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Which players are poised to put up major numbers in Week 12? The data appears to have an answer. See which individuals will be difference-makers for their teams (and your fantasy football squad) on Sunday.
A lot has changed in New York this week but one constant remains: rookie WR Malik Nabers is the heartbeat of the Giants’ offense. Nabers has 28.9% and 41% of Big Blue’s targets and air yards this season, respectively. Both marks stand as the fourth-highest rates in the NFL despite Nabers missing two games with injuries, per Next Gen Stats. Nabers has also received double-digit targets in all but two games played this season. How might a QB swap affect those numbers?
In nine games played for New York last season (six starts), newly-minted QB1 Tommy DeVito averaged only a 7.3% deep pass percentage. Look for Nabers to serve as a safety blanket in the short and intermediate areas, where the rookie has accumulated 540 of his 607 receiving yards so far. However, if DeVito -- whose passer rating on deep passes in 2023 (92.6) outpaced Daniel Jones' in 2024 (66.7) -- opts to take more shots downfield, it could elevate Nabers’ game to a new level entirely.
The DeVito-Nabers connection gets a soft test early as they face a Buccaneers pass defense that ranks No. 30 overall. Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, so it’s a safe bet that Nabers will take advantage and show out at the Meadowlands on Sunday. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Nabers’ effectiveness in the intermediate area.)
Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
Through his eight games played this season, Malik Nabers has averaged a league-high 11.8 targets per game and hit double-digit targets in six of his last seven. The six wideouts to earn double-digit targets against Tampa Bay’s questionable secondary this season have averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game. Plus, believe it or not, new starting QB Tommy DeVito has a higher yards per attempt, passer rating and touchdown rate than Daniel Jones since debuting last season. It’s all systems go for Nabers.
Swifties, rejoice! Travis Kelce is set to put on a show as electric as his appearance on Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour.” Kelce admittedly had a quiet Week 11 outing in Buffalo, but that was an outlier. Before last Sunday, Kelce led all Chiefs with 12 or more targets in three consecutive games -- even after Kansas City traded for WR DeAndre Hopkins ahead of Week 8.
Kelce remains Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target. Kansas City’s all-time receiving leader tops the Chiefs in targets, receptions and receiving yards this season by a large margin. His 80 targets nearly double the next highest count (Xavier Worthy’s 48). After being targeted on just 14.6% of his routes in Weeks 1-3, Kelce has been targeted on 29.2% of his routes since Week 4 and leads all tight ends in receptions over that span (54), per Next Gen Stats.
Week 12 promises bounce-back potential for Kelce. The Panthers have allowed a league-high 132.1 passer rating to tight ends in 2024. Carolina is tied for the most TDs given up to tight ends (7) and has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position. The Panthers also rank No. 31 in pressure rate, meaning Mahomes should have plenty of time to do what he does best: ad-lib as Kelce finds a soft spot within the defense. The Chiefs are ready to rebound from their first loss of the season and Kelce should be a force within their winning formula. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Kelce’s catches this season when Mahomes took over 2.5 seconds to throw.)
Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
After cresting 15 fantasy points five times in a six-game span, Travis Kelce posted a Week 11 dud against the Bills. Fortunately, no team has allowed more touchdowns or a higher passer rating to tight ends than the Panthers. Also, the entire Kansas City passing game struggled against Buffalo. With a major matchup advantage versus Carolina’s defense, we can expect that to course correct in Week 12 and Kelce --- who’s averaged 9.7 targets per game since Week 4 -- to capitalize.
In the battle of the Harbaugh brothers, all eyes should be on Justin Herbert. Herbert, who is playing risk-free football with a 13:1 TD to INT ratio, has led the Chargers to five wins in their last six games. Herbert’s confidence is rising as is his volume. Since Week 7, Herbert has thrown 32-plus pass attempts in four of six games and has been involved on designed QB runs, becoming a dual threat. That has kept defenses honest, allowing Herbert to increase his play action rate from 27% to 34.1% since the Bolts’ Week 5 bye.
But Herbert’s arm is still his greatest gift. Herbert has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions while tallying the second-most passing yards on deep passes (20+ air yards). And his Week 12 opponent struggles to cover the deep ball. Baltimore’s 32nd-ranked pass defense has allowed the second-most yards (634) and is tied for the most TDs (7) given up on deep passes. Per NFL Pro, the Bolts hold key advantages over the Ravens in all 12 passing categories.
John Harbaugh’s defense ranks No. 31 overall in passing TDs (22 allowed) and deep passing. Opposing offenses have noticed and are attacking through the air with a 65.2% pass play percentage, the second-highest share in the NFL. Expect Jim Harbaugh to follow suit and unleash “Beast Herbert” in what will likely become an offensive slugfest. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Herbert’s success on deep passes this season.)
Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
Over the past month, Justin Herbert has come alive in the Los Angeles offense, averaging 255.5 passing yards per game with seven touchdowns, zero interceptions and 21.9 fantasy points per game. He just tagged the Bengals -- the fourth-best fantasy matchup for QBs in 2024 -- for 24.4 points and now draws the Ravens … one of the three better matchups on paper. Prior to a strong game against the Steelers, Baltimore had allowed 26.1 fantasy points per game to the QB position over the prior six weeks. Herbert has the makings of the QB1 overall in Week 12.