Some fantasy musings as I try to recover from seeing an ad during "Monday Night Football" that directed you to log onto Time Life-slash-Nazi. Man, that was a major curveball from the familiar retinue of beer and vehicles.
I thought our apocalypse now plate was full to the brim thanks to Snooki and The Situation, but apparently I was wrong. Now, one of the most respected names in publishing wants to, as they like to say in the entertainment biz, "repurpose" some scary Nazi footage? It's the third quarter of a good game, and suddenly I feel like I dozed off and woke up at 4 a.m., the proper time for creepy, consignment commercial advertising.
Speaking of scary stuff you weren't anticipating, we may only be two games into the NFL season but admit it -- some of your fantasy football lineups are starting to disorient and scare the crap out of you.
In my experience, FF regret often tends to hover around the players you picked in round two and your last six picks. Case in point: Braylon Edwards. Often an afterthought, he was there late for a number one-ish receiver. If you picked him, you were panicked after Week 1, and then delighted to see the numbers he posted in the Jets' Week 2 win over New England to the point you thought you might have gotten a steal… only to come crashing down again upon the news that he apparently is too stupid or too cheap to use a freaking car service.
Either way, to Jets Nation I want to say a quick "you're welcome" for setting a fire under your team after last week's column. I have clearly outed myself as a knee-jerk, fast-twitch over-reactor, and it's not going to stop me from jumping on some early, yet seemingly catastrophic fantasy football scenarios.
This year, I have more teams than I have spam emails offering to hook me up with hillbilly heroin, so trust me, I'm feeling you on more than a few of these scenarios.
Gambles paying off
Jay Cutler: I am starting to realize that my general mistrust of the Cutler/Mike Martz marriage is shaping up to be a major boner. If you really believe there's a QB you can draft in round seven who will get top five numbers, your draft gets soooo much easier. You sit back and stuff your roster with the best players available and avoid having to chase RB and WR reaches. Of course, you have to get it right, and this is starting to look very right, indeed.
Matt Forte: Sticking with the Bears, this cat left such a dreadful taste in your mouth last year he felt like fantasy kryptonite. Toss Chester Taylor into the mix and you wondered who was going to thrive in the Martz system. Well folks, we have our answer, and another reason to feel incredibly stupid for passing him up for Marion Barber.
Jahvid Best vs. C.J. Spiller: We all knew that one of these rookies was going to be a great value pick, and by the time the preseason wrapped they were neck and neck… thud. Those of you who realized Best was actually getting plugged into a viable NFL offense and Spiller wasn't have won this one. Spiller was virtually benched in Week 2 (however temporary in the name of trade bait), while Best blew up on the ground and in the air, lighting the lamp three times. He is one of those guys who will win a lot of owners trophies.
**Mike Williams*** (Tampa Bay):* The reports were glowing, but you found yourself thinking, "Yeah, but what's the No. 1 WR worth in that Bucs offense?" A lot, and if you were astute enough to pick him, he was a low, low pick.
Tim Hightower: This one actually had my Spidey sense tingling, because as I wrote in these virtual pages, I felt Beanie Wells was perhaps the most over-hyped player in fantasy this year. He was good in theory, but we hadn't seen it on the field, and now he's up on blocks.
Chris Cooley and Santana Moss: Simple math here. Donovan McNabb had to pass it to someone, right? Two quality vets are coming through in serious value territory.
Small flickers of hope
Larry Fitzgerald: Oh, don't get me wrong, he's not going to justify that second-round pick you spent on him, but this is a case of "you can't keep a dominator down." The QB mess here is brutal, and Derek Anderson seems to like Steve Breaston just as much as a target. But I gotta believe that changes.
Calvin Johnson: is like a mirror image of Fitzgerald, having lost his stud QB, and now Best is vulturing all that red-zone action. The returns aren't bad here; they just don't resemble what you had in mind.
Ryan Mathews: Nice talent, but he already got dinged up and missed out on a big game last weekend. He had big heat heading into your draft, you picked him really high, maybe even Round 1, and now you are in the fetal position.
Michael Turner: They say the groin is okay, but it makes you nervous because this guy is starting to look like he's going miss more than one game every year, and if you picked him in the top seven, that can kill you.
**Andre Johnson**: All the pieces are in place, but you probably used a No. 1 pick on him and it's all about the ankle now, my friends.
Queasy feeling in your nether regions
Maurice Jones-Drew: The consensus No. 3 overall pick is putting up journeyman numbers. Maybe those rumors of an injury might hold some water. Regardless, this is a team killer. When you draft that high, you just can't miss on the pick because by the time the serpentine wheel comes back around, you are down to felt on superstars. Ray Rice isn't exactly setting the world on fire, either, but that seems more like a temporary setback. I am worried here.
Michael Bush: It's not like he cost you a high pick, but Bush was one of those trendy late-round picks on the assumption that he was finally going to eclipse first-round bust Darren McFadden and be the alpha in Oakland. Shtoink! Bush gets hurt, McFadden decides not to go out like JaMarcus Russell, and now it looks like that ship has sailed. On the upside, bully for every owner who was crazy enough to take a flier on McFadden! One of the top names on my "don't go near him" list is No. 2 in yards gained so far. Don't you hate it when that happens, especially when you look over your team and realize you landed Steve Slaton two picks ahead of him?
Jamaal Charles: He's electric, he is a game-changer. But Thomas Jones has transformed him from spectacular to spotty. It's going to be one of those big game/mediocre game rollercoaster rides this year -- just what you don't want in a second-round pick.
Brent Celek: Boy, this one is starting to create a burning sensation. So much promise, particularly in PPR. Now we know he has zero connection with Mike Vick, and the Kevin Kolb experiment is off to an even slower start than expected.
Start planning for next year
Brett Favre and Percy Harvin: I won't even get into Sydney Rice for those of you who held your drafts the week before he was injured… We all had visions of 2009 here, didn't we? Favre as the 30-TD guy you could draft in round seven and Harvin, despite the migraines, using his awesome talent to step into Rice's role in an explosive offense? Cut to 2010… Favre looks like he aged 10 years in the offseason, he's running for his life behind a shaky line on a gimpy ankle, and every time he runs back to the sideline on fourth down he has a look on his face like he just got fleeced at a used car dealership. Pray for Vincent Jackson landing here, and grab him off the waiver wire if you can.
Shonn Greene vs. LT: Whoo-ee, this is starting to look like a team killer, including my WCOFF squad. Oh, how you wish you'd gone with Rashard Mendenhall here, right? But no, you had to get all fancy and gamble on big upside! Greene is fumbling, a very hungry LT is schooling him, and he is dragging your team down like an anchor. I am really not picking on the Jets, I come in praise of the front office and all fantasy owners who had the vision to realize LaDainian Tomlinson had some gas left in the tank behind a good line.
The fixes to these problems aren't exactly waving their arms in the corner of the end zone and yelling, "I'm open!" The one thing I noticed over and over in my drafts this year is that there were no sleepers. The mass obsession with fantasy football mixed with increased access to advanced analysis has knocked the dummies out of the game. If you wanted a player, you had to go get him, or watch that smug smile on your face go all crinkly when your super-secret little gems got picked 10 picks ahead of you, round after round. As a result, the waiver wire isn't as ripe with quick fixes.
Injuries can change that in a hurry, but it feels like you're going to be looking at trades more than ever, and we all know how rarely those work out. During Week 2, I got an offer to trade Clinton Portis and Chad Ochocinco for Arian Foster.
Here's to landing that practice squad tailback who jumps into the starting lineup after a runaway golf cart takes out all six guys ahead of him on the depth chart.