Ravens-Bills: Three things to watch for during 2025 Divisional Round on Sunday

Here are three things to watch for when the Ravens visit the Bills in Sunday's Divisional Round matchup:

1) Can the Ravens rattle Josh Allen again? With just over six minutes left in the teams’ Week 4 meeting, Allen and the Bills trailed, 21-10, with the ball in Baltimore territory. The Ravens blew up the Bills’ trick-play attempt and forced a fumble on Allen to snuff out Buffalo’s biggest remaining threat.

All game Allen was under fire, seemingly unable to find open looks from the pocket. It took some ingenuity and fortune to complete some passes, such as the 52-yard miracle to Khalil Shakir, which made up nearly a third of Allen’s 180 passing yards that night.

Allen was sacked a season-high three times in Week 4, taking eight hits. Kyle Van Noy giving trouble to Spencer Brown, one of the best right tackles in the NFL, really threw off the Bills offense’s timing. That’s not going to work in the rematch. The Bills have been pass-protecting at an elite rate since Week 11, as Allen has been sacked three times over the past seven games, although two of them came last week versus Denver in the Wild Card Round.

The problem for Buffalo is that the Ravens have improved markedly since then on defense. Through 10 games, they were allowing 367.9 yards and 25.3 points per game. Over the past eight contests, including Saturday's wild-card win over the Steelers, they’ve improved those averages to 264.0 and 15.4, respectively, shaving off more than 100 yards and nearly 10 points per game allowed.

The insertion of Ar'Darius Washington and Nate Wiggins into the starting secondary, which freed up veteran safety Kyle Hamilton more, has worked wonders. The Ravens also have tweaked the LB rotation effectively and have cut down significantly on penalties and explosive plays allowed, forcing teams to grind out long drives. Baltimore likes to disguise blitz looks and back out, also rotating their safeties late to confuse quarterbacks.

The Bills likely will look for more small profits on Sunday. The first meeting was too all or nothing in the pass game. Baltimore gave Allen plenty of man-coverage looks, but he just couldn’t exploit them. Expect coordinator Joe Brady to dial up some quick hitters and crossers to attack more underneath, much like the Bills did against the Broncos last week.

Allen hit on four throws 20-plus yards downfield, but he was also highly proficient hitting throws 15 yards and in. He’s also been spreading the ball around effectively, which makes the Bills harder to defend. Shakir might be the de facto WR1, but almost any of their primary pass catchers can assume that role in any given game.

2) Ravens’ offense presents many problems for Buffalo’s D. The Bills also had their hands full in the first meeting with Jackson and Derrick Henry right from the start. Henry ripped off an 87-yard TD run on his first carry, adding two long runs in the second half for good measure. Jackson didn’t put up monster numbers but was efficient all game outside of his third-quarter strip-sack.

The Bills had two big defensive issues that night: tackling and covering. Their problem with Henry was letting him get out on the edge. The Bills’ front clogged up the middle but lost contain several times. That was tough enough. Making it worse, Jackson threw only 18 passes, but 13 of them came with his receivers gaining 3-plus yards of separation, per Next Gen Stats. He also gained 19 rush yards over expected on only six scrambles.

One big change from that game is the Bills’ LB corps. Veteran Matt Milano had not yet returned to the lineup from tearing his biceps in August, and Terrel Bernard missed that stretch of the season. Backups Dorian Williams and Baylon Spector struggled to replace them. Milano has settled in since returning to the field in Week 13, and Bernard looked good last week against the Broncos.

The biggest question for the Ravens is the health of Pro Bowl wide receiver Zay Flowers, who missed last week’s wild-card game and who is doubtful to play Sunday as he recovers from a Week 18 knee injury. He wasn’t a big factor when these teams played on Sept. 29, catching one pass on two targets for 10 yards, but not having him would be limiting against a Bills secondary that has been vulnerable to explosive pass plays.

The good news for Baltimore is that tight end Mark Andrews and wide receiver Rashod Bateman have emerged as go-to threats down the stretch, giving Jackson plenty of options. Running back Justice Hill was also a big factor as a receiver in the first matchup, catching all six of his targets for 78 yards and a 19-yard TD. Henry also caught a TD pass that night.

But the Bills can live with the Ravens throwing to Henry. They’re more concerned with keeping Henry in check on the ground and not letting Jackson beat them with his legs. The key is a disciplined rush approach that aims to encircle Jackson as opposed to hell-bent rushes off the edge. The Bills don’t blitz much and are likely to play a lot of zone defense, so that means the front four must get home.

The Ravens had some protection issues in most of their losses this season. Can the Bills’ front four do its job to slow this unit down? That’s a major question heading into Sunday. Buffalo is also a turnover-dependent defense that’s facing a Ravens team with only 11 giveaways in 18 games, counting playoffs.

3) Cook has to have his touches. Part of the Bills’ balanced offensive approach has been trusting the ground game more, especially in the red zone. Running back James Cook had similar offensive volume in 2023 and 2024, but he improved his rush-TD total from two to 16 in the two seasons.

Lifting some of the run-game burden from Allen seems to have helped the Bills avoid asking their quarterback to bail them out of bad situations. The Week 4 loss to the Ravens was one of the few times this season when Allen was put in too many of those spots.

Cook was limited to 10 touches (nine carries) in the first meeting, partly because the Ravens scored on their first three possessions and led, 21-3, midway through the second quarter. Most of Cook's touches were first-down runs, and he had trouble finding early creases. His evening was basically over early in the fourth quarter with the Ravens up big.

The Bills know they can’t repeat this script. Cook has to be involved early and often, both as a runner and receiver. Complicating matters is that rookie running back Ray Davis, who had carved out a nice complementary role, left the wild-card game with a concussion and is questionable for Sunday. Ty Johnson, who had a TD in the first meeting and who made the play of the game in last week's win over the Broncos on his fourth-and-1 TD catch, likely would step into that role.

Since their Week 14 bye, the Ravens have bottled up opponents’ run games. The Steelers' 117 rushing yards against them in Week 16 marks the only time Baltimore has allowed a team to run for more than 58 against them over that span. In their Wild Card Round loss, the Steelers totaled just 29 yards on the ground. The Ravens tackle well on the perimeter, and Hamilton, linebacker Roquan Smith and a strong defensive front all have made big impacts.

The Bills have embraced heavy formations, using at least one extra offensive lineman on nearly 15% of plays this season, according to Next Gen Stats, which was twice as often or more than all but one team (Tennessee) this season. It has been a staple of the Bills' offense all season, save for the Week 18 game when they sat many starters at New England.

In the wild-card win against Denver, the extra-OL rate was 22.2% (16 of 72 plays). If you go small and fast defensively against the Bills, they’ll counter with more beef up front. Denver was the top-ranked team in the regular season in pass-rush efficiency; Baltimore ranked sixth. It’s fair to say the Bills would like to come heavy again on Sunday.

But Alec Anderson, who almost always serves as the Bills’ sixth O-lineman, suffered a calf injury against the Broncos. He did return to the game after leaving and is off the injury report for Sunday.