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Week 16 means we are officially one week away from the fantasy football championships! It’s crunch time and the data has spoken, so check out which players should help push you to the brink of glory this weekend.
Allen is soaring away in the NFL’s MVP race. Allen, who just earned this third AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors this season, has donned his Superman cape to help the Bills reach a new level in 2024. And Allen heats up as the weather gets colder. Buffalo’s superstar QB leads the NFL with 6,937 offensive yards and 70 offensive TDs in December and January since 2020, 22 more scores than any other player in the league over that span, per Next Gen Stats. He’s won 16 of his last 17 regular season games in those months, too.
Allen, who is making history on what feels like a weekly basis, has been unstoppable this month. Over the past four weeks, Allen has been the top overall fantasy scorer, tacking on eight passing TDs, seven rushing TDs and a receiving TD while turning the ball over just once. His Bills have won eight of their last nine games and have scored 30+ points in eight consecutive matchups, tied for the longest streak in a single season in NFL history.
His Week 16 opponents have not found as much success. The Patriots, whom Allen has beaten in four of their last five meetings, are riding a four-game losing streak and have given up 25 or more points in each of those losses. Allen has thrown a league-high 16 TDs when blitzed and New England has allowed 13 passing TDs (tied for the most in the NFL) when blitzing. The truth is Allen would run past -- and through -- any opponent he faces this week, but a favorable, familiar foe has Buffalo’s Superman poised to keep flying high. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Allen beating the blitz through the air.)
Fantasy Outlook (from NFL.com's Matt Okada)
Allen has posted 40-plus fantasy points in back-to-back games and a whopping 145.56 points over his last four -- for reference, Drake Maye has scored 149.82 points all season. Allen is the hottest player in fantasy and probably the hottest we’ve seen since 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson. Meanwhile, the Patriots have allowed 21.9 fantasy points per game to QBs over the last month. The biggest threat to Allen’s fantasy line is the chance he’ll be resting by the third quarter, but you can still expect 25-30 points before he takes a seat.
Evans turned back the clock with a two-TD showing in Week 15 and he should continue turning heads against the Cowboys. Tampa Bay’s veteran WR needs to average 83.7 receiving yards over his final three games to extend his NFL-record streak of 1,000-yard seasons to start a career to 11, per Next Gen Stats. And QB Baker Mayfield desperately wants to help Evans get there. After being targeted on only 25.0% of his routes from Weeks 1-7, Evans has been targeted on 32.4% of his routes and has generated +113 receiving yards over expected since Week 12.
Evans’ increasing target share should signal a big day against a defense that is stretched thin. Evans has recorded a league-high 325 receiving yards against off coverage since the Buccaneers’ Week 11 bye, while Dallas plays off-coverage at the NFL’s sixth-highest rate (65.9%). The Cowboys have also seen seven different CBs play over 150 snaps this season, tied for the most in any season in the Next Gen Stats era. America’s Team has given up the third-most fantasy points to WRs over the last two weeks and the loss of star CB Trevon Diggs won’t make things any easier. Evans, a native of Galveston, Texas, is headed toward history and a happy homecoming. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Evans’ success against off-coverage.)
Fantasy Outlook (from Okada)
In his four games since returning from injury in Week 12, Evans has averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game. Additionally, he is just 251 yards away from an 11th straight 1,000-yard season, which would break a tie with Randy Moss for the second-most such seasons in NFL history and match Jerry Rice for the longest streak ever. It’s going to happen. This matchup with the Cowboys -- who have improved on offense but allowed a 20-point wide receiver in three of their last four games -- promises fireworks. Evans should eat again.
Jacobs has been on a touchdown tear. Jacobs has scored 11 of his 12 rushing TDs since Week 8, the most in the NFL over that span, per Next Gen Stats. Green Bay’s new RB has become the engine of its offense, reaching pay dirt at least once in each of his last five games and recording two three-TD days for good measure. Jacobs has prided himself on being difficult to bring down as his 89 forced missed tackles stand as the league’s second-highest mark this season.
Those trends should continue in Week 16. New Orleans, who is giving up the 10th-most fantasy points to RBs this season, ranks No. 27 in run defense overall. To make matters worse, the Saints are tied for 31st in rushing yards per play allowed (4.9), rank 30th in run stuff rate (12.3%) and are at a matchup-specific disadvantage in nine of NFL Pro’s 10 rushing categories. Look for Jacobs to attack the interior of New Orleans’ defensive line as he boasts a league-high 784 rushing yards on inside carries this year.
With QB Derek Carr out for New Orleans and possible snow showers reaching Lambeau Field on Monday night, the game script should favor a heavy dose of Jacobs. A lot has been made of free-agent acquisitions Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry – and rightfully so – but Jacobs is quietly pacing behind them as the NFL’s third-leading rusher. After Week 16, the chatter around Jacobs might not be so quiet. (Check out this All-22 playlist of Jacobs’ effectiveness on inside carries.)
Fantasy Outlook (from Okada)
Imagine, if you will, a player with 12 rushing touchdowns on the year -- tied for third-most by a running back -- taking on a defense that has allowed 14 to the position … tied for third-most by any team. Now stop imagining: He’s real, and his name is Josh Jacobs. The Packers RB has logged 20-plus fantasy points in five straight games and seven of his last eight, and the Packers are projected to absolutely wallop the Saints on Monday night. Jacobs has a very good chance at 25-30 touches and multiple touchdowns.