Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. In today's installment, he evaluates six quarterbacks who have received lucrative new contracts this offseason, and one Pro Bowl passer who notably hasn't ...
The quarterback market is booming.
This offseason, a group of signal-callers inked blockbuster deals that have blown up the pay scale for passers. As more quarterbacks breeze past the velvet ropes into the "$50 Million Club," executives, scouts and coaches have to be wondering: Will this latest collection of big-money passers give their respective teams a solid return on their investments?
Here's a look at the biggest QB contracts signed this offseason:
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Five years, $275 million ($55 million per year)
- Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Four years, $220 million ($55 million per year)
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: Four years, $212.4 million ($53.1 million per year)
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: Four years, $212 million ($53 million per year)
- Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: Four years, $180 million ($45 million per year)
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Three years, $100 million ($33.3 million per year)
After reviewing and researching these QBs, here is how I would rank them, based on their expected impact in 2024 and beyond:
WHY HE’S WORTH IT: Winning pedigree
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft captained the 2018 Rams to a Super Bowl appearance, and now he has the Lions on the verge of cementing their status as perennial contenders in the NFC. The veteran has flourished in Ben Johnson's offense, displaying superb accuracy and ball placement distributing passes to a group of blue-chip playmakers on the perimeter. Last season, he ranked seventh in the NFL in completion rate (67.3%) and 11th in TD-to-INT ratio (30:12). The aerial attack is impossible to defend, anchored by receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams and tight end Sam LaPorta, and it's complemented by a punishing ground game, sparked by David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions' crafty quarterback routinely chalks up wins showcasing his exceptional managerial and playmaking skills.
WHY IT’S RISKY: Potentially limited ceiling
Even as Goff's blue-collar approach has transformed a cellar-dweller into a contender in Motown, skeptics wonder if the Lions' QB1 can win a shootout against an elite quarterback in the playoffs. Yes, he's a two-time Pro Bowler with Super Bowl experience, but he has yet to crack 300 yards in a single postseason appearance, and he's thrown more than one TD pass in just one of his eight playoff appearances. The Lions committed top-five money to a quarterback viewed as a high-end game manager. If he fails to elevate his performance in January and February, the team might not recoup a full return on its investment.
WHY HE'S WORTH IT: MVP-caliber talent
The Packers' surprising re-emergence as a title contender was fueled by Love's sensational play from the pocket. He played at an MVP level down the stretch last season, logging 21 touchdown passes and one interception from Week 11 through the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. The outstanding run confirmed his MVP-caliber talent to his teammates and coaches, eventually prompting general manager Brian Gutekunst to open up the checkbook and give Love an extension that put him in a tie (with Joe Burrow and the next player on this list) for highest-paid player in NFL history. Given the opportunity to secure stability at a position manned by gold jacket-caliber players in Green Bay (Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers) over the past 30-plus years, the Packers were wise to hand the bag to someone who looks like a future legend.
WHY IT'S RISKY: The chance he's a one-year wonder
Setting aside that sizzling stint that catapulted the Packers into the postseason, the team paid a top-of-market price for a quarterback who has an 18-game resume as a starter and a career winning percentage of .500 (9-9). We had to wait three seasons to see the 2020 first-round pick in meaningful action, and his first nine games at the helm last season were a mixed bag (223 passing yards per game with a TD-to-INT ratio of 14:10). The Packers had a small sample size with which to determine if Love is a blue-chip quarterback or a streaky gunslinger who heated up at the right time. The talent and potential pop when I study his game, but he's still a young, relatively unproven playmaker, and this deal was a dice roll by the team.
WHY HE'S WORTH IT: Talent and potential
The No. 1 overall pick in 2021 has steadied the franchise as a reliable presence with blue-chip talent. Since linking up with Doug Pederson in 2022, Lawrence has posted back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons with a 46:22 touchdown-to-interception ratio, suggesting he could soon join the ranks of the elite. He has a dynamic cast of playmakers around him, including co-No. 1 options Christian Kirk and Evan Engram on the perimeter and a pair of new vertical threats (Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr.). Lawrence should flourish utilizing a "connect the dots" approach that prioritizes efficiency over explosive plays. The young gunslinger has limitless potential, and it's easy to see why the Jaguars were willing to gamble on his upside and talent.
WHY IT'S RISKY: Turnovers
There is no denying Lawrence's ability, but his turnover woes are a considerable concern. In three pro seasons, he's recorded 60 career turnovers, including 21 giveaways in 2023 (14 interceptions and seven fumbles lost), third-most in the league. Moreover, his ball security issues (he had 10 total turnovers over his final five games last year) contributed to an epic late-season collapse by the Jaguars that kept them out of the postseason after an 8-3 start. Yes, the team's inconsistent running game and leaky pass protection contributed to Lawrence's troubles, but if the Jags are to maximize their potential as an offensive juggernaut, Lawrence needs to curb his turnover habits.
WHY HE'S WORTH IT: Tua makes this speedy squad go.
The Dolphins have assembled an Olympic-caliber track team on the perimeter, with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Odell Beckham Jr., Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane and others blazing across the turf like a collection of world-class sprinters cruising around the Stade de France.
With Tagovailoa operating like a Las Vegas card dealer slinging winning hands at the blackjack table, the Dolphins' RPO-based offense overwhelmed opponents with its sheer speed and explosiveness. He is a pinpoint passer with a quick release and exceptional anticipation, ranking fifth in completion rate (69.3%) last season even as he paced the NFL in total passing yards (4,624). The fifth-year pro is the perfect QB1 for coach Mike McDaniel's rhythmic offense.
WHY IT'S RISKY: Injury history
Even amid Tagovailoa's spectacular production under McDaniel, one concern stands out: The Pro Bowler's medical chart is littered with significant injuries, including concussion issues in 2022 and lower-body injuries at Alabama, with a devastating hip injury prematurely ending his college career. He missed nine games in 2021 and '22, including Miami's loss to Buffalo in the 2022 playoffs. That said, he didn't miss a game last season, improving his mark as starter to a robust 32-19 -- highlighting just how important it is that he is able to stay in the lineup.
WHY HE’S WORTH IT: Swagger and spirals
The 2018 No. 1 overall pick found his groove as Tampa’s starting quarterback last season. Mayfield sparked the offense with his confidence, toughness and ability to throw darts from the pocket. While the Buccaneers' talented pass catchers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) certainly deserve a share of the credit for Mayfield's success in 2023, the eighth-year pro more than earned his Comeback Player of the Year votes by operating like a pass-first point guard hitting his playmakers in stride on fast breaks. With Mayfield also tapping into Rachaad White as a runner-receiver, the Buccaneers’ offense forces opponents to defend every blade of grass from sideline-to-sideline and end zone-to-end zone. In a league ruled by quarterback play, Mayfield gives the Bucs the best opportunity to run it back in the NFC South after winning the division last season.
WHY IT’S RISKY: His journeyman's game
One of the league’s best comeback stories must continue to prove he has the potential to consistently play at a high level in a tweaked scheme with a new play-caller. While the ex-Browns QB worked diligently to bounce back from a disappointing run that included stints with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams, the jury is still out as to whether the 29-year-old can sustain success over the long haul.
WHY HE’S WORTH IT: Consistency and experience
After watching their super-talented offense struggle due to poor quarterback play last season, the Falcons paid Cousins big bucks to stabilize the position. As a four-time Pro Bowler with a 270:110 TD-to-INT ratio, 98.2 passer rating and seven 4,000-yard seasons over a 12-year career, the veteran is the consistent leader the Falcons need to unlock the potential of a unit that features three consecutive top-10 picks: Bijan Robinson (2023), Drake London (2022) and Kyle Pitts (2021). If Cousins fully recovers from the Achilles injury that prematurely ended his 2023 campaign, the Falcons definitely have a shot to take the NFC South this season.
WHY IT’S RISKY: Age, injuries and the new QB2
The Tom Brady effect has led to more quarterbacks playing into their 40s, but it is still rare for a passer to continue to play at an elite level nearing the twilight of his career. Though Cousins has shown no signs of falling off and was actually playing some of his best ball last season, the veteran’s age (he turns 36 this month) and injury history, along with the Falcons' selection of a young quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.) at No. 8 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, could make his stint in Atlanta a short one. Despite the team committing $100 million in total guarantees to the veteran, the Falcons have his heir apparent in the fold, and it is only a matter of time before the promising big-armed gunslinger takes over as QB1. If the transition happens in 2024 or '25, when they owe $90 million of that guaranteed money to Cousins, the Falcons will have wasted significant resources on a veteran passer that could otherwise have been used to upgrade different parts of the roster.
Where would Dak Prescott rank?
Dak Prescott is entering a contract season as one of the most high-profile and accomplished quarterbacks to potentially hit the free-agent market. The three-time Pro Bowler is coming off a career year in which he led the NFL in completions and touchdown passes while guiding the Cowboys to their third straight 12-win season. Prescott's critics will point to his disappointing performance in the postseason as a potential concern, but the 31-year-old veteran has topped the 4,000-yard mark three times, including twice in the three seasons he's played since signing a four-year, $160 million extension. Based on the way he's performed while under center for "America's Team," along with the maturity and leadership skills he's shown, Prescott has demonstrated he is built to handle the spotlight that shines on big-money quarterbacks. Given how rare it is to find a QB1 as consistent and productive as Prescott on the open market, the 2016 Offensive Rookie of the Year could push quarterback compensation levels into the $60 million-per-year range.