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Which players are poised to put up major numbers in Week 11? The data appears to have an answer. See which individuals will be difference-makers for their teams (and your fantasy football squad) on Sunday.
One of the underrated storylines of Russell Wilson’s tenure in Pittsburgh has been the resurgence of George Pickens. The Steelers’ third-year receiver has seen his average yards per game jump from 60.5 under Justin Fields to 92 with Wilson. Pickens has also found the end zone twice in Wilson’s three starts after not scoring once through Week 6. It’s clear that Pickens is trending upward -- and downfield.
Pickens leads the NFL in receptions (11) and receiving yards (370) on deep targets (20+ air yards) this season, per Next Gen Stats. Since Wilson took over the starting QB gig in Week 7, he has found Pickens five times for 164 yards on deep passes, the second-most by any QB-WR duo in that span despite the Steelers having a Week 9 bye. Don’t count on that connection slowing down in Week 11 against the Ravens.
Baltimore’s last-ranked pass defense has allowed the third-most yards (597) and is tied for the most touchdowns (7) given up on deep passes this season. The 2024 Ravens have also allowed a league-high 83 explosive passes (15+ yards), tied for the most by any team through the first 10 weeks of the season since the Next Gen Stats era began in 2016. Even if Baltimore, who has allowed the most yards and TDs to receivers this season, cover Pickens tightly, expect him to make a play on the seemingly impossible. Pickens has generated a league-high 1,277 receiving yards on passes that have a completion probability of under 50% over the past three seasons. Any way you slice it, Pickens is set to feast on Sunday. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Pickens’ success on deep targets this season.)
Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
The Ravens are the league’s top pass-funnel and have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers as a result. The opposing team’s most-targeted wideout has averaged 21.4 fantasy points against Baltimore, and a league-high seven receivers have topped 20 fantasy points against them. Meanwhile, Pickens has averaged 92 receiving yards per game with Wilson under center. He's a lock for WR2 production with the upside to finish number one on the week.
Brock Purdy has owned the Seahawks entering the NFL. Purdy is 5-0 against Seattle, averaging a passer rating of 118 with 1,381 passing yards and an 11:2 passing touchdown to interception ratio across those five wins. The latest came in Week 6, when Purdy torched the Seahawks for 255 yards and three touchdowns to lead San Francisco to its highest scoring output of the season (36) thus far. And that was without one of the NFL’s most dangerous weapons by his side.
In Week 11, Purdy will have an almost-full offensive arsenal at his disposal. Star RB Christian McCaffrey made his season debut last Sunday and tallied 68 of his 105 scrimmage yards through the air. McCaffrey’s boost to San Francisco’s passing game is two-fold: He finished second on the team in receptions last season, and his ability to break off long runs always keeps the defense guessing on play-action calls. The Seahawks have given up 25 or more points in five of their last six outings and failed to sack Purdy the last time they met. Expect Purdy to keep his unbeaten streak against Seattle alive – and to post a big performance along the way. (Check out this All-22 footage of Brock Purdy’s completions against the Seahawks in Week 6.)
Fantasy Outlook
The presence of McCaffrey is a huge boost to Purdy and the 49ers offense, as evidenced by Purdy’s 353-yard, two-TD performance against the Bucs in CMC’s return. This week, he gets a Seahawks defense that he tagged for three TDs and 24 fantasy points back in Week 6 without McCaffrey. Including that game, Purdy has scored 23-plus fantasy points in three of his last four and averaged 22.8 per game since. He’s in line for another 20-burger in Week 11.
Ja’Marr Chase is enjoying a dominant season for the Bengals. Joe Burrow’s No. 1 target leapfrogged his former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson as the NFL’s triple crown leader in receiving categories after a historic 264-yard, 3-TD performance in Week 10. Chase has caught at least one touchdown in six of Cincinnati’s last eight outings and his presence directly correlates to his team’s on-field success: the Bengals have averaged +4.1 more yards per play with Chase on the field (6.3) compared to Chase off the field (2.1), the largest difference in the NFL this season.
Chase is at his best against zone coverage, which the Chargers use at the third-highest rate in the league (83.7%). Against zone coverage, Chase leads the NFL in receiving yards (795), receiving yards over expected (+323), yards after catch over expected (+193) and receiving touchdowns (7), per Next Gen Stats. No player has more touchdowns against zone coverage than Chase, who has racked up 20 since entering the league in 2021. Los Angeles will need to adjust its defensive tendencies before Sunday Night Football or Jim Harbaugh’s defense could find itself in a similar position to the one his brother John’s unit was in last week. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Chase’s historic Week 10 performance.)
Fantasy Outlook
How good has Chase been for fantasy? Well, he’s scored more fantasy points since Week 4 than any other wide receiver has all season and he holds two of the top three single-game performances in 2024 -- 41.3 fantasy points in Week 5 and 55.4 in Week 10. The Chargers look relatively stingy against wideouts on the surface, but they have yet to face anyone currently in the top 15 in fantasy points. Chase is a whole other beast and should feast again on Sunday night.