NFL Pro: Top four fantasy mismatches of Super Bowl LIX

Patrick Mahomes is built for the biggest stage. Making his fifth Super Bowl start in the last six seasons, Mahomes is seeking his third straight Super Bowl MVP award. And if the Chiefs QB leans on the quick passing game, uses his legs and converts in clutch situations, he’ll be well on his way to earning it.

Mahomes led the NFL in completion percentage (83.6%) and success rate (60.9%) on quick passes (under 2.50 seconds) during the regular season, per Next Gen Stats. That marks Mahomes’ fourth season eclipsing a 60% success rate on quick passes, a mark that only five other QBs have reached since 2016. Mahomes and the Chiefs have especially emphasized quick passing recently. Over the past four games, Mahomes is averaging a 2.50-second time to throw; that’s more than a third of a second quicker than his average from Week 1-15 (2.87). Philadelphia might not have an answer, either. In Super Bowl LVII, Mahomes completed all 13 of his quick pass attempts -- two of which went for touchdowns -- against the Eagles.

So, what? We already know Mahomes is effective as a passer. But how about as a runner? His 5.9 yards per carry average in the Super Bowl are the highest among all players with at least 25 carries throughout Super Bowl history. Like with quick passing, Mahomes emphasizes his running ability in the playoffs. Kansas City’s signal-caller has been more willing to scramble on dropbacks during the postseason (8.1%) compared to the regular season (6.0%) during his career. Including the playoffs, his 78.3% success rate on scramble runs ranks highest among 17 QBs who have at least 25 scramble runs this season.

Perhaps most importantly, Mahomes delivers when it matters most. The Chiefs have gained a whopping +864% in win probability on third down in the Mahomes era. For context, that is 470% more than the next closest team. This season, Mahomes led the NFL with a 51.4% dropback success rate on third down. His knack for making plays in the clutch is a big reason why Kansas City has tied the NFL record with 17 straight one-possession game wins. Not impressed? The chances of the Chiefs winning all 17 of those contests -- based on their win probability entering the fourth quarter of each -- was just 0.02% (or 1 in 4,480). If Super Bowl LIX comes down to the wire, count on Mahomes and Co. to meet the moment because they have all season long. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Mahomes’ quick pass completions against the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.)

Daily Fantasy Sports Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)

DraftKings Price: $10,000

In three of the four Super Bowls Patrick Mahomes has played so far, he’s thrown multiple touchdown passes and topped 23 fantasy points (obviously things didn’t go quite as well in the Super Bowl LV loss to Tampa Bay). He’s also coming off his best fantasy performance of the entire season after posting 30.1 points against the Bills with a huge assist from his legs (43 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns). The Eagles defense is admittedly elite, but nobody is more elite than Patrick Mahomes on the game’s biggest stages. He’s less expensive than Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts, but might have the best chance at 25+ points.

Saquon Barkley is poised for a heavy workload in his first Super Bowl appearance. Barkley has generated +172 rushing yards over expected this postseason, the most by any player in a single playoff run since 2018, per Next Gen Stats. And Philadelphia has been force-feeding its workhorse back. The Eagles have called a pass play on a league-low 44.7% of first and second downs this season, meaning Barkley should get plenty of early down touches. Philadelphia’s 50.4% called run rate is the second-highest metric in a single season by any team since 2016. What’s more? The Eagles’ run rate in the red zone (62.0% of plays) is significantly higher compared to the rest of the football field (47.7%), though both are league-leading marks.

Barkley has been nearly unstoppable. On runs outside the tackles, Barkley is averaging an eye-popping 9.3 yards per carry in the playoffs. His 344 yards and five TDs on such rushes are both the most by any player in the postseason in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). He has accounted for 829 of Philadelphia’s league-high 1,346 rushing yards before contact this season. And it doesn’t get much better for defenses after contact. Barkley’s 339 rushing yards after contact during this year’s playoffs are the most by a player in a postseason run since Derrick Henry in 2019.

The Tush Push has been the bane of Barkley fantasy owners’ existence. But fear not! After the Chiefs defense allowed just two first downs on five QB sneaks in the AFC Championship Game, maybe the Eagles will rethink their strategy? That could mean more work for Barkley in fourth-down situations and on the goal line. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Barkley’s carries outside the tackles this postseason.)

DFS Outlook (from Okada)

DraftKings Price: $12,000

The ultimate test. Unstoppable force versus immovable object. Saquon Barkley has totaled a whopping 84.7 fantasy points through three playoff games so far and has topped 100 rushing yards in nine of his last 10 games. If this game remains close, you can expect the Eagles to feed their star player upwards of 30 touches and can almost guarantee at least one huge play. As the highest-priced player on the Super Bowl slate, the only question is whether Kansas City’s stifling run defense -- fewest fantasy points per game allowed to the position in 2024 -- will be able to keep Barkley in check enough to dampen his DFS return on investment.

Mahomes and Travis Kelce are the obvious headliners, but Xavier Worthy has been a key contributor for Kansas City during the playoffs. Worthy snagged six of seven targets – one of which Next Gen Stats deemed the most improbable postseason completion since 2021 – for 85 yards and a TD in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs rookie famously ran the fastest 40-yard dash time in NFL combine history, but he has proven to be much more than simply a speedy deep threat.

Worthy’s role has evolved as the season has gone on. Through the first 13 weeks, Worthy averaged 11.3 air yards per target. That number has shrunk to just 4.8 air yards per target since Week 14, but it speaks to Andy Reid’s new approach to getting Worthy involved. Since Week 14, Worthy has caught 16 of 19 targets behind the line of scrimmage for 101 yards and a TD. Those six-week totals surpass his corresponding marks through the first 13 weeks (13 targets, 11 receptions, 90 yards). That trend aligns nicely with Mahomes’ tendencies with a career-high 26.9% of the Chiefs QB’s pass attempts this season targeting a receiver behind the LOS.

Worthy has also bumped his motion rate up by 15.5% from the regular season to the postseason. That is significant because Worthy’s target rate on plays where he goes in motion has also experienced a serious bump from 26.0% in the regular season to 42.9% in the playoffs. Look for Worthy to break out as a significant target for Mahomes in Super Bowl LIX. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Worthy’s receptions when going in motion this postseason.)

DFS Outlook (from Okada)

DraftKings Price: $8,400

Xavier Worthy is “surprisingly pricey” on the Super Bowl slate, clocking in as the sixth-most expensive player overall and the fourth-most expensive non-quarterback. But then again, he’s scored a touchdown and topped 19 fantasy points in four of his last five games, averaging 75 scrimmage yards per game over that span (since Week 15). The Eagles have been exceptional at limiting yards after catch, so they’ll be a good match for Worthy, but if he can cash in his otherworldly speed for a big play or two, he has big DFS upside on Sunday.

Dallas Goedert has been the unsung hero of Philadelphia’s 2024 playoff run. The tight end leads the Eagles with 188 receiving yards this postseason. Goedert has also developed a tendency to create explosive plays, registering three of Philadelphia’s six 20+-yard receiving plays in the playoffs.

A safety blanket for QB Jalen Hurts, Goedert ties A.J. Brown with 18 targets through the Eagles’ three playoff games. Hurts has completed 13 of 14 passes for 240 yards when targeting Goedert on third down this season, per Next Gen Stats. That connection has resulted in +106.6% win probability added in Philadelphia’s favor, the most by an QB-receiver duo. For a sense of Goedert’s magnitude, the Eagles have added just +15.0% in win probability when Hurts has targeted any other receiver on third down.

But Goedert’s impact is two-fold: his blocking ability is as important as his receiving prowess. Philadelphia averaged 6.3 yards per designed rush with Goedert on the field this season compared to 4.9 without Goedert. Goedert might not get the shine of other Eagles’ playmakers, but his numbers speak for themselves. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Goedert’s effectiveness on third down.)

DFS Outlook (from Okada)

DraftKings Price: $5,800

If you’re looking for a sneaky discount play, Dallas Goedert deserves your consideration. He’s been gaining steam recently, with at least four catches and 40 yards in four straight games and a big seven-catch, 85-yard performance in the conference championship. Perhaps more importantly, the Chiefs have been particularly soft against tight ends this season, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Only one team (the Bengals) allowed more receptions to tight ends and no team allowed more receiving yards. I could see Goedert absolutely racking up points in the fourth quarter and ending up the biggest value on the entire slate.