When it came to rookies and fantasy football, it was almost always the running backs that made the biggest impact. Whether it was Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, Fred Taylor or Matt Forte (to name just a few), owners knew that it was possible to hit on a draft bargain by taking a first-year back.
That was then, however, and this is now.
The NFL has evolved into a passing league where featured runners are scarce while quarterbacks and wideouts rule the roost. That was never more evident than in 2011, when rookies like Cam Newton, A.J. Green and Julio Jones burned up the stat sheets.
Newton finished with a ridiculous 369.34 fantasy points, which ranked him third among all players, not just quarterbacks. Green posted 1,057 yards with eight touchdowns and finished 14th among all wide receivers, while Jones just missed the 1,000-yard receiving mark and found the end zone eight times.
How did the rookie runners fare, you might ask? Well, it wasn't good.
DeMarco Murray was the top-scoring back with 119.80 fantasy points -- that ranked him a meager 30th at the position and just sixth overall among all first-year players. Roy Helu was 33rd at running back, and Mark Ingram ranked 45th. While none of these three players started a full slate of games due to backfield committees, injuries or a combination of both, the trend of rookie runners making less of an impact is disturbing -- and it's been moving in this direction for the last three seasons.
The best finish a first-year back has had in that time is Knowshon Moreno, who was 17th in fantasy points (138.20) in 2009. That made him a low-end No. 2 runner in a standard 10-team league. Jahvid Best was the top rookie runner in 2010, and he finished a mediocre 22nd with 138.20 fantasy points. By comparison, James, Portis, Taylor and Forte all finished with at least 240 points (and in the top 10 at their position overall) in their respective rookie campaigns.
Clearly, there's been a significant statistical decrease.
As we look ahead to the 2012 NFL Draft class, there are a number of potential fantasy-impact makers and at least three players in particular who could turn into legitimate fantasy starters right out of the gate. Not surprisingly, only one is a back -- and even his value depends on the team that drafts him.
Here's a look at some of the big names you'll want to keep tabs on when the draft proceedings go down in the Big Apple.
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: The expected No. 1 overall selection, Luck has been called the most NFL-ready quarterback to come out of college since John Elway. He has all the intangibles needed to succeed -- Luck even called his own plays last year at Stanford -- and will be taken in all seasonal fantasy drafts. The talented signal-caller will also be the top pick in a high number of dynasty leagues.
Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor:RG3 is getting a ton of hype in fantasy land because of the comparisons he draws to Newton, who was a stat-sheet monster as a rookie. In reality, Griffin is closer to Michael Vick if we want to line him up with a current NFL quarterback. Regardless, his skill set and upside alone will make him valuable -- he'll even be selected ahead of Luck in many fantasy formats.
Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock called Richardson the best running back prospect to come out of college since Adrian Peterson in 2007. That's pretty high praise. And while we have seen a decline in value for rookie runners over the last three seasons, Richardson could be the exception if he lands with a team that allows him a chance at a prominent role in the offense.
Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: Blackmon, who reminds me of Terrell Owens, is widely considered the best wide receiver in what is a deep class at the position. In fact, he's considered to be a better player coming out of college than Oklahoma State predecessor Dez Bryant. In the event that Blackmon lands with a team where he can start immediately, he'll be a middle-rounder in seasonal drafts.
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: A potential fantasy sleeper, Floyd has drawn comparisons to Larry Fitzgerald for his size and athleticism. Aside from the talented Notre Dame product, other rookies to watch include Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill, Boise State RB Doug Martin, Virginia Tech RB David Wilson, Miami RB Lamar Miller, Baylor WR Kendall Wright and Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to **@Michael_Fabiano** or send a question via **Facebook**!