' ability to whip this line into sustainable shape, but it's still a concern until it's not.

When it comes to locking up core pieces, the Lions have had as fruitful an offseason as any team in the NFL, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell getting their deals done on the eve of the NFL draft, Jared Goff finishing his new contract in May and Taylor Decker getting his done at the end of July. The Lions theoretically have a pretty darned big window to break through their glass ceiling, coming off a season in which they were up 17 points in the NFC Championship Game. All of this, of course, guarantees nothing when it comes to winning the franchise’s first Super Bowl, but by securing so many key players, Detroit has a legitimate chance to do something special. How will the Lions fare when going from the hunter to the hunted? That’s the part that interests me the most.

I’m expecting a strong season from Jalen Hurts. For all the teeth-gnashing over the Eagles’ offense never truly matching its 2022 brilliance consistently last season, Hurts still put up numbers -- and they were pretty similar to what he did the year before. The biggest difference was the turnovers. Hurts had just three games last season with zero turnovers, compared with eight turnover-free games in 2022. He played hurt more often last season, wasn’t as effective as a runner and forced some ill-advised throws. The good news is that Hurts has looked good to start camp and should be back in the playmaking saddle again. The Kellen Moore hire felt a bit strange at first, and setting protections without Jason Kelce won't be a finger snap, but I can see this offense returning to dominance again in time.

There has been some good news early in camp, with the emergence of rookie CB Kamari Lassiter (No. 42 overall), but also some bad news, with Denico Autry being suspended for the season’s first six games. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that those six contests look like the easiest patch of a pretty challenging schedule. Yes, there are some key "swing" games during that initial stretch, including against the Bears (Week 2) and Bills (Week 5), which will help measure how close the Texans are to being contenders, but even those teams are likely to be going through some growing pains early on. I’ve said I think elevating the Texans to Super Bowl status this season might be a bit too rich for me, but this ranking also reflects just how far they’ve come in a year’s time.

I’m still relatively bullish on the Bills, because of: A) Josh Allen and some of his weapons and B) A defense that traditionally has kept the team in games, even with some missing parts. All summer long, I felt like Dalton Kincaid would be the biggest story coming out of training camp, and for all we know, he might be. But with second-round WR Keon Coleman continuing to receive ample first-team reps -- using them to stack strong performances -- it’s possible the rookie steals the show eventually. There are still questions on defense, and the depth on offense worries me a bit, but I don’t see Allen and Co. sinking fast and hard this season the way some people seem to.

There’s an interesting debate out there about the wisdom of paying Jordan Love now, making him one of the league’s highest-paid players, after about half a season’s worth of top-tier production. I suspect it will work out well, if for no other reason than because of the offensive talent the Packers are amassing, but there’s obvious risk, based on his limited body of work. That said, Love can shift that narrative pretty quickly with a 2024 season that mirrors last year’s second half. I think the Packers remain the biggest threat to the Lions in the NFC North, with the Bears and Vikings still in a transition period of sorts, at least to start the season. Green Bay’s defense could dictate how far the team ultimately goes, but the offensive line isn’t fully salted away, either. 

Ja’Marr Chase has not been practicing as his contract situation remains unresolved, but his absence isn't scaring me yet. If the Bengals can afford that fancy new Taj Mahal of a locker room, then there’s certainly enough money in the banana stand to pay Chase appropriately, especially with Tee Higgins entering what will almost certainly be his final season in Cincinnati. This is no perfect squad, with a few trap doors lurking -- that defense must improve, and the running backs are a question -- but they’re still dangerous with Joe Burrow healthy and Chase and Higgins out there. There’s also been a lot of Andrei Iosivas buzz early in camp, so a three-headed WR attack could be back.

A year ago, I picked the Cowboys to make the Super Bowl. Through two games, the defense looked incredible. Then Trevon Diggs suffered a season-ending injury, and things went a little sideways for that unit at times. I certainly understand the current news du jour is focused on CeeDee Lamb's holdout and the pressure facing Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy in what could be their swan-song season in Dallas if things don’t go right. But the performance of that Mike Zimmer-led defense is vitally important to the Cowboys’ 2024 forecast. While Diggs is working his way back into shape, Sam Williams is now done for the year, and players such as Mazi Smith still need to show they can contribute more. Dallas has the firepower, but it might need everything to go right this season to reach the mountaintop.

If Anthony Weaver can whip this defense into shape, doing what Vic Fangio could not last season, he'll earn attention as a head-coaching candidate, and rightfully so. I think the offense is what it is at this point, and that's mostly a good thing, cold-weather games notwithstanding -- the unit will light a few scoreboards on fire, but it will have a few duds, too. At some point, this defense has to win some games for this team. Its best performances last season were against the Jets, Patriots and Commanders -- all teams that are using new QBs this season. There's been a lot of turnover on Miami's depth chart, but the pass rush and secondary could be really good overall. Weaver has opened some eyes early in camp with how his unit has played, and I can't wait to see how his group simmers. 

I still have a mental block with this team, driven by a fear of overrating them until after I've seen better play from Deshaun Watson. That's not the only thing I'm thinking about, of course. The Browns are still dealing with injuries after the most banged-up season imaginable. A good deal of the roster is the same as it was a year ago, minus Joe Flacco and a few others, and the defense should retain its perch as one of the two or three best units in the league. And new receiver Jerry Jeudy, back at practice after missing time with an injury, could add some juice. But again, it kind of all comes back to Watson. While there have been no apparent setbacks with his shoulder, we are at the point where he's seemingly being scrutinized for every missed throw or read, and the whole vibe just feels edgy to me. Then again, paying $230 million for anything will make you do whatever it takes to get a return, so I imagine he and the Browns will be tethered for some time together.

The Steelers were going to be tricky for me to project heading into this season prior to Russell Wilson’s calf barking early in camp. Even if he returns to full speed, those soft-tissue things can linger, and Justin Fields isn’t just your garden-variety backup. Plenty of fans would be happy to see Fields step in. But what does Mike Tomlin think? Both Tomlin and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith were tangled in suboptimal QB webs a year ago, and though this year’s room is more talented, there’s no guarantee they’ll get this thing entirely right. Really, both have to play better than they did a year ago, especially Fields, if he gets a shot. Are the rest of the supporting pieces strong enough for Pittsburgh to withstand more offensive questions and still make a run for the postseason? In this division? That’s really my biggest hang-up.

The depth at corner worries me, and the defensive side of the ball will have a lot to prove in general in this post-Aaron Donald world. The special teams unit also has a long way to go, if last season is any indication. But the offense should be one of the league’s stronger groups, with a healthy Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. Puka Nacua's knee injury isn't ideal, but it also doesn't appear to be too serious. Getting those two stud wideouts healthy and on the field together is crucial for L.A. The Rams' return to Ford Field should be one of the best Week 1 games on the slate, and it could remind everyone just how dangerous they were when they nearly took down the Lions in last year's Wild Card Round.

Putting the Jets here is something of a preemptive move mixed with a correction. I had them too low in the spring; thus, they've moved up. And I believe there's a chance, if Aaron Rodgers feels good (and like he's on the same page with his receivers) and the run game hums like I think it will, that the Jets will start the season cooking with gas. Even with a tough opener against the 49ers, they should be a story this season. I just have my fears -- though little to back them up -- that their tanks will run dry at some point. If you want to label me as irrational or a Jets hater, I get it. But I've long maintained that the league is a more fun place when teams such as the Jets are winning, and this season does present an opportunity to cleanse quite a bit of last year's stink.

I’m pretty sure I previously revealed my plans to just inch the Chargers up the rankings with boiling-frog subtlety, until it’s too late for people to realize what’s afoot. Seeing a 60-year-old Jim Harbaugh do reverse sled pulls of 300-pounders early in camp only got me more jacked up. Of course, I wasn’t expecting Justin Herbert to be diagnosed with a plantar fascia injury so early in camp, which has quelled my excitement just a tad. But really, assuming Herbert can return prior to Week 1 and the issue isn’t a long-term worry, the emergence of the top three receivers -- Josh Palmer, D.J. Chark and Ladd McConkey -- has gone a long way toward impressing me, as has the play of the secondary and defense as a whole. Second place is wide open in the AFC West, and the schedule lays out pretty well for the Bolts, even if the Herbert thing makes me a little uneasy.

I try not to look around too hard at other folks' power rankings, lovely as they all certainly are. But I always come into a season knowing I will be noticeably higher or lower than the masses on a few teams. I saw some 19s, a 20 and even a 21 for Jacksonville out there, and I must admit that surprised me. Yes, the Jaguars sunk like stones in the final six weeks of the season, and though there were signs of trouble prior to that, this was still an 8-3 team at one point. Maybe the Jags stepped back slightly at receiver, but they upgraded on the offensive and defensive lines and have several young players capable of emerging. The early-season schedule is an absolute gantlet, but there’s still a roadmap to success in 2024.

Living in the Chicago area, I’ve been trying to put my finger on the Bears hype around here all summer. And then, in a tidy five minutes, Good Morning Football’s Kyle Brandt captured it perfectly -- and funnily -- on the Rich Eisen Show. The hype is real, but there’s a tangible nervousness along with it, and you can’t blame Bears fans who haven’t witnessed a playoff victory in almost 14 years for feeling this way. I’ve maintained that we all need to be patient with Caleb Williams. I could see him starting slowly (and Jayden Daniels maybe being a bit better in Washington) and panic ensuing. Because of his play style, he doesn't strike me as the type of quarterback who steps in Day 1 and dominates, even if that’s the eventual expectation. If the defense can carry them early in the season, when the schedule is more manageable, the Bears could have playoff upside.

The Vikings are an interesting team that might finish above this ranking, but I’m kind of in limbo on them until I get a better read on the ceiling of their quarterbacks. I was a Sam Darnold fan when he came out of USC, but he’s sort of been a tease in the NFL. Nevertheless, it sounds like Darnold is the heavy favorite to start in Week 1, with J.J. McCarthy still getting his lake legs under him and primarily working with the 2's. The lack of cornerback depth has me worried, but I think this linebacker group and rush unit have a chance to wreak some havoc up front. I think Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores can coach, and I’m really fascinated to see if they can navigate their way to a season that is closer to what Minnesota did in 2022 than what we saw for most of last year. This team was starting to cook a little just before Kirk Cousins went down for the year, and I think they’ll make some noise at some point in 2024.

For a team that has made the playoffs in four straight seasons, Tampa sure doesn’t get a ton of respect -- even from me, apparently. Last year's squad opened my eyes by season’s end, even if it backed into the playoffs in a way that was only possible in the lowly NFC South. The division has improved (I think), but let’s not get crazy here; it’s still eminently winnable for the Bucs, especially after they kept most of their core in place this offseason. I don’t know that Baker Mayfield has a ceiling vastly higher than what we saw from him last season, though a new offensive coordinator will keep the mystery up for a while. But if the offense can at least mimic what it did a year ago and the defense can defend the pass a little better, I don’t see why a fourth straight division title isn’t possible.

I’ve been accused of being a Colts hater by, well, Colts fans, and they’re entitled to their opinions. But I don't think it's hating to have some concerns about the wide-eyed optimism I'm seeing about Indy's chances this year. There are undoubtedly things to like. Anthony Richardson has the dynamism to elevate this team. Jonathan Taylor is another year removed from injury and a challenging season. The Colts added some firepower on both sides of the ball, including 2024 first-round pick Laiatu Latu, who could be a strong Defensive Rookie of the Year contender. All of that is legit. But there’s a little finger-crossing required for it all to happen, and I don’t know if this squad is truly exceptional in any one element of the game. Solid, sure. But does it have some real juice? If Richardson and Latu stay healthy, yes. If either misses any notable time (Richardson more so, obviously), I’m far less encouraged. The AFC South is better than I think it gets credit for.

The Falcons appear to be the Bucs’ biggest challenger in the NFC South, and their ability to unseat the reigning division champs depends on a healthy Kirk Cousins, a strong offensive line, a handful of truly elite playmakers and a mishmash of other guys stepping up. Cousins must be a guiding hand for this group, especially in the red zone, where Atlanta ranked 29th in overall efficiency and ended the year as the only team to convert on less than 50% of goal-to-go situations. Defensively, they were playing better than you might remember before Grady Jarrett tore his ACL in Week 8. Can Raheem Morris coax a few more sacks and turnovers out of this unit? If so, there's plenty to like about Atlanta's chances in the South.

Amid the offseason ennui, I teased the idea of Sam Howell perhaps pushing Geno Smith at some point this season, and Smith’s injury appeared to open that door a crack. However, Smith has now returned to practice, and it doesn’t sound like a change is happening anytime soon. The 33-year-old has never been that next-level quarterback, but he’s led the Seahawks to winning records the past two seasons. Even with Seattle having three ace receivers who need their touches, I view Smith as a strong bridge QB for Mike Macdonald, sort of a ball distributor in the Alex Smith vein. But Macdonald must whip into shape a defense that was coming on last October before melting thereafter. It’s pretty much a refresh, even with plenty of returning pieces. The front and secondary have loads of potential. If that defense comes together, this low ranking will egg my face pretty well.

The Saints are a weird one for me. Some numbers suggest they were actually better than their 9-8 record, such as their overall +75-point differential and head-scratching 3-6 mark in games decided by eight points or less. One counter to those figures is that they faced one of the league’s weakest schedules. Derek Carr finished 2023 on a mini-tear, yet it wasn’t enough to prevent an offensive coordinator change. Entering Year 3 at the helm, with a sub.-500 mark (16-18), Dennis Allen might be feeling some pressure. ... Is that a good or a bad thing? The Saints didn’t make a ton of noise in free agency, but there are potentially high-reward additions, such as Chase Young. And while there already was some talent on the roster, especially at the skill positions and at pass rusher, the overall depth and both lines of scrimmage worry me. They’re a strange study in contrasts, but in a weaker division, the Saints' final record could make this initial ranking look foolish.

I’m hedging here just a bit because the closer we are to the season, the more worried I am about the upside of the QB position. I think Aidan O'Connell will get every opportunity to be the team's Week 1 starter, and if he can’t get it done, Gardner Minshew will get his shot. The journeyman-in-the-making always seems like a better QB to me when he feels like he’s been scorned, so that’s how I’d play it, unless AOC just isn’t up to par right away. The problem with that battle early in camp is that the offensive line has been banged up, not giving either QB the cleanest looks possible. Despite my concerns under center, there are reasons for optimism with this team. I’m still hopeful for what Zamir White can do in an extended role. They have a true WR1 in Davante Adams, plus a few other good offensive parts. And the defensive line is going to do some damage this season. But right now, the Raiders -- more than most teams -- feel like an incomplete picture overall. It’s hard to win consistently in the NFL without some kind of difference-maker at quarterback. Does Vegas have that? Right now, I’m unconvinced.

The Jayden Daniels buzz has me twitching a little bit. The Commanders have received another incremental bump since the start of the offseason, and this is one of the teams I'm more anxious to watch in the preseason. Mostly because of Daniels, admittedly, as he's inching closer to my preseason Offensive Rookie of the Year pick. It would be something else if Daniels outplayed No. 1 pick Caleb Williams, a D.C. native, in 2024, ushering in a debate over which QB has the better future. Look, this situation isn't vastly different situation from the one the Texans were in one year ago. Washington has a new, defensive-minded, player-friendly coach. A precocious rookie QB. New energy and hope in the building. Plus just enough playmakers on each side of the ball. I'm not saying the Commanders are winning both their division and a home playoff game, as Houston did in 2023. But the Texans started 0-2 and 3-4, and they entered Week 17 on the outside of the playoff picture last season. I realize this ranking doesn't currently reflect it, but I'm prepared to push Washington up soon. Just a feeling.

There appears to be real momentum with the Cardinals, who played competitive football at the end of last season. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing worked with what he had early and did well merging forces with Kyler Murray after the QB returned from injury. The offense isn't yet a top-10 group, mind you, but there is some excitement around that unit, especially after the addition of WR Marvin Harrison Jr. -- and the team's biggest problems mostly lie on defense. I was impressed with Jonathan Gannon's team in Year 1, especially with how consistently hard Arizona played through the season. His biggest mission this season has to be making the defense semi-competent. That's the side of the ball where his expertise lies, and the talent at least has been moderately upgraded. The NFC West is no joke.

The Titans have undergone major changes on offense and defense, as well as to the coaching staff, and I don't quite know what to think of all the upheaval yet. I'd say I am mostly positive, but will the makeover result in more wins? A ton obviously depends on Will Levis and his development this season, but you can't say Tennessee hasn't at least tried to insulate him well on offense. How it all comes together under a first-year head coach in Brian Callahan is anyone's guess. There's probably a wide span of possible results this season, given the sheer number of unknowns here. But I will say that anyone claiming the AFC South is weak might want to step back and measure it against other divisions. There are four teams here that have a shot to finish over .500. It's not as strong top to bottom as the AFC North, but it might not be terribly far off, either.

The Giants clearly cast their offseason forward, full steam ahead, when they decided to give Daniel Jones another shot. You can debate the pros and cons of that decision until you're (Giants) blue in the face. My question is: What happens if some rust remains following an injury-decimated 2023? Jones' camp has been a mixed bag; after early reported struggles, he generated some positive press and even threw down with the Lions in joint practice. Still, I wonder if Drew Lock is on standby. Would the Giants even consider making a switch early if things start out like they did a year ago? You'd hope the offensive line would improve, and the receivers could end up being a team strength. But with apparent steps backward this offseason at running back, secondary and possibly tight end -- plus with all the Jones worry -- it's hard to put them any higher than this right now.

This feels painfully low for a team that was 8-9 last season and in the playoff hunt until New Year's Eve. But the Broncos achieved that success in spite of a defense that ranked near the bottom of the league, and it's not obvious how that unit will make massive strides this season. There's also the QB situation, which keeps me in stasis until I know more. It just feels like Bo Nix is going to get every opportunity possible to win the starting job out of the gate. He'd be Denver's 13th starting QB since Peyton Manning left. Even so, I suspect Broncos fans would be fine if Nix won the job early (or fairly early), kept it and offered some promise heading into next season. Call me a skeptic if you want. It's possible I am vastly underestimating this team's potential upside, but as much as I respect Sean Payton's coaching ability, I just can't yet see the big picture coming to fruition in 2024.

Drake Maye's reported struggles aren't a shock to me, as I always believed, even while rating him above Jayden Daniels, that Maye would need significant time to adapt to an NFL scheme after not running an NFL offense at UNC. The Patriots will be fine with Jacoby Brissett holding the job until Maye is ready, but I worry about the rest of the offense. Ja'Lynn Polk has made some early noise in camp, as has Javon Baker, which is nice to see. But there are speed and depth questions at the other skill spots, and the offensive line remains a major question mark for now. Plus, they could be without Christian Barmore (who was diagnosed with blood clots) for a long time. And there's been camp drama around Matthew Judon, who is practicing but seeking a new contract. So yeah, there's a lot on Jerod Mayo's plate right now.

It feels like it's become a tradition in recent years for the team that generally ranks 32nd across the power rankings landscape entering the season to not finish the year in dead last, so history says the Panthers have a chance to move out of the basement by January. It was getting a bit musty down there, anyway. Bryce Young is the clear and obvious source for potential improvement from within, partially thanks to an offseason geared around improving his poor offensive supporting cast. Did they do enough to become true contenders? Probably not, but this offseason was a solid start, and it's been a welcome development for Ikem Ekwonu and Jonathan Mingo to start camp on high notes. Defensively, trading Brian Burns will sting the pass rush quite a bit. I think you'll see GM Dan Morgan scouring the wires for assistance at that spot. Having the first waiver priority helps -- but it also is an indication of just how much work there is left to do in Carolina.