Can you believe it's the seventh season of the RB Index? That's right: Lucky No. 7! Which means all of my takes in this space for the 2024 NFL campaign are bound to be 100 percent accurate. Obviously.
So, now that we're officially in Week 1, it's high time to predict the top 10 leading rushers -- just as I did at this point last year.
Before we jump into my projection, though, I want to remind you that I'll start my weekly ranking of the top 15 running backs next week, following the opening slate of games.
OK, let's get to it.
I’d be lying if I told you I considered putting anyone but McCaffrey at the top of this list. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year led the league with a career-high 1,459 rushing yards in 2023. The 49ers' offense is full of superstars, but no one makes Kyle Shanahan’s unit go like McCaffrey, who ranks third all time with 115.4 scrimmage yards per game (min. 75 games). It should be another résumé-building campaign for the three-time Pro Bowler.
The fact that Henry feels “right at home” alongside Lamar Jackson in the Ravens' offense should both terrify defenses and excite football fans. After all, each of those playmakers leads his respective position in carries and rushing yards since 2018. Henry’s physicality perfectly complements Jackson’s breakneck speed in Baltimore's ground attack -- much like thunder and lightning in a Midwest June sky. The 30-year-old RB has become so accustomed to facing stacked boxes -- encountering them on 36.6 percent of his carries in his career, per Next Gen Stats, most in the NFL since 2016 -- that he's surely thrilled to share a backfield with a quarterback who demands significant attention on every play. "King Henry" is about to feast.
Hall wasn’t nearly as efficient last year as he was in his rookie season -- before tearing his ACL in Week 7. Initially, it's hard to trust your body when returning from such a serious injury, and the Jets’ dismal quarterback situation after Aaron Rodgers' injury didn’t do Hall any favors last season. Now, nearly two years removed from the physical setback, the healthy Hall's had the entire offseason to prepare for what should be a big year. I expect him to be an asset in the passing game -- he led the team in receiving TDs (four) and finished second in receptions (76) in 2023 -- but he’ll do most of his damage on the ground behind an overhauled offensive line.
Williams is coming off a breakout season that saw him rush for 1,144 rushing yards, third-most in the NFL, on 228 carries (5.0 yards per attempt). If the 24-year-old stays healthy in his second season as the featured back in Sean McVay’s offense, I see no reason to believe his production will fall -- even with him picking up return duties. He's a special talent who provides plenty of balance in this attack.
Since 2021, when Jalen Hurts took over as Philadelphia's full-time starting quarterback, the Eagles’ rushing attack hasn’t ranked worse than eighth in the league. That success should continue with Barkley joining the backfield. Despite Philly boasting top talent in the passing game, Saquon will get plenty of opportunities. The 1,000-yard mark should be the floor if Barkley can stay healthy, while a career high in rush yards is very much on the table if he can make the most of his touches.
Taylor has missed 13 games over the last two seasons, so he hasn’t been the otherworldly presence we saw in 2021, when he led the league in carries (332), rushing yards (1,811) and rushing touchdowns (18). I won’t be shocked if Taylor gets back to that level of production in 2024, especially if Shane Steichen leans on the explosive back in an effort to protect Anthony Richardson. But if Richardson gets ample opportunity in the run game -- which would take this offense up a notch while potentially putting the second-year QB at more risk for injury -- Taylor’s numbers could feel the impact.
The Dolphins have so many mouths to feed on offense that it’s fair to wonder if Mostert will get enough burn to be a top-10 rusher. I get that and figure the veteran won’t get as many carries as others on this list, especially with him sharing the backfield with De'Von Achane, Jeff Wilson Jr. and rookie Jaylen Wright. However, the "underrated" Mostert is always a threat to gain 10- or 20-plus yards thanks to his elite speed. It’s all about quality over quantity for this Pro Bowler, who's averaging 5.2 yards per carry over his career.
I talked about the thunder-and-lightning combo with the Ravens, and the Lions feature a similar duo with David Montgomery (thunder) and Gibbs (lightning). In the 2023 regular season, Montgomery had 37 more carries than Gibbs. I don’t see that being the case this season, with the second-year back posing such a threat to defenses with the ball in his hands. Gibbs should easily build on his strong rookie production.
I predicted Jacobs to lead the league in rushing yards a year ago. Then he recorded a career-low 805 rush yards while missing four games with a quad injury in his final season with the Raiders. It wasn't great. But now in Green Bay -- where last year's leader in carries, AJ Dillon, is now unfortunately out for the season -- Jacobs is in a stellar position to have a bounce-back campaign. I expect Matt LaFleur will lean on the marquee free-agent signing to help control the clock and take some pressure off Jordan Love, who enters the season with huge expectations after leading Green Bay to the Divisional Round in his first year as the starter.
In my recent RB1 rankings article, I had Mixon slotted in at No. 21. So why does he crack the top 10 here? Mixon had more than 1,000 rushing yards four times in his seven seasons with Cincinnati -- and 1,250-plus scrimmage yards in five of his last six campaigns. The Texans haven’t had a running back who has consistently produced since Arian Foster, but that will change with Mixon in the backfield. He’ll get a bevy of carries on early downs, even with the strength of this offense being C.J. Stroud and the pass game. Long story short: I think this situation could prove highly beneficial to the 28-year-old back.